Assumption Based Planning

Contents:

RAND developed the methodology of assumption-based planning (ABP) primarily to assist U.S. Army clients with mid- and long-term defense planning. But ABP can also be a valuable tool for other military branches and even non-military agencies that want to assess their organizational assumptions and improve strategic planning and leadership.

Research conducted by: RAND Arroyo Center; RAND National Security Research Division; RAND Project AIR FORCE

All Items (10)

REPORT

Making Strategic Analysis Matter — Mar 9, 2012

These proceedings present the topics and findings discussed at a July 2010 workshop convened to examine how consumers of intelligence might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than the current reporting that dominates today's intelligence production. An appendix presents relevant lessons from the private sector.

REPORT

How Americans Will Live and Work in 2020: A Workshop Exploring Key Trends and Philanthropic Responses — Jan 16, 2012

These proceedings summarize the topics and findings discussed at a July 2011 workshop convened to examine how trends in four areas — the economy, demographics, the workplace, and lifestyles — will affect the poor and vulnerable in America in the coming decade. The authors also present the results of the workshop's assumption-based planning exercise.

REPORT

Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises — Dec 31, 2001

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had "forgotten" it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying a...

REPORT

Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the Base Force, Bottom-Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review — Jan 1, 2001

This report describes the challenges policymakers have faced as seen through the lens of the three major force structure reviews that have taken place over the past decade.

REPORT

Assumption-Based Planning and Force XXI — Dec 31, 1996

The current codification of Force XXI is in TRADOC PAM 525-5 dated 10 December 1993. RAND was asked to apply its Assumption-Based Planning (ABP) methodology to that version to assess its robustness into the future.

REPORT

Assumption-Based Planning: A Planning Tool for Very Uncertain Times — Jan 1, 1993

This report documents a strategic planning methodology, Assumption-Based Planning, that RAND has developed over the last four years. It distills long-range planning work for the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Research Activity and the Manpower, Training, and Performance Program (now the Manpower and Training Program) of RAND's Arroyo Center and was funded as Arroyo Center exploratory research.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Elasticities of Substitution and Constant-Output Demand Curves for Labor — Dec 31, 1960

This paper presents a method for estimating the elasticity of demand for labor with output held constant.

PEOPLE

James A. Dewar

Frederick S. Pardee Professor of Long-Term Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. and M.S. in mathematics, University of Southern California; B.S. in mathematics, Harvey Mudd College

PEOPLE

Steven W. Popper

Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. in economics, University of California, Berkeley; B.S. in biochemistry, University of Minnesota

PEOPLE

Anny Wong

Political Scientist
Ph.D. in political science, University of Hawai'i at Manoa; M.Phil. in government and public administration, Chinese University of Hong Kong

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  • ABP

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James A. Dewar

Frederick S. Pardee Professor of Long-Term Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School

James A. Dewar

James A. Dewar is the Frederick S. Pardee Professor of Long-Term Policy Analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. For the past 25 years, Dewar's main research interests have been strategic planning, planning methodologies, and policymaking under uncertainty. He has done strategic planning for…

Anny Wong

Political Scientist

Anny Wong

Anny Wong is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Wong grew up in the Philippines and has worked, studied, and traveled throughout East and Southeast Asia. Her research into pathways for social and economic development has a strong emphasis on the role of science and technology…

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