Publications: Choice Modelling and Valuation
This report documents the re-estimation of the mode-destination models in the PRISM model for the West Midlands region of the UK. The models for some purposes represent access mode and station choice, and time of day choice for car drivers.
This report documents the re-estimation of the frequency and car ownership models in the PRISM strategic transport model for the West Midlands region of the UK.
This report documents the implementation of the demand models in the PRISM strategic transport model for the West Midlands region of the UK.
This report describes work to further enhance the performance of the commute model component of the Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM). These enhancements build upon a major update to the STM that was made during 2009 and 2010.
This report describes the development of discrete choice models to support analysis of the induced traffic effects resulting from the completion of the M60 Manchester Motorway Box in the UK.
Increasing digitalization and the evolution of the Internet have had, and are still having, an impact on the demand for postal services.
Trips longer than 50 mi account for less than one-fortieth of all trips but nearly one-third of all distance traveled within Great Britain. Because of the small proportion of all travel that they form, long-distance trips may not be adequately represented in national databases and models.
This report documents how the OTM model for the Greater Copenhagen area has been extended to model the choice of time of travel for car drivers. The work has been undertaken so that OTM can be used to assess congestion charging policies.
The paper addresses the issue of how small time savings are handled in the appraisal of transport proposals.
Allowing for Heterogeneous Decision Rules in Discrete Choice Models: An Approach and Four Case Studies — 2012
The study of respondent heterogeneity is one of the main areas of research in the field of choice modelling.
This report documents work to update the Application System of the Sydney Strategic Model (STM). The Application System implements models of frequency, mode and destination choice for each of the nine travel purposes in the STM.
This report presents analysis that compares the PLANET long-distance model and the Department for Transport's long-distance model (LDM) and helps to inform which components of both models might be used to develop an improved HS2 Ltd model.
This report describes work to enhance the pivoting component of the Sydney Strategic Model (STM). Pivoting combines base and future model forecasts with base matrix information to produce the best possible predictions of future transport patterns.
In the 1990s, the usual assumption for an appraisal of road schemes in the UK was that total volumes of traffic were not affected by the capacity provided by the schemes. This assumption was questioned by the influential SACTRA committee in 1994.
Measuring IPR infringements in the internal market: Development of a new approach to estimating the impact of infringements on sales — 2012
This report aims to contribute to quantifying the scope, scale and impact of IPR infringements, such as counterfeiting and unauthorised downloads. It offers a methodology, based on economic theory, for measuring trends of the lost revenues due to IPR infringements.
Stated choice surveys are used extensively in the study of choice behaviour across many different areas of research, notably in transport.
This report documents work to update the Population Synthesiser component of the Sydney Strategic Model (STM). The Population Synthesiser generates forecasts of the future Sydney population by spatial area and socio-economic segment.
Using Ordered Attitudinal Indicators in a Latent Variable Choice Model: A Study of the Impact of Security on Rail Travel Behaviour — 2011
In this article, we present an application of jointly estimated attitudinal and choice models to a real-world transport study, looking at the role of latent attitudes in a rail travel context. Our results show the impact that concern with privacy, liberty and security, and distrust of business, technology and authority have on the desire for rail travel in the face of increased security measures, as well as for universal security checks.
Best-worst Scaling Vs. Discrete Choice Experiments: An Empirical Comparison Using Social Care Data — 2011
This paper presents empirical findings from the comparison between two principal preference elicitation techniques: discrete choice experiments and profile-based best-worst scaling. Bes-worst scaling involves less cognitive burden for respondents and provides more information than traditional "pick-one" tasks asked in discrete choice experiments.
Modelling Demand for Long-Distance Travel in Great Britain: Stated preference surveys to support the modelling of demand for high-speed rail — 2011
This report provides new empirical evidence from a study into the factors influencing demand for high-speed rail in the UK. The forecasts developed from these models will inform the debate around the future of high-speed rail in the UK.
Study on Appropriate Methodologies to Better Measure Consumer Preferences for Postal Services: Final Report — 2012
This report summarises work undertaken using stated preference discrete choice experiments to measure consumer needs and preferences for postal services in three European countries.
The mean value of travel time savings obtained from a random parameters logit model estimated using the respondents who received the D-efficient design survey was closer to what is typically found in the literature.
Some travel demand models feature Cost Damping: the marginal impact of cost and/or time declines for longer trips. The report reviews the methods used and theoretical bases, making recommendations for appropriate methods for use in practice.
This study investigated the applicability of Multinomial logit (MNL) models to predict the proportion of crashes by collision type and to estimate crash counts by collision type.
This poster, based on a research project carried out by RAND Europe for the Local Better Regulation Office, presents the methodological approach chosen to explore the impacts and outcomes of Local Authority Regulatory Services in UK Local Authorities.