Exploratory Modeling

  • News Release

    Economic Development Not the Only Influence on Personal Car Use

    Although countries with high levels of economic development generally have more personal automobile travel than less-affluent nations, income is not the only factor that determines a nation's demand for cars.

    Jul 18, 2014

  • Mototransport (bicycle cars) in New Delhi, India

    Report

    Exploring the Future of Driving in Developing Countries

    The level of automobility, or travel in personal vehicles, varies among countries. By determining the factors besides economic development that have affected automobility in developed countries, researchers can predict how automobility might evolve in developing countries.

    Jul 15, 2014

  • Stop sign in Russia

    Research Brief

    Driving in the Future in Developing Countries

    Automobility -- travel in personal vehicles -- varies between countries. This brief summarizes a study of the factors besides economic development that affect automobility and how automobility might evolve in developing countries.

    Jul 15, 2014

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    Research Brief

    How RAND Supported the Development of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan

    To plan the rebuilding of the Louisiana coastline, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from state-of-the-art predictive models within a decision tool to formulate and compare alternatives and visualize outcomes and trade-offs for policymakers and stakeholders.

    Mar 18, 2014

  • RDM decision tree

    Project

    RDMlab Innovates in Development of Robust Decision Sciences

    A collaboration among RAND, the Pardee RAND Graduate School, Evolving Logic, and network partners, RDMlab promotes the development and use of Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods for policy and decisionmaking.

    Jan 6, 2014

  • Atlanta traffic and skyline

    Event

    The Future of Mobility: Transportation 2030

    What will transportation look like in the United States in the year 2030? Multiple mobility scenarios are possible. Come hear how policymakers and planners can shape the future of mobility in the United States and what factors will influence the creation of the future transportation system.

    Dec 3, 2013

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    Tool

    Tool Helps Defense Planners Match Priorities for Security Cooperation

    A diagnostic tool maximizes the utility of security cooperation analyses and can help defense planners identify potential mismatches between security cooperation funding, priorities, and propensity for success with a given country.

    Nov 6, 2013

  • illustration of cars, trucks, buses, and helicopter traveling in a city

    Blog

    What Mobility Might Look Like in the U.S. in 2030

    Mobility — the ability to travel from one location to another — may look very different in the United States in the year 2030. Three key drivers differentiate possible scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulations, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures.

    Oct 28, 2013

  • depiction of fast-moving traffic at night

    Report

    Scenarios Examine Future of Mobility in the United States

    What might one expect for the future of mobility in the U.S. in 2030? A six-step scenario development process resulted in two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question, and three key drivers differentiate the scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulation, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures.

    Oct 24, 2013

  • globe and sun

    Content

    New Security Challenges: Washington Defense Security Course

    Since its inception in 2000, “New Security Challenges,” an intensive weeklong program offered by the Pardee RAND Graduate School, has equipped participants with an understanding of both the most critical current policy challenges and the most up-to-date analytical techniques for addressing them. The program aims to give participants both knowledge and tools that they can employ upon their return to their organizations.

    Aug 15, 2013

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    Report

    A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism - A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

    In the past, qualitative conceptual causal models called "factor trees" were used to identify the factors that contribute to aspects of terrorism or insurgency and how the factors relate to each other. This report goes beyond the qualitative by specifying a prototype computational social-science model of public support for terrorism and insurgency.

    May 1, 2013

  • Research Brief

    Robust Decision Making Aids Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

    Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning, but with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.

    Feb 28, 2013

  • Research Brief

    Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities

    The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

    Jan 29, 2013

  • Research Brief

    CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

    Oct 10, 2012

  • sandbags flood relief

    Report

    Risk Assessment Model Helps Louisiana Plan for Storm Surges

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model developed by RAND estimates flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and was used to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

    Oct 8, 2012

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    Report

    Applying Lessons from National Security Planning Under Uncertainty

    A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. Lessons from RAND's national security work on planning under uncertainty can be applied in many other fields.

    Jul 31, 2012

  • Report

    Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges

    Discusses alternative ways to think about modeling and simulation.

    Feb 4, 2011

  • Report

    Managing New Orleans Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation

    Considers proposals to augment the existing flood-damage protection system in New Orleans with ''nonstructural'' risk mitigation programs focused on single-family homes.

    Apr 20, 2010

  • Event

    Meeting the Challenges of Water Resource Planning

    Robert Lempert and David Groves will present Meeting the Challenges of Water Resource Planning: New Decision Support Methods for Water Managers Facing an Uncertain Future Climate at a RAND Congressional Briefing on January 31. Debra Knopman will make introductions.

    Jan 31, 2008

  • Report

    Exploratory Modeling and Adaptive Strategies for Investment in Standard Services to Facilitate Public Service Networks

    Compares several strategies for delivering common services and finds that complementary modular services improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding the customer base.

    May 10, 2006