Exploratory Modeling

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges — Feb 4, 2011

The paper discusses alternative ways to think about the modeling endeavor; the importance of including qualitative factors (i.e., "soft factors") despite critics who think that doing so reduces rigor; the fundamental necessity of worrying seriously about uncertainty from the outset, including the kinds of uncertainty present in complex adaptive systems; and about implications for design of models. The paper's admonitions would be…

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• Science and Technology Research Area

REPORT

Exploratory Modeling and Adaptive Strategies for Investment in Standard Services to Facilitate Public Service Networks — May 10, 2006

Compares several strategies for delivering common services and finds that complementary modular services improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding the customer base. The author uses a case study of a proposed investment in nationwide consolidated public safety wireless networks in Korea to demonstrate that well-designed adaptive strategies can mitigate risks and enhance long-term investment values.

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• Science and Technology Research Area

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Zeroing In: A Capabilities-based Alternative to Precision Guided Munitions Planning — Nov 9, 2005

Uses the methodologies of exploratory modeling and robust planning to create a capabilities-based framework for the analysis of purchasing decisions for precision guided munitions. Combining both methodologies makes it possible to create improved and flexible munitions portfolios that perform well across a variety of possible futures while operating within an economic framework.

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• National Security Research Area

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Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis — Jan 1, 2003

Examples of the use of multiresolution, multiperspective modeling (MRMPM) and exploratory analysis to validate models not based in settled theory or specific empirical testing. A model and its data may not be fully "valid" but may still be useful and good in more-limited ways. MRMPM and exploratory analysis are valuable for extrapolating, generalizing, and abstracting from small sets of analyses done with detailed models; for top-down…

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• Research Brief
• National Security Research Area

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Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis — Jan 1, 2003

The checkered history of predicting the future — e.g., “Man will never fly” — has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of…

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• Infrastructure and Transportation Research Area

REPORT

The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis — Jan 1, 2001

This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).

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• National Security Research Area

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling — Dec 31, 2000

... originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation.

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JOURNAL ARTICLE

Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change — Dec 31, 2000

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Expandability of the 21st Century Army — Jan 1, 2000

Said another way, today's expandability issues and impediments are likely to persist in most reasonable futures.

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• National Security Research Area

REPORT

The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education — Jan 1, 1998

Discusses a study that used a new approach to address the conditions under which California can preserve access to public higher education over the next two decades.

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• Education and the Arts Research Area

REPORT

New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning — Dec 31, 1997

In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof-of-concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S and T) planning.

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REPORT

Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies — Dec 31, 1993

This report applies an exploratory methodology for developing alternative models of the reasoning of national leaders considering acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.

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JOURNAL ARTICLE

Computational Experiments and Exploratory Modeling — Dec 31, 1993

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JOURNAL ARTICLE

Exploratory modeling : search through spaces of computational experiments — Dec 31, 1993

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JOURNAL ARTICLE

Validation of exploratory modeling — Dec 31, 1993

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JOURNAL ARTICLE

Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis — Dec 31, 1992

Distinguishes these two broad classes of model use, describes some of the approaches used in exploratory modeling, and suggests some technological innovations needed to facilitate it.

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REPORT

Exploratory Modeling and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis — Dec 31, 1991

Describes how "exploratory modeling" provides a rationale for how computer models can be fruitfully employed in support of policy studies.

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• Related Report

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Parametric and Parametrically Smoothed Distribution-Free Proportional Hazard Models with Discrete Data — Dec 31, 1990

This paper discusses discrete time proportional hazard models and suggests a new class of flexible hazard functions.

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• Health and Health Care Research Area

JOURNAL ARTICLE

On the Origin and Characteristics of Single-Sided Angle Modulation — Dec 31, 1964

Comments and replies between the author and colleagues on single-sided angle modulation (SSB-FM).

• Abstract

JOURNAL ARTICLE

The Analysts' Bookshelf: Publications of The RAND Corporation — Dec 31, 1955

The purpose of this note is to indicate the general nature of the RAND Corporations unclassified operations research output and to point out where it can be examined.

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