RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.
Tool
When making complex decisions, researchers and policymakers often seek the input of many stakeholders and individuals with varied perspectives. ExpertLens is an online application developed by research and programming experts at the RAND Corporation to help achieve these goals easily and cost effectively.
Journal Article
We developed a conceptual framework and protocol that combines evidence review with expert opinion to elicit clinically meaningful objectives for CDS directly from specialists.
Report
An analysis of 30 insurgencies worldwide between 1978 and 2008 determined what factors were ultimately correlated with success or defeat. Comparing Afghanistan in early 2011 against this scorecard results in an uncertain outcome for the conflict there, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue.
News Release
Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.
Journal Article
ExpertLens, a RAND-developed system for eliciting opinions from a large group of people, saves on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy.
Report
An application of RAND's PortMan portfolio analysis and Delphi methods for the National Security Agency (NSA) that enables allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.
Journal Article
This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.
Journal Article
Awareness of the need for innovative approaches to obtaining feedback in community-based participatory research (CBPR) is increasing.
Journal Article
Describes an innovative method for choosing performance measures for early psychosis treatment services.
Journal Article
A number of organisations have developed clinical guidelines, typically at a national level, in order to increase appropriate health care.
Journal Article
The author responds to a critique of the methodology used by Gate et al. to assess the appropriateness of lymphoma treatment.
Journal Article
Where information about the appropriateness of a surgical procedure is lacking, expert panels have been used to establish guidelines for medical practitioners.
Report
This Note surveys the characteristics of several major methods (Delphi, Nominal Group, and models developed by the National Institutes of Health and by Glaser) and provides guidelines for those who want to use the techniques.
Report
A discussion of creativity and Delphi techniques to improve company research. The creative process synthesizes knowledge, logical reasoning, and originality--the mix depending on the field. In addition, the creative person uses multiple approaches,...
Report
An investigation of the effect on group accuracy of two variations in the Delphi procedures.
Report
An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values.
Report
This report describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.
Report
This Memorandum is a supplement to RM-5888-PR and presents material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography of RAND publications related to Delphi studies.
Report
An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.
Report
The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.
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