Arms Proliferation and Control

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The U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race ended in détente, but nuclear development efforts and WMD proliferation in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran have caused geopolitical instability since the Cold War's end. RAND has applied strategic analysis to nuclear confrontation scenarios and international deterrence efforts since its earliest work on game theory, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global as well as regional security.

  • World foreign ministers/secretaries of state in Vienna, Austria, July 14, 2015, when Iran and six major world powers reached a nuclear deal, photo by Bundesministerium fur Europa, Integration und Ausseres/CC BY 2.0

    Q&A

    RAND Experts Q&A on the Iran Nuclear Deal, One Year Later

    Jul 12, 2016

    Looking back on the past year, five RAND experts respond to a series of critical questions about the Iran nuclear deal, its implementation, and potential challenges ahead.

  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gives a New Year address in Pyongyang on January 1, 2017, photo by KCNA/Reuters

    Commentary

    Trump Should Confront Kim Over ICBM Tests

    Jan 6, 2017

    Whether successful or not, an ICBM test by North Korea would be very much against U.S. interests and President-elect Trump should act to counter it as early as possible. A turn to the basics of deterrence would be the path most likely to succeed.

Explore Arms Proliferation and Control

  • Military vehicles carrying DF-26 ballistic missiles travel past Tiananmen Gate during a military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Beijing, September 3, 2015

    Report

    China's Evolving Approach to Nuclear Deterrence

    China's nuclear posture has been consistent since 1964. But in recent years, China has increased the numbers of its missiles and warheads and improved the quality of its force. Understanding its future nuclear direction is critical to shaping U.S. strategy.

    Mar 15, 2017

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath laying ceremony to mark the Defender of the Fatherland Day at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier Moscow, Russia February 23, 2017

    Commentary

    How to Partner With Putin

    Improving relations with Russia is a worthy goal. President Donald Trump could seek to partner with Moscow on some issues, like North Korea, while keeping up heat on others, such as aggression in Ukraine.

    Mar 4, 2017

  • A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage after the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria, July 14, 2015

    Commentary

    Sticking with the Complicated U.S.-Iran Relationship

    The United States and Iran differ on many issues, but they signed what has so far been a successful nuclear agreement and both seek to defeat the Islamic State. The U.S. would have more to gain by sticking with the relationship than by pursuing a policy of “regime change.”

    Mar 2, 2017

  • U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force special forces personnel participate in a training exercise at Naval Station Pascagoula, Mississippi, October 26, 2016

    Commentary

    The Mission to Counter WMD: Avoiding Missteps While Transitioning Responsibility

    U.S. Special Operations Command will soon lead the Pentagon's anti-WMD efforts. SOCOM is well positioned to contain and reduce threats, but will need new expertise to prevent the acquisition of related material and respond to crises.

    Feb 10, 2017

  • Two U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 35th Fighter Squadron land in sync after a training sortie Feb. 13, 2014, at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea.

    Commentary

    A Political Earthquake in Seoul and Its Repercussions for U.S. Policy

    With new administrations in the U.S. and South Korea, it's time to find a middle ground and set up a new common policy toward North Korea. The pressures felt by both countries make the relationship all the more vital to the historical allies.

    Jan 25, 2017

  • The Pentagon, headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, taken from an airplane in January 2008

    Commentary

    Approaching Future Offsets

    Grand strategy, acquisitions, and technological considerations may shape the debate about the future of the U.S. military for some time to come. Only where all three elements align are future offsets likely to succeed.

    Dec 21, 2016

  • Small arms and rocket-propelled grenades found by Marines from Bravo Company, 1st Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment in a house in Fallujah

    Project

    Working Towards a Globalised Arms Trade Treaty

    To improve the understanding of the concerns and challenges experienced by Member States not part of the Arms Trade Treaty, RAND Europe is conducting a research project sponsored by the United Nations Trust Facility Supporting Cooperation on Arms Regulation (UNSCAR) focusing on South and South-East Asia.

    Oct 28, 2016

  • Journal Article

    Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened

    After the Cold War and nearly 70 years of waging war against communism, the United States and its key allies have adopted the war against terror as their new organizing principal.

    Oct 28, 2016

  • Report

    Towards a Universal Arms Trade Treaty: Understanding barriers and challenges in South-East Asia

    This report aims to support universalisation of the Arms Trade Treaty by identifying barriers and obstacles to its ratification and by generating a set of proposals to overcome these barriers at the national, regional or international level.

    Oct 26, 2016

  • U.S. President Barack Obama chairs the closing session of the Nuclear Security Summit, focusing on the Counter-ISIL campaign, in Washington, April 1, 2016

    Commentary

    Protect Nuclear Nonproliferation Norms

    Strong and viable global nuclear nonproliferation norms should remain a cornerstone of U.S. security now and into the future. Friends and allies must continue to have confidence in the U.S. strategic nuclear guarantees.

    Oct 9, 2016

  • Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks at a news conference near the United Nations General Assembly in New York City, September 22, 2016

    Commentary

    Whoever Wins the Presidency, the Next Big International Crisis Will Come from Iran

    The next U.S. president is likely to meet many international crises after taking office, and Iran may be one of the most challenging. The continuing climate of repression, the next Iranian presidential election, and Khamenei's eventual demise may provide some important opportunities for him or her.

    Sep 29, 2016

  • Person checking radiation with a geiger counter

    Commentary

    Finding a Nuclear Weapon: Hope Beyond the Screwdriver

    Science and technology is only partly at the point of reliably detecting a nuclear weapon in cities — for some weapons and some adversaries. The solutions for this problem are only partial and are complicated by the nuances of the science.

    Sep 21, 2016

  • Laptop and cursor with a gun icon pattern

    Project

    International Arms Trade on the Hidden Web

    RAND Europe was commissioned by the Economic and Social Research Council to explore the European illegal arms trade, with focus on the role played by the hidden web in fuelling and/or facilitating such trade.

    Sep 15, 2016

  • Bullets and firearm on a retail store counter

    Commentary

    Tracing Firearms and Ammunition

    The marking of firearms and ammunition supports effective tracing by enabling identification and efficient record keeping. But currently there are no mandatory, globally accepted standards that regulate firearms marking.

    Sep 9, 2016

  • Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a forum hosted by the Center for American Progress in Washington, DC, November 10, 2015

    Report

    Israel's Iran Policies After the Nuclear Deal

    Israel was one of the most vocal opponents of the Iran nuclear talks. But once the nuclear deal became a reality, Israel's attention turned to nonnuclear challenges, particularly Iran's growing role in Syria.

    Aug 29, 2016

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif addresses the 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at United Nations headquarters in New York, April 27, 2015

    Commentary

    The End of Nuclear Proliferation?

    As the last case of nuclear proliferation fades further into history, it may become politically difficult to allocate resources to preventing it as other pressing threats, such as bio- and cyber-terrorism, continue to emerge. The time to act to keep nuclear proliferation a thing of the past is now.

    Jul 26, 2016

  • The 9T250-1 transporter and loader vehicle for a Russian Iskander-M system

    Report

    Weighing the Potential Value of Theater Ballistic Missiles in the Pacific

    The U.S. Department of State concluded in 2014 that Russia is in violation of its obligations under the INF Treaty. If the treaty cannot be revived, the U.S. Army should assess the value of adding conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles to its portfolio of strike capabilities.

    Jun 28, 2016

  • U.S. President Barack Obama attends a press conference with Vietnam's President Tran Dai Quang at the Presidential Palace Compound in Hanoi, Vietnam, May 23, 2016

    Commentary

    Why Has Obama Lifted the Arms Sales Ban on Vietnam?

    The lifting of the Vietnam arms embargo needs to be understood as part of the long process of normalizing relations with a former U.S. enemy and building toward a more cooperative, economically dynamic, and strategic future-oriented relationship.

    May 25, 2016

  • RAND's Alireza Nader (right) discusses the future of Iran with Dan Simpson of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette at RAND's Pittsburgh office, March 30, 2016

    Blog

    Impact of Iran Nuclear Deal Discussed at RAND Event

    The Iran nuclear deal has been the subject of strong criticism from U.S. presidential candidates, including promises to scrap the agreement in favor of taking a much tougher stance with Iran. But should a president “tear up” the deal on his or her first day in office? What would be the outcome for the United States?

    Apr 1, 2016