Exploratory Modeling

All Items (36)

Report

A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling — May 1, 2013

Details a prototype computational model that seeks to explain, as a function of contributing factors, the extent of public support for insurgency and its use of terrorism. The model is believed to be reusable and suitable for composition.

Research Brief

Making Good Decisions Without Predictions: Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty — Feb 28, 2013

Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning. But with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.

Research Brief

Addressing Coastal Vulnerabilities Through Comprehensive Planning: How RAND Supported the Development of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan — Feb 12, 2013

The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

Research Brief

Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities — Jan 29, 2013

The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

Research Brief

CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning — Oct 10, 2012

The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

Report

Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment Model: Technical Description and 2012 Coastal Master Plan Analysis Results — Oct 8, 2012

Describes a model developed by RAND to estimate flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

Report

Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security — Jul 31, 2012

This review of two decades of RAND work on uncertainty analysis for national security applications shows the wide range of uncertainties that arise, the variety of analytic techniques needed, and progress made in dealing with deep uncertainty.

Journal Article

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges — Feb 4, 2011

Discusses alternative ways to think about modeling and simulation.

Report

Managing New Orleans Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation — Apr 20, 2010

Considers proposals to augment the existing flood-damage protection system in New Orleans with ''nonstructural'' risk mitigation programs focused on single-family homes.

Report

Exploratory Modeling and Adaptive Strategies for Investment in Standard Services to Facilitate Public Service Networks — May 10, 2006

Compares several strategies for delivering common services and finds that complementary modular services improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding the customer base.

Report

Zeroing In: A Capabilities-based Alternative to Precision Guided Munitions Planning — Nov 9, 2005

Uses the methodologies of exploratory modeling and robust planning to create a capabilities-based framework for the analysis of purchasing decisions for precision guided munitions.

Report

Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis — Jan 1, 2003

Using multiresolution, multiperspective modeling and exploratory analysis to validate models for specific contexts

Report

The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis — Jan 1, 2001

This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).

Journal Article

Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change — Jan 1, 2001

Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change

Journal Article

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling — Jan 1, 2001

... originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation.

Report

Expandability of the 21st Century Army — Jan 1, 2000

Said another way, today's expandability issues and impediments are likely to persist in most reasonable futures.

Report

The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education — Jan 1, 1998

Discusses a study that used a new approach to address the conditions under which California can preserve access to public higher education over the next two decades.

Report

New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning — Jan 1, 1998

In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof-of-concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S and T) planning.

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