Assumption Based Planning

Contents:

RAND developed the methodology of assumption-based planning (ABP) primarily to assist U.S. Army clients with mid- and long-term defense planning. But ABP can also be a valuable tool for other military branches and even non-military agencies that want to assess their organizational assumptions and improve strategic planning and leadership.

Research conducted by: RAND Arroyo Center; RAND National Security Research Division; RAND Project AIR FORCE

All Items (10)

Report

Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security — Jul 31, 2012

This review of two decades of RAND work on uncertainty analysis for national security applications shows the wide range of uncertainties that arise, the variety of analytic techniques needed, and progress made in dealing with deep uncertainty.

Report

Making Strategic Analysis Matter — Mar 9, 2012

These proceedings present the topics and findings discussed at a workshop convened to examine how consumers of intelligence might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than most of today's intelligence products.

Report

How Americans Will Live and Work in 2020: A Workshop Exploring Key Trends and Philanthropic Responses — Jan 16, 2012

These proceedings summarize the discussion at a July 2011 workshop convened to examine how trends in four areas -- the economy, demographics, the workplace, and lifestyles -- will affect the poor and vulnerable in America in the coming decade.

Report

Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises — Jan 1, 2002

This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions that, through familiarity or other reasons, have become buried in one's thinking.

Report

Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the Base Force, Bottom-Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review — Jan 1, 2001

This report describes the challenges policymakers have faced as seen through the lens of the three major force structure reviews that have taken place over the past decade.

Report

Assumption-Based Planning and Force XXI — Jan 1, 1997

The current codification of Force XXI is in TRADOC PAM 525-5 dated 10 December 1993. RAND was asked to apply its Assumption-Based Planning (ABP) methodology to that version to assess its robustness into the future.

Report

Assumption-Based Planning: A Planning Tool for Very Uncertain Times — Jan 1, 1993

This report documents a strategic planning methodology, Assumption-Based Planning, that RAND has developed over the last four years.

Journal Article

Elasticities of Substitution and Constant-Output Demand Curves for Labor — Jan 1, 1961

This paper presents a method for estimating the elasticity of demand for labor with output held constant.

People

James A. Dewar

Frederick S. Pardee Professor of Long-Term Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. and M.S. in mathematics, University of Southern California; B.S. in mathematics, Harvey Mudd College

People

Steven W. Popper

Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. in economics, University of California, Berkeley; B.S. in biochemistry, University of Minnesota

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Steven W. Popper

Senior Economist

Steven W. Popper

Steven Popper is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. As associate director of the RAND Science and Technology Policy Institute (1996–2001), Popper provided research and analytic support to the White House Office of Science and…

James A. Dewar

Frederick S. Pardee Professor of Long-Term Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School

James A. Dewar

James A. Dewar is the Frederick S. Pardee Professor of Long-Term Policy Analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. For the past 25 years, Dewar's main research interests have been strategic planning, planning methodologies, and policymaking under uncertainty. He has done strategic planning for…

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