Completed Research: Choice Modelling and Valuation

  • Modelling Long-Distance Travel in Great Britain

    09 Jan 2014

    Trips longer than 50 mi account for less than one-fortieth of all trips but nearly one-third of all distance traveled within Great Britain. Because they account for a substantial proportion of total distance traveled, particularly on motorways and rail, these trips are important for transport policy and have a substantial impact on congestion. RAND Europe developed a model to ensure proper treatment of the specific properties of long-distance travel; such treatment is essential for appraising the impact of transport policy aimed at this market, such as high-speed rail, highway construction and management policies, and policies directed toward domestic air travel.

  • Extending Copenhagen's Traffic Model May Help Reduce Congestion

    20 Nov 2013

    Copenhagen sees a lot of traffic, and congestion charging policies are currently high on the political agenda. The Danish Road Directorate asked RAND Europe, TetraPlan and Significance to extend the city's existing traffic model to predict time-of-day choice for car drivers. Doing so will allow planners to assess the effectiveness of different charging policies aimed at reducing congestion levels at particular times of day.

  • Modelling Transport Demand in Sydney, Australia

    24 Jul 2013

    Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW) operates the Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM) to inform long term transport planning, policy development, and infrastructure assessment in Greater Sydney, Australia. RAND Europe has implemented new travel frequency, mode, and destination model components of the STM, and has recently further improved the commute mode-destination model. Previous work extended the model scope to include toll road choice for car drivers, and park-and-ride and kiss-and-ride access to train, and analysed and enhanced the pivoting component of the STM that helps to predict future travel patterns.

  • Consumers' Responsiveness to Alcohol Multi-buy Sales Promotions

    22 Jul 2013

    Multi-buy promotions have a large impact on which alcohol products consumers purchase, according to stated-preference research by RAND Europe for Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs. The overall impact on all alcohol purchasing is somewhat smaller, though still substantial: Moderate drinkers are more likely to be swayed by these promotions, but because hazardous and harmful drinkers purchase much higher volumes of alcohol, the absolute impact on these groups is higher.

  • Developing Models to Predict Future High-Speed Rail Demand in Britain

    16 May 2013

    Within a consortium of consultancies, RAND Europe has contributed to the development of models to predict future passenger rail demand to assess the benefits of the proposed high-speed rail between London, Birmingham, Manchester and further afield. Our contribution in this work consisted of improving the quality of the travel demand models by using the best available evidence to improve the estimation of key model parameters.

  • Measuring Consumer Preferences for Postal Services

    05 Apr 2013

    When it comes to European postal services, it is clear that different market segments have different needs. RAND Europe, in conjunction with Accent and Swiss Economics, undertook a study for the European Commission to help identify consumer needs in relation to postal services. Among the conclusions: big business valued letter services more than did small and medium enterprises or the public, whereas all consumers valued parcel services as well as high levels of reliability and low levels of loss. The research was conducted using stated preference experiments in three countries.

  • What Types of Interventions Change Energy Using Behaviours?

    12 Dec 2012

    The UK Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) was interested in understanding the effectiveness of interventions designed to change energy use behaviour in the home. They commissioned RAND Europe to assess the state of knowledge about “what works”, by systematically reviewing previous trials and initiatives, drawing on evidence from the UK and abroad. This review has informed DECC’s November 2012 Energy Efficiency Strategy, which sets out their policy direction for decades to come.

  • Examining High-Speed Rail Options in Norway

    10 Dec 2012

    RAND Europe completed the third phase of a study of high-speed rail options in Norway. Analysis done as part of the earlier phases provided initial insight in to the likely levels of demand, and the new phase provided a fuller analysis of the demand on different strategic routes to inform the decisions to be taken by the Norwegian government about high-speed rail options in the country.

  • Scenario Planning Can Help Set Agenda for Secure 2012 Olympics

    13 Mar 2012

    Hosting the 2012 Olympic Games this summer will place London and the UK at the centre of the world's attention — something that carries with it a wide range of potential security risks. Organizers must learn from the successes and problems of past games in the areas of transportation, infrastructure and security. RAND Europe offers policymakers a methodology that will help foster evidence-based decisions as they finalise security planning for the Games.

  • What Factors Affect the Wider Adoption of Electric Vehicles?

    22 Feb 2012

    To understand the factors affecting the wider adoption of electric vehicles, RAND Europe has sponsored a project to evaluate the barriers, as well as relevant government and public-private interventions that have been used in other countries to facilitate adoption. The project team will also conduct a survey to determine the potential uptake of electric vehicles within a municipality, using Cambridge, UK, as a case study.

  • Developing a Vision for Qatar's School Transportation System

    21 Feb 2012

    Considering the challenges associated with continued growth and demographic changes, the government of Qatar is interested in updating its school transportation system (STS). RAND Europe helped to assess the perspectives of parents and school administrators, identify a vision for the STS, and discuss strategies to achieve it. The four elements of the vision: providing safe, efficient, and high-quality transportation; enabling mobility and access; supporting Qatari values and culture; and minimizing the impact on traffic congestion and the environment.

  • How Will Migration Impact UK Transport and Congestion?

    10 Jan 2012

    The UK Migration Advisory Committee commissioned RAND Europe to collate evidence on how migration is likely to impact transport networks. Our analysis finds that migrants tend to live in metropolitan areas and make transport choices strongly in favour of public transport, walking, cycling, and car-sharing when they first arrive in the UK; over time, however, their behaviour becomes more similar to the native population. The report also provides monetised estimates of migrants’ transport impacts.

  • Examining the Market for Low-Emission Vehicles in London

    12 Oct 2011

    A major shift to low emission vehicles in the private fleet is likely to be essential to any aspirations for Transport for London (TfL) to deliver significant reductions to its carbon footprint and meet desired environmental outcomes. RAND Europe, working in partnership with MVA Consultancy, developed a model to enable TfL to examine the market for low emission vehicles in order to forecast the CO2 emissions produced by the private car fleet in London.

  • Do Attitudes Affect Choices, or Vice Versa?

    19 Aug 2011

    Growing interest in the use of models that recognise the role of individuals' attitudes and perceptions in choice behaviour has influenced a team of RAND Europe researchers to examine the latent nature of attitudes. In an article in Transportation they present an application of jointly estimated attitudinal and choice models to a real-world transport study, looking at the role of latent attitudes in a rail travel context. The result of their work is an ordered logit structure that explains how the choices people make may be strongly influenced by their attitudes, but that the choices also say something about those attitudes.

  • Modelling Demand for Long Distance Passenger Travel in Great Britain

    23 Jun 2011

    RAND Europe, in collaboration with URS/Scott Wilson, has developed models to predict demand for long-distance passenger travel in Great Britain to appraise the impact of new transport infrastructure and operation policies aimed at this market, such as high-speed rail, highway management, and policies directed towards domestic air travel. Stated preference surveys were conducted with rail, air and car travellers to enable better representation of high-speed rail in the models.

  • Does Patient Choice Influence Healthcare Services Quality?

    07 Mar 2011

    The policy of offering patients a choice in where they receive hospital treatment was intended to create competition among providers and to improve quality of care, but it has not succeeded. Patients say they value aspects of quality when choosing a hospital, but few actually consult published performance information and instead opt to be treated by their local provider. Moreover, the 'threat' of patient choice has led few hospitals to try to improve their reputation.

  • How Much Are People Willing to Pay to Reduce Carbon Emissions?

    28 Feb 2011

    To combat climate change, the British government has thus far valued the cost of carbon emissions based on how much people should pay, rather than how much they are willing to pay, or the value they place on carbon emissions reduction. An analysis of a series of RAND Europe studies suggests there is an opportunity for a large consumer surplus — a social benefit — by introducing a carbon tax to pay for the damages caused by carbon emissions.

  • How Do the Public Value Different Outcomes of Social Care?

    10 Jun 2010

    Social care is an increasing important public service, but little is known about its impact and how effective or efficient different care interventions are. To help remedy this situation, RAND Europe has undertaken research for the Office of National Statistics and the Personal Social Services Research Unit that quantifies the value placed on different aspects of social care related quality of life. This research forms part of the new Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit (ASCOT), which provides a tool for commissioners, service providers and regulators to quantify the outcomes of care interventions and help prioritise expenditure in areas which offer the greatest return to service users.

  • Reviewing Methods for Understanding Customer Responses to Market Changes

    29 Apr 2010

    Competition authorities and regulators often need to understand how customers will respond to price changes, whether they will switch providers if there are changes in the market, and the value that they put on alternatives and their attributes. The UK Competition Commission commissioned RAND Europe to review the methodological options available for carrying out stated preference studies to answer such questions and to advise on the design of and market research methods to conduct such studies.

  • Do New Roads Increase Traffic?

    15 Apr 2010

    It has long been known that new roads have a more complex impact on behaviour than drivers merely changing routes. Travellers may reschedule trips, make additional trips, switch from public transport to car, visit new destinations or even move home. To understand and measure the 'induced traffic' effects resulting from the completion of the Manchester Motorway Box, the Department for Transport commissioned RAND Europe to develop a robust predictive choice model whose results were broadly in line with measured changes.

  • Recommendations for the Use of Cost Damping in Travel Demand Models

    22 Mar 2010

    Cost damping is a feature in some travel demand models by which the marginal disutility of cost (and, possibly, of time) declines as journey lengths increase. As cost damping is present in many models in practical use in the UK, the Department for Transport sought recommendations for the advice it issues to local planners in its WebTAG system.

  • Security, At What Cost? Quantifying People's Trade-Offs Across Liberty, Privacy and Security

    11 Jan 2010

    To understand the privacy, liberty, and security trade-offs individuals are willing to make, and so policy makers can be better informed about citizens' true preferences in this domain, RAND Europe undertook an innovative stated-preference discrete-choice modelling study. The research included three real-life case studies where these factors come into play: applying for a passport, traveling on the national rail network, and attending a major public event such as the opening ceremony of the Olympics.

  • Quantifying Customers' Priorities for Electricity Distribution Services

    08 Sep 2008

    Britain's gas and electricity regulator, Ofgem, undertakes price reviews every five years to set a price control regime for regional operators. For the last review, Ofgem commissioned a national research programme to identify and quantify customers' priorities for electricity distribution improvements. RAND Europe's effort focused on the design and analysis of stated preference choice experiments to measure customers' willingness to pay or to be compensated for electricity service changes.

  • Setting the Agenda for an Evidence-Based Olympics

    28 Nov 2007

    Hosting the 2012 Olympic Games will place London and the UK at the centre of the world's attention - something that carries with it a wide range of potential security risks. RAND Europe offers policy makers a methodology that will help foster evidence-based decisions as they approach security planning for the Games.

  • Modelling Ferry Service Demand to the Isles of Scilly

    21 Nov 2007

    Local authorities requesting capital funding to improve transport infrastructure need to estimate the cost benefits that travellers will receive from these improvements. RAND Europe developed a travel demand model for Cornwall County, using locally collected data, to predict travellers’ responses and quantify their benefits from different ferry service options to the Isles of Scilly. The model predicts changes in modal shift and in total travel demand as a result of changes in ferry services.