Publications: Choice Modelling and Valuation
This project was undertaken to provide all the elements necessary to estimate the value of punctuality effects, and to calculate the impacts of punctuality improvements. The results have been used to develop a robust operational methodology that enables the user to assess possible alternative investments aimed at improving the quality of the suburban rail services to and from Paris.
Generalised extreme value models provide an interesting theoretical framework to develop closed-form random utility models.
On the Equivalence Between Elimination-By-Aspects and Generalised Extreme Value Models of Choice Behaviour — 2006
Elimination-by-aspects and generalised extreme value offer competing paradigms for the representation of a common behaviour, that of individual discrete choice.
This report details joint research by RAND Europe, City University and the Kings Fund to investigate which factors might drive patients’ choices at the point of referral. The team used stated preference discrete choice experiments to explore patients’ preferences, from which they estimate models that provide insights into the types of information patients require as well as the value patients place on hospitals’ performance and characteristics.
Value of Reliability of Travellers on the Paris Suburban Railway Network: Technical Report on the Data Analysis — 2006
The development of a robust method to appraise the monetary benefits of different possible ways to improve regularity of the Paris suburban train network required values for its level of reliability. These values-of-reliability were obtained from a large-scale Stated Preference (SP) data set that was collected specifically for this project. This technical report presents the estimation results of models developed using this data set.
Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Passenger Vehicles: Predictive Mapping with an Application to Hamilton, Canada — 2005
Integrated urban models are designed to simulate land-use and transportation interactions and to allow predicts of traffic volume and vehicle emissions at the link level of the urban transport network.
London Patient Choice Project Evaluation: A model of patients’ choices of hospital from stated and revealed preference choice data — 2005
The London Patient Choice Project (LPCP) was established to offer choices to patients who were clinically eligible for treatment and had been waiting for treatment at an NHS London hospital beyond a target waiting time. This report covers the choice process and the trade-offs patients are willing to make in order to obtain earlier treatment.
Taking into account improvements of the reliability of travel times in cost-benefit analyses (CBA) of infrastructure investments is likely to become standard practice in the Netherlands. In order to make this possible, it is necessary to have a well-...
Although thousand of papers on transport model forecasts can be found in journals, conference proceedings and reports, the literature on quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts is fairly limited. In this report the authors present an overview of...
The logsum is a measure of consumer surplus in the context of logit choice models. In spite of the abundant use of logit models in transport, project assessment is only rarely done using logsums. Instead in project evaluation or appraisal, changes in...
Car ownership models found in the academic literature (with a focus on the recent literature and on models developed for transport planning) are classified into a number of model types.
Analyse conjointe SP/RP du choix du mode de transport de marchandises dans la Region Nord - Pas-de-Calais [A Simultaneous SP/RP Analysis of Mode Choice in Freight Transport in the Region Nord - Pas-de-Calais] — 2003
The report aims to gain insight into the factors that influence the mode choice of shippers in freight transport. It begins with a survey in which more than 200 shippers in the French region Nord-Pas-de-Calais had been interviewed about their shipments. Almost 100 of these shippers were re-interviewed using a computerised stated preference questionnaire, which contained hypothetical choice situations for shipments that had actually been made and reported in the first interview. The project also contains the analysis of the stated preference data, using discrete choice models for individual choice behaviour. (This report is written in French with an English language Summary.)
This report describes a transport model with the following characteristics: the model is fast and easy to use, it distinguishes between many different population segments, and it focuses on representing transport over everyday distances. In the EXPEDITE project, carried out for the European Commission, such a model was developed and applied in forecasting and policy simulation for passenger and freight transport.
A new error components logit model for the joint choice of time of day and mode is presented, estimated on stated preference data for car and train travellers in The Netherlands.
Describes and compares the structure of six major transport demand modeling systems, and the principles on which they are based.
The purpose of this document is to raise awareness concerning the current status of maritime security and its vulnerability to terrorism. The main obstacles in achieving a less vulnerable maritime system are identified. Beginning with issues regarding threats to maritime and - more specifically - to container commerce, the report discusses the issues and possible solutions that these issues raise. The report concludes with a number of recommendations and references.
This report presents a review of existing models for car ownership. The review contains a description and comparison of existing Dutch car ownership models and a review and comparison of recently developed models in the international literature and models used in practice. The report also includes recommendations on directions for potential development for improving the AVV car ownership models.
The authors discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation.
Onderzoek Studentenkaart 2001: Rapportage op hoofdlijnen [Research on the Public Transport Pass for Students 2001: Main Report] — 2002
This study measures the use of train and bus/tram/metro by students in the Netherlands who own a Public Transport Pass. A total of 9,279 students (with either a pass for the weekend or the working week) were interviewed. The study asks questions about the quality of public transport and attributes of the students, and special attention is paid to travel between home and school by public transport. The interview data is processed, expanded and analysed. This volume explains the main outcomes of the study. Note: This report is composed in Dutch with an English language summary.
Onderzoek Studentenkaart 2001: Verantwoording onderzoek en tabellenboek [Research on the Public Transport Pass for Students 2001, Technical Report and Detailed Tables] — 2002
This study measures the use of train and bus/tram/metro by students in the Netherlands who own a Public Transport Pass. A total of 9,279 students (with either a pass for the weekend or the working week) were interviewed. The study asks questions about the quality of public transport and attributes of the students, and special attention is paid to travel between home and school by public transport. The interview data is processed, expanded and analyzed. This volume describes the methodology and the results in detail. Note: This report is composed in Dutch with an English language summary.
This study for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has estimated two sets of models of the choice of time of travel, based exclusively on stated preference (SP) data. The objective of estimating these two sets of models was to obtain the maximum understanding of the circumstances influencing the choice of time-of-day of travel through the detailed models, then to obtain (for the simplified models) formulae which were more closely suited to implementation in the national model system for transport and traffic, LMS.
The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region.
This report describes the outcomes of an idea study on a new national freight transport model system for Sweden. The objective of the study is to provide state-of-the-art ideas that are consistent and innovative on a conceptual framework for policy orientated analyses and modelling of freight transport in a Swedish context. The new Swedish freight transport model system, that should succeed the present SAMGODS model, should cover all modes (road, rail, air, maritime) and geographic levels (international, national, regional). Furthermore, it should be able to provide medium and long run forecasts (certainly including 10-25 years ahead), and be capable of being used to assess transport policy measures and to evaluate infrastructure projects.
The paper by Koppelman and Wen (1998) on nested logit structures (subsequently referred to as K&W), draws attention to alternative formulations of nested or 'tree' logit models.
Bestuurlijke en maatschappelijke haalbaarheid van een causaal model van het externe risico van de luchtvaart: Managerial and Social Feasibility of a Causal Model for External Safety of Aviation — 2000
The Dutch National Aviation Administration asked RAND Europe to consider the managerial and societal feasibility of a new model to calculate the external risk from aviation accidents around airports.