Publications: Choice Modelling and Valuation
Increasing digitalization and the evolution of the Internet have had, and are still having, an impact on the demand for postal services.
Allowing for Heterogeneous Decision Rules in Discrete Choice Models: An Approach and Four Case Studies — 2012
The study of respondent heterogeneity is one of the main areas of research in the field of choice modelling.
This report documents work to update the Application System of the Sydney Strategic Model (STM). The Application System implements models of frequency, mode and destination choice for each of the nine travel purposes in the STM.
This report presents analysis that compares the PLANET long-distance model and the Department for Transport's long-distance model (LDM) and helps to inform which components of both models might be used to develop an improved HS2 Ltd model.
This report describes work to enhance the pivoting component of the Sydney Strategic Model (STM). Pivoting combines base and future model forecasts with base matrix information to produce the best possible predictions of future transport patterns.
In the 1990s, the usual assumption for an appraisal of road schemes in the UK was that total volumes of traffic were not affected by the capacity provided by the schemes. This assumption was questioned by the influential SACTRA committee in 1994.
Measuring IPR infringements in the internal market: Development of a new approach to estimating the impact of infringements on sales — 2012
This report aims to contribute to quantifying the scope, scale and impact of IPR infringements, such as counterfeiting and unauthorised downloads. It offers a methodology, based on economic theory, for measuring trends of the lost revenues due to IPR infringements.
Stated choice surveys are used extensively in the study of choice behaviour across many different areas of research, notably in transport.
This report documents work to update the Population Synthesiser component of the Sydney Strategic Model (STM). The Population Synthesiser generates forecasts of the future Sydney population by spatial area and socio-economic segment.
Using Ordered Attitudinal Indicators in a Latent Variable Choice Model: A Study of the Impact of Security on Rail Travel Behaviour — 2011
In this article, we present an application of jointly estimated attitudinal and choice models to a real-world transport study, looking at the role of latent attitudes in a rail travel context. Our results show the impact that concern with privacy, liberty and security, and distrust of business, technology and authority have on the desire for rail travel in the face of increased security measures, as well as for universal security checks.
Best-worst Scaling Vs. Discrete Choice Experiments: An Empirical Comparison Using Social Care Data — 2011
This paper presents empirical findings from the comparison between two principal preference elicitation techniques: discrete choice experiments and profile-based best-worst scaling. Bes-worst scaling involves less cognitive burden for respondents and provides more information than traditional "pick-one" tasks asked in discrete choice experiments.
Modelling Demand for Long-Distance Travel in Great Britain: Stated preference surveys to support the modelling of demand for high-speed rail — 2011
This report provides new empirical evidence from a study into the factors influencing demand for high-speed rail in the UK. The forecasts developed from these models will inform the debate around the future of high-speed rail in the UK.
Study on Appropriate Methodologies to Better Measure Consumer Preferences for Postal Services: Final Report — 2012
This report summarises work undertaken using stated preference discrete choice experiments to measure consumer needs and preferences for postal services in three European countries.
The mean value of travel time savings obtained from a random parameters logit model estimated using the respondents who received the D-efficient design survey was closer to what is typically found in the literature.
Some travel demand models feature Cost Damping: the marginal impact of cost and/or time declines for longer trips. The report reviews the methods used and theoretical bases, making recommendations for appropriate methods for use in practice.
This study investigated the applicability of Multinomial logit (MNL) models to predict the proportion of crashes by collision type and to estimate crash counts by collision type.
This poster, based on a research project carried out by RAND Europe for the Local Better Regulation Office, presents the methodological approach chosen to explore the impacts and outcomes of Local Authority Regulatory Services in UK Local Authorities.
How do the public value different outcomes of social care? Estimation of preference weights for ASCOT — 2010
This RAND Europe report establishes preference weights for the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit measures of social care outcomes. Best-worst scaling exercises were used to elicit preferences and support the development of discrete choice models.
This study was aimed at understanding practical privacy, liberty and security trade-offs individuals make to better inform public policy about preferences in this domain and to inform the debate about the balance between security and civil liberties.
Group Behaviour Modelling — 2009
Even though research on group behavior is still a comparatively new field in transportation, rapid progress has been made since the beginning of the 21st century.
The increase in value of time (VOT) with trip length is more likely to be due to heteroskedasticity (in the data studied) and the underlying VOT is therefore not increasing with distance at an individual level.
This report documents the results obtained from the re-estimation of models apportioning travel to destination area types, distance band and travel mode for an important component of the UK National Travel Model (NTM).
This paper compares multinomial logit, ordered logit, and ordered probit car ownership models through a number of formal evaluation measures and empirical analysis of three data sets, with results.
This paper offers a critical overview of the full spectrum of household discrete choice-based automobile demand models.
Setting the Agenda for an Evidence-based Olympics is a RAND Europe initiative that reveals how our rigorous research and analysis can help policy and decision makers to address the immense challenges of London's Olympic Games.