RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.
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An analysis of 30 insurgencies worldwide between 1978 and 2008 determined what factors were ultimately correlated with success or defeat. Comparing Afghanistan in early 2011 against this scorecard results in an uncertain outcome for the conflict there, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue.
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Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.
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ExpertLens, a RAND-developed system for eliciting opinions from a large group of people, saves on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy.
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This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method and Delphi consensus-building method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division highlights how these methods enable the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and the allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value,…
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This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.
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Awareness of the need for innovative approaches to obtaining feedback in community-based participatory research (CBPR) is increasing.
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Commentary on this issue of Psychiatric Services which describes an innovative method for choosing performance measures for early psychosis treatment services, the use of a Delphi group consensus method.
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Over the last decade, a number of organisations have developed clinical guidelines, typically at a national level, in order to increase appropriate health care.
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The author responds to a critique of the methodology used by Gate et al. to assess the appropriateness of lymphoma treatment.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Where information about the appropriateness of a surgical procedure is lacking, expert panels have been used to establish guidelines for medical practitioners.
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This Note surveys the characteristics of several major methods (Delphi, Nominal Group, and models developed by the National Institutes of Health and by Glaser) and provides guidelines for those who want to use the techniques.
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A discussion of creativity and Delphi techniques to improve company research. The creative process synthesizes knowledge, logical reasoning, and originality--the mix depending on the field. In addition, the creative person uses multiple approaches,...
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An investigation of the effect on group accuracy of two variations in the Delphi procedures.
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This Memorandum is a supplement to RM-5888-PR and presents material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography of RAND publications related to Delphi studies.
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This report describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.
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An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.
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An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values.
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The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.
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A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.
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The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.
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