RAND Europe Research on Population and Demography
Europe's population nearly quadrupled in the 20th century, spurring concern about overpopulation and the limits to growth. In the 21st century however, population numbers in Europe are expected to decline and by 2050 the EU is projected to shrink by half a million people per year. Demographic developments related to child birth, death, and migration underpin the dynamics of Europe's population. Europe is facing a number of challenges as a consequence of these demographic transitions: Europe could use labour migration to top up the shrinking workforce, but unbalanced migration may have disruptive potential for social cohesion, and a rapidly ageing population will lead to economic, welfare and healthcare burdens.
RAND Europe has built up a body of work that identifies the consequences for public policy and analyses the causes and impacts of demographic developments and migration.
RAND Europe has formed an extensive body of research examining issues at the interface of policy and demography. Whilst demography is often seen as destiny, we have analysed the various factors that can influence the development of a country or region's population size and structure. These factors range from education, to economic growth, to health interventions or social policies. We have conducted population projections under different future scenarios and assumptions. Our work has also looked at the policy consequences of demographic developments, such as formulating policy responses to the challenges of population ageing to welfare state reform.
Current Projects
The European Programme for Integration and Migration (EPIM) is a €3 million collaborative initiative of 12 major foundations to improve integration of and outcomes for migrants in Europe through advocacy, capacity-building and policy change. EPIM has asked RAND Europe to evaluate the achievements and impacts of their work in 2012-2015, to ensure accountability and enable learning that can be acted on during the course of the programme.
Intolerance based on ethnic, national, racial and religious grounds is an area of high public concern, but there is relatively little empirical research that provides an overview of how apparently rising hate crime and growing support for some populist parties relate to wider public attitudes. The Open Society Foundation has funded RAND Europe to assess existing evidence and map reported intolerance over time and across western European countries. The study will inform questions including which countries are experiencing the most significant changes in levels of intolerance and against which groups as well as considering implications for policy.
Completed Research
The EU is faced with two significant challenges: an ageing population that is on the rise, and increasing levels of unemployment in certain countries. RAND Europe examined age management policies and practices in nine EU Member States in relation to the retention of workers aged 50+, overall trends in the employment of these workers, the policy direction before the economic crisis of 2008, and developments after the crisis and their implications for the labour market.
Recent snapshots of fertility indicators across Europe look less depressing than they did a decade ago: The fertility rate for the European Union (EU) as a whole has stabilised, and it has increased in a number of member states. An article in the Fall 2011 issue of
RAND Review summarises the findings from RAND Europe's report,
Low Fertility in Europe: Is There Still Reason to Worry?"
The UK Migration Advisory Committee commissioned RAND Europe to collate evidence on how migration is likely to impact transport networks. Our analysis finds that migrants tend to live in metropolitan areas and make transport choices strongly in favour of public transport, walking, cycling, and car-sharing when they first arrive in the UK; over time, however, their behaviour becomes more similar to the native population. The report also provides monetised estimates of migrants’ transport impacts.
The implications of an ageing population and a shrinking workforce have caused concern about falling fertility rates in Europe. However, an update to RAND Europe’s 2004 study into the causes and consequences of low fertility in Europe suggests that the post-war decline in fertility rates reversed during the last decade. This report investigates to what extent fertility has in fact recovered in the EU and explores possible explanations as well as potential consequences.
In response to increasing labour demand as well as increasing migration throughout the European Union, a study of women migrants from outside the EU finds that they are more likely than their European counterparts to be unemployed, underemployed, or employed in jobs that are not commensurate with their educational levels. The study also looks at how to improve their labour force integration.
Results of RAND Europe research demonstrate that Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART), such as IVF, could help European governments combat the problem of ageing populations if incorporated into population policies. The research is the first step to systematically examine the potential impact of biomedical developments such as fertility treatment on population ageing. The results of this analysis will be of interest to those who are concerned with policy options to reverse low fertility and mitigate the effects of population ageing.
Across Europe, birth rates are falling and the population is aging. To successfully reverse these trends, EU governments need long-term policies that address demographic change and household behaviors. RAND Europe examined the interrelations among European government policies and demographic trends and behaviour, and assessed which policies can prevent or mitigate the adverse consequences of current low fertility and population ageing.
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