RAND » RAND Europe » Research » Population and Migration

Population and Migration Research

Europe's population nearly quadrupled in the 20th century, spurring concern about overpopulation and the limits to growth. In the 21st century however, population numbers in Europe are expected to decline. Demographic developments related to child birth, death, and migration underpin the dynamics of Europe's population. Europe is facing a number of challenges as a consequence of these demographic transitions; unbalanced migration may have disruptive potential for social cohesion, and a rapidly ageing population will lead to economic, social and healthcare burdens. RAND Europe has built up a body of work that identifies the consequences for public policy and analyses the causes and impacts of demographic developments, with a focus on population and migration.

Population

If demography is destiny, then it appears that destiny for some countries in Europe and around the world is bleak. The demographic transition in many countries includes a rapidly ageing population, the disruptive potential of unbalanced migration, increasing economic, social and healthcare burdens and a weaker diplomatic and competitive position on the world stage.

Recent figures show that the European Union has 21 of the 25 lowest-fertility countries in the world. As a result, by 2050, one in three Europeans will be more than 65 years old, up from one in six in 2000. In Japan the number of 65 year olds now accounts for almost 21% of the population.

Concerns over these developments have caused policy makers to take note and begin serious consideration of policy implications and responses. Informed and responsible policy making could benefit from understanding the policy implications of demographic research.

RAND Europe has formed an extensive body of research examining the problem and providing solutions to inform the policy debate. RAND Europe's research and analysis in this area cover core facets including:

The causes and consequences of demographic developments
Policy responses to the challenges of population ageing to welfare state reform
The socio-economic impact of migration and conditions for sustainable migration and ethnic differentiation
The contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to increasing fertility rates
Comparative international research on population policies

Migration

Since its inception, RAND Europe has explored the links between migration, employment and their social and economic impacts in the home and host countries. As globalisation spreads, it is becoming increasingly crucial to consider these issues.

Recently, RAND Europe has also started looking into the implications that climate change carries for migration movements across the world. In fact, this area has been identified as one of the main concerns in relation to climate change, and a likely significant issue for policymakers in the future.

In the Media

Hoorens Interviewed about French Fertility Levels — 18 Jan 2012

French women boast the European Union's second-highest fertility rate. France24 interviewed Stijn Hoorens about European demographic trends and the stabilisation of French fertility rates.

View the Video (france24.com)

Current ProjectsMore »

Does Transferring Cash to Women Improve Household Well-Being?

Many cash transfer programmes designate women and mothers as transfer recipients, on the assumption that doing so will lead to better outcomes. RAND Europe is undertaking a systematic review for the UK Department for International Development to assess whether transferring cash to women rather than men in low- and middle-income countries has a greater impact on household well-being.

Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Migration

This study aims to develop a better understanding of the potential impact of climate change on migration and displacement. It addresses the extent to which climate-induced migration shares the characteristics of other forms of migration and examines how communities have responded to environmental pressures caused by extreme drought.

Completed ResearchMore »

Modelling Transport Demand in Sydney, Australia — 13 Mar 2012

Transport for New South Wales (NSW) operates the Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM) to inform long term transport planning, policy development, and infrastructure assessment in Greater Sydney, Australia. The STM was developed in 1999-2002 and updated and expanded in 2009-10. At the request of the NSW Bureau of Transport Statistics, RAND Europe implemented the new travel frequency, mode, and destination model components of the STM and extended the model scope to include toll road choice for car drivers, and park-and-ride and kiss-and-ride access to train.

Radicalisation of Extremist Prisoners Remains Public Safety Concern — 20 Feb 2012

In 2010, RAND Europe provided a preliminary overview of the challenges posed by radicalised prisoners, and to explore the potential for radicalisation of young European Muslims in the prison environment. The research, which remains relevant today, draws on the body of existing prison theory literature, historical case examples and contemporary sources. It focuses on the potential in prison for extremist activity, including radicalisation, and highlights a number of areas where further research and action may be desirable.

How Will Migration Impact UK Transport and Congestion? — 10 Jan 2012

The UK Migration Advisory Committee commissioned RAND Europe to collate evidence on how migration is likely to impact transport networks. Our analysis finds that migrants tend to live in metropolitan areas and make transport choices strongly in favour of public transport, walking, cycling, and car-sharing when they first arrive in the UK; over time, however, their behaviour becomes more similar to the native population. The report also provides monetised estimates of migrants’ transport impacts.

My RAND ?

Saved Items

View All »