Research Digest

IVF's potential contribution to increasing fertility rates in Europe

IVF's potential to mitigate low fertility Across Europe, birth rates are falling and family sizes are shrinking. The total fertility rate is now less than two children per women in every nation of the EU, and 21 of the 25 lowest-fertility countries are in Europe. As a result, by 2050, one in three Europeans will be more than 65 years old, up from one in six in 2000. As European countries face fertility rates below those required to sustain replacement levels, many governments are becoming increasingly concerned about the socio-economic consequences and have taken or are considering policy measures.

Previous research done by RAND Europe has shown that no single policy can address the current demographic imbalances, which many view in critical proportions. Evidence shows that a mix of policies, particularly those that support childbearing, has the most impact.

The new research indicates that policies to influence the uptake of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART), such as IVF, could be considered part of a population policy mix to increase fertility in Europe. The number of couples who want but cannot have children due to infertility problems represents a growing part of the problem. It is thought that one couple in seven in the UK faces involuntary infertility.

The study examined the use of ART in the UK and Denmark to determine the impact of such treatment as In-Vitro Fertilisation (IVF) on fertility rates. The research indicates that if the number of ART cycles per million women in the UK were increased to levels similar to those in Denmark, the total fertility rate would increase by 0.04 children per woman. Since the existing contribution of ART to UK fertility is currently 0.02, the impact on the total fertility rate in the UK would then be 0.06 children per woman. While this impact appears small, it is comparable to that of other policies used to influence fertility, such as increasing European state-supported child benefits.

However, while the impact of ART on fertility rates could be positive, its contribution could be wiped out if women choose to postpone childbirth based on the prospect of successful ART treatment. Infertility rates rise dramatically among women over 35 who wait to have babies.

Although the label 'demographic crisis' is used to sum up the current situation in Europe, scientific and clinical successes that allow Europeans to live longer and healthier lives and choose when and how many children to have should be acknowledged. What this study also shows is that ART could be a part of a population policy mix, but that governments need a great deal more information, particularly regarding behavioural responses, before they can design ART policies that will achieve the desired effect.

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