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     <title>RAND Research Topic: Delphi Method</title>
     <link rel="self" href="http://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.xml"/>
     <updated>2012-05-24T14:56:31Z</updated>
     <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" hreflang="en" href="http://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html" />
     <rights>Copyright (c) 2012, The RAND Corporation</rights>
     <author>
       <name>RAND Corporation</name>
     </author>
     <id>http://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html</id>
	 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3558.html</id>
   <published>Nov 30, 2010</published>
   <updated>Nov 30, 2010</updated>
   <summary type="html">The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3558.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">How Does the Conflict in Afghanistan Compare to Counterinsurgencies of the Past 30 Years? </title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP337.html</id>
   <published>Jun 28, 2011</published>
   <updated>Jun 28, 2011</updated>
   <summary type="html">An analysis of 30 insurgencies worldwide between 1978 and 2008 determined what factors were ultimately correlated with success or defeat. Comparing Afghanistan in early 2011 against this scorecard results in an uncertain outcome for the conflict there, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP337.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">New RAND Research System Gathers, Analyzes Expert Opinions</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/news/press/2011/06/14.html</id>
   <published>Jun 14, 2011</published>
   <updated>Jun 14, 2011</updated>
   <summary type="html">Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/news/press/2011/06/14.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">ExpertLens: A System for Eliciting Opinions from a Large Pool of Non-Collocated Experts with Diverse Knowledge</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20110096.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 2010</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 2010</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;ExpertLens, a RAND-developed system for eliciting opinions from a large group of people, saves on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20110096.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG939.html</id>
   <published>Dec 15, 2009</published>
   <updated>Dec 15, 2009</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;This description of the application of the RAND Corporation&apos;s PortMan portfolio analysis and management method and Delphi consensus-building method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division highlights how these methods enable the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and the allocation of research and development (R&amp;amp;D) and operations and maintenance (O&amp;amp;M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG939.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities&apos; Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20080007.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 2007</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 2007</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;This article presents a method for the assessment of cities&apos; vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20080007.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Innovative Approaches to Obtaining Community Feedback in the Witness for Wellness Experience</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20061205.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 2005</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 2005</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;Awareness of the need for innovative approaches to obtaining feedback in community-based participatory research (CBPR) is increasing.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20061205.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Selecting Performance Measures By Consensus: An Appropriate Extension of the Delphi Method?</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20051219.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 2004</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 2004</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;Commentary on this issue of Psychiatric Services which describes an innovative method for choosing performance measures for early psychosis treatment services, the use of a Delphi group consensus method.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20051219.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">The Appropriateness of Treatment of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: A Comparison of Dutch and Multinational Criteria</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20010008.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 2000</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 2000</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;Over the last decade, a number of organisations have developed clinical guidelines, typically at a national level, in order to increase appropriate health care.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20010008.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Delphi-panel Analysis Paper By Gate Et Al.</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19990012.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1998</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1998</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;The author responds to a critique of the methodology used by Gate et al. to assess the appropriateness of lymphoma treatment.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19990012.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Panellist Consistency in the Assessment of Medical Appropriateness</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19960024.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1995</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1995</updated>
   <summary type="html">&lt;p&gt;Where information about the appropriateness of a surgical procedure is lacking, expert panels have been used to establish guidelines for medical practitioners.&lt;/p&gt;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19960024.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Consensus Methods: Characteristics and Guidelines for Use</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N3367.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1990</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1990</updated>
   <summary type="html">This Note surveys the characteristics of several major methods (Delphi, Nominal Group, and models developed by the National Institutes of Health and by Glaser) and provides guidelines for those who want to use the techniques.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N3367.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Creativity in Industrial Engineering.</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4601.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1970</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1970</updated>
   <summary type="html">A discussion of creativity and Delphi techniques to improve company research.  The creative process synthesizes knowledge, logical reasoning, and originality--the mix depending on the field.  In addition, the creative person uses multiple approaches,...</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4601.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">The Delphi Method, IV: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM6118.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1969</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1969</updated>
   <summary type="html">An investigation of the effect on group accuracy of two variations in the Delphi procedures.  </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM6118.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">The DELPHI Method, II: Structure of Experiments</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM5957.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1968</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1968</updated>
   <summary type="html">This Memorandum is a supplement to RM-5888-PR and presents material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography of RAND publications related to Delphi studies.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM5957.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM5888.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1968</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1968</updated>
   <summary type="html">This report describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM5888.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM6115.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1968</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1968</updated>
   <summary type="html">An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM6115.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Delphi and Values</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4182.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1968</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1968</updated>
   <summary type="html">An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values.  </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4182.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Experiments in Group Prediction</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3820.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1967</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1967</updated>
   <summary type="html">The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments. </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3820.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3925.html</id>
   <published>Dec 31, 1967</published>
   <updated>Dec 31, 1967</updated>
   <summary type="html">A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.  </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3925.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
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