National Security
Congressional Newsletter
This monthly bulletin summarizes national security documents published by the RAND Corporation in the last month. Click on any link to view the full text of the study.
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June 2006
Contents:
A. NEW RELEASES
1. Reports
WHY HAS THE COST OF NAVY SHIPS RISEN? A MACROSCOPIC EXAMINATION OF THE TRENDS IN U.S. NAVAL SHIP COSTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DECADES
Authors: Mark Arena, Irving Blickstein, Obaid Younossi, and Clifford Grammichh
Over the past several decades, the increases in acquisition costs for U.S. Navy amphibious ships, surface combatants, attack submarines, and nuclear aircraft carriers have outpaced the rate of inflation. To understand why, the authors of this study examined two principal source categories of ship cost escalation: economy-driven factors (which are outside the control of the Navy) and customer-driven factors (factors for which the Navy has the most control). The authors also interviewed various shipbuilders to find out their views on other issues contributing to increasing costs. Based on their analysis, the authors propose some ways the Navy might reduce ship costs in the future, including limiting growth in features and requirements and reconsidering the mission orientation of ships. They note, however, that such reductions come at a cost, since the nation and the Navy understandably desire technology and capability that is continuously ahead of their competitors.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG484/
CIVILIAN WORKFORCE PLANNING IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE: DIFFERENT LEVELS, DIFFERENT ROLES
Authors: Susan Gates, Christine Eibner, and Edward Keating
The Department of Defense (DoD), along with other federal agencies, is striving to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its civilian workforce and to address impending personnel challenges, such as a significant increase in retirement rates. The Department is evaluating the extent to which a data-driven and Department-wide approach to civilian workforce planning, drawing on lessons learned from workforce planning, can help in achieving these goals. The DoD asked the RAND Corporation to explore how workforce planning and requirements determination are accomplished at specific installations, to identify potential roles for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) in the planning process, and to identify potential data sources for Department-wide workforce planning.
The research was based on a review of the literature on workforce planning and requirements determination, an analysis of existing data sources, and interviews with individuals involved in workforce-planning activities at the service, agency, and local levels. Workforce planning typically involves four basic steps: forecasting workforce demand, characterizing the projected workforce supply, conducting a gap analysis by comparing supply and demand, and, finally, identifying strategies to address those gaps. Our research shows that while Defense Civilian Personnel Data System (DCPDS) data provide rich information for characterizing workforce supply both DoD-wide and at various organizational levels, no DoD-wide sources of data are available for forecasting workforce demand. Demand analysis involves two important types of data: projections of customer demand and data that allow that demand to be translated into workforce requirements. The most significant barrier to demand analyses for the civilian workforce appears to be a lack of customer-demand projections. Recognizing that additional data collection is costly, the study recommends that DoD carefully consider the specific occupations and/or geographic regions that might benefit from a Department-wide (rather than a local) workforce-planning perspective, and focus additional data-gathering and coordination efforts in these areas.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG449/
A SURVEY OF AIRCRAFT STRUCTURAL-LIFE MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS IN THE U.S. NAVY, THE CANADIAN FORCES, AND THE U.S. AIR FORCE
Authors: Yool Kim, Stephen Sheehy, and Darryl Lenhardt
The U.S. Air Force owns and operates some 6,000 aircraft, with an average age of 22 years. Many of the older aircraft are facing aging issues. Since 1958, the Air Force has relied on its Aircraft Structural Integrity Program to maintain the safety of its aircraft throughout their service lives. In recent years, concerns have arisen about the aging force, budget pressures, diminishing program regulation, and communication challenges. The authors of this study address these concerns by comparing the Air Force program with programs in the U.S. Navy and Canadian Forces, seeking insights that might help the Air Force enhance its own program's effectiveness. Some of these insights include the value of clarifying the program's policies and extending and formalizing existing processes, providing independent compliance assessment, facilitating communications and close working relationships, and standardizing metrics and communications to improve the command's understanding of the conditions of all its aircraft.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB187/index1.html
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG370/
2. Reprints
EVALUATING THE VIABILITY OF 100 PER CENT CONTAINER INSPECTION AT AMERICA'S PORTS
Authors: Susan Martonosi, David Ortiz, and Henry Willis
As U.S. maritime security adapts to the terrorist threat, the authors argue that quantitative analysis should be used to evaluate security initiatives and present a case study of one proposed measure: 100 percent scanning of containers entering the United States. By assessing the minimum attack likelihood required to justify increased inspection costs, the authors conclude that 100 percent scanning is cost-effective only if the attack damages or likelihood of an attack are quite high. Even so, additional land and labor transaction costs could render adoption infeasible unless scanning technologies improve significantly.
Read the Reprint: http://www.rand.org/cnsrd/0606/pubs/reprints/RP1220/
GREECE'S BALKAN POLICY IN A NEW STRATEGIC ERA
Author: F. Stephen Larrabee
Historically, Greece's security has been closely tied to Balkan security. Given its location on the periphery of the Balkans, any instability or unrest in the region has direct and important consequences for Greece's own security. As a result, Greece has been highly sensitive to developments in the Balkans and has been a leading proponent of Balkan cooperation and détente.
The disintegration of Yugoslavia led to a sharp deterioration of Greece's relations with its Balkan neighbors and its western allies. However, since the mid-1990s, Greece has undertaken a major diplomatic effort to improve relations with its Balkan neighbors. This effort has proven remarkably successful. Today, Greece's relations with the Balkan states are the best they have been in the post-war period.
However, it would be premature to consider the Balkans “fixed.” Indeed, the region may be entering a new phase of growing instability that could thrust it back onto the western policy agenda. Thus, Greece could face new challenges in the Balkans in the years ahead.
Read the Reprint: http://www.rand.org/cnsrd/0606/pubs/reprints/RP1198/
3. Testimony
THE USE OF THE INTERNET BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS
Author: Bruce Hoffman
Testimony presented to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, on May 4, 2006.
Read the Testimony: http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT262-1/
4. Commentary
The following is a list of national security related commentary pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve past commentary pieces, please visit RAND's Commentary page: http://www.rand.org/commentary/
POLICE PERSONNEL CRISIS NEEDS FEDERAL LEADERSHIP
Author: Jeremy Wilson (Washingtonpost.com)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/052306WP.html
AVERTING WAR WITH IRAN
Authors: F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter Wilson (United Press International)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/050206UPI.html
AMERICA NEEDS TO PICK ITS FIGHTS CAREFULLY
Author: Ambassador James Dobbins (International Herald Tribune)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/050206IHT.html
STABILITY IN IRAQ WON'T COME WITHOUT DISBANDING MILITIAS
Author: David Gompert (Christian Science Monitor)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/050206CSM.html
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