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Assumption Based Planning

RAND developed the methodology of assumption-based planning (ABP) primarily to assist U.S. Army clients with mid- and long-term defense planning. But ABP can also be a valuable tool for other military branches and even non-military agencies that want to assess their organizational assumptions and improve strategic planning and leadership.

Report

China and U.S. Can Reduce the Risk of War by Learning from History's Blunders

The history of wars caused by misjudgments reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models, or simplified representations of their worlds, that were seriously at odds with objective reality. China and the U.S. could learn from historical strategic blunders regarding war and peace, and four examples of decisions that turned out well.

Dec 2, 2014
News Release

News Release

China and U.S. Can Reduce the Risk of War by Learning from History's Blunders

The history of wars caused by misjudgments reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models, or simplified representations of their worlds, that were seriously at odds with objective reality. China and the U.S. could learn from historical strategic blunders regarding war and peace, and four examples of decisions that turned out well.

Dec 2, 2014
Report

Report

Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity

Defense analysis can better serve policymakers by exploiting improvements in the state of the art and by rediscovering and supplementing classic principles. These relate to multiple objectives and hedging against uncertainty.

Mar 20, 2014
Report

Applying Lessons from National Security Planning Under Uncertainty

A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. Lessons from RAND's national security work on planning under uncertainty can be applied in many other fields.

Jul 31, 2012
Report

Making Strategic Analysis Matter

A presentation of the topics and findings discussed at a workshop convened to examine how consumers of intelligence might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than most of today's intelligence products.

Mar 9, 2012
Report

How Americans Will Live and Work in 2020: A Workshop Exploring Key Trends and Philanthropic Responses

These proceedings summarize the discussion at a July 2011 workshop convened to examine how trends in four areas -- the economy, demographics, the workplace, and lifestyles -- will affect the poor and vulnerable in America in the coming decade.

Jan 16, 2012
Report

Report

Comparing Alternative U.S. Counterterrorism Strategies

The U.S. faces the challenge of countering the terrorism threat. Frequently, both expert decisionmakers and lay citizens have trouble assessing alternative strategies to address such issues because of the emotions and uncertainty involved. An assumption-based planning approach might help.

Apr 6, 2008
Commercial Book

Commercial Book

Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises

This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions that, through familiarity or other reasons, have become buried in one's thinking.

Jan 1, 2002
Report

Report

Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the Base Force, Bottom-Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review

This report describes the challenges policymakers have faced as seen through the lens of the three major force structure reviews that have taken place over the past decade.

Jan 1, 2001
Report

Report

Assumption-Based Planning and Force XXI

The current codification of Force XXI is in TRADOC PAM 525-5 dated 10 December 1993. RAND was asked to apply its Assumption-Based Planning (ABP) methodology to that version to assess its robustness into the future.

Jan 1, 1997
Report

Report

Assumption-Based Planning: A Planning Tool for Very Uncertain Times

This report documents a strategic planning methodology, Assumption-Based Planning, that RAND has developed over the last four years.

Jan 1, 1993
Journal Article

Journal Article

Elasticities of Substitution and Constant-Output Demand Curves for Labor

This paper presents a method for estimating the elasticity of demand for labor with output held constant.

Jan 1, 1961
Content

Content

Daniel P. Felten

Adjunct Policy Analyst
Education B.A. in history, University of Maryland

RAND Topic:
Assumption Based Planning

Topic Synonyms:
ABP

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