Defense analysis can better serve policymakers by exploiting improvements in the state of the art and by rediscovering and supplementing classic principles. These relate to multiple objectives and hedging against uncertainty.
Changing how we make development decisions requires a cultural shift as much as it requires an analytical shift. Methodological innovations like Robust Decision Making can help. By motivating and equipping analysts to manage uncertainty, they can shape how we think about, discuss, and make decisions.
Two key analytic tools can be used to evaluate how coastal protection and restoration decisions made now will play out over time, even given an uncertain future. For example, a community weighing whether to implement a marsh-building project can see how the project fares against different rates of rising sea levels over time.
This study provides an inventory of methods to support ethical decision-making in counterterrorism. It draws on expertise from the counterterrorism field as well as other public sectors, including healthcare, social work, policing and intelligence.
RAND examined the utility of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation for supporting decisionmaking in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare, with the focus on Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom.
RAND conducted an examination of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation support to decisionmaking in Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom to illustrate how these tools can support decisionmaking in irregular warfare.
This study uses behavioral experiments and structured decision-maker interviews to evaluate the results of scenario discovery, a quantitative method that defines scenarios as sets of future states of the world in which proposed policies fail to meet their goals.
Robust Decision Making is used in a wide range of applications, most critically in water and flood risk management. Here, RAND experts Robert Lempert and David Groves discuss two key projects where RAND applied RDM to look at potential futures: the Colorado River Basin, and Ho Chi Minh City.
The Colorado River Basin Study evaluated the river system's resiliency and compared resource management options. The Robust Decision Making methodology helped to identify vulnerabilities and compare portfolios of options.
Robust Decision Making showed El Dorado Irrigation District managers the results of key trade-offs among future strategies and how expectations for future vulnerable conditions can guide decisions to augment their long-term plan.
Managing homeland security risks involves balancing concerns about numerous types of accidents, disasters, and terrorist attacks. This research presents individuals' relative concerns about homeland security hazards and the attributes which influence those concerns.