2012-05-24T14:56:34Z Copyright (c) 2012, The RAND Corporation RAND Corporation http://www.rand.org/topics/exploratory-modeling.html http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1422.html Feb 4, 2011 Feb 4, 2011

The paper discusses alternative ways to think about the modeling endeavor; the importance of including qualitative factors (i.e., "soft factors") despite critics who think that doing so reduces rigor; the fundamental necessity of worrying seriously about uncertainty from the outset, including the kinds of uncertainty present in complex adaptive systems; and about implications for design of models. The paper's admonitions would be straightforward except that they fly in the face of common organizational practice, which is to avoid soft factors, ignore uncertainty by obsessing on standard cases, and use models ill-designed for serious uncertainty analysis.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD199.html May 10, 2006 May 10, 2006

<p>Compares several strategies for delivering common services and finds that complementary modular services improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding the customer base. The author uses a case study of a proposed investment in nationwide consolidated public safety wireless networks in Korea to demonstrate that well-designed adaptive strategies can mitigate risks and enhance long-term investment values.</p>

http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD195.html Nov 9, 2005 Nov 9, 2005

<p>Uses the methodologies of exploratory modeling and robust planning to create a capabilities-based framework for the analysis of purchasing decisions for precision guided munitions. Combining both methodologies makes it possible to create improved and flexible munitions portfolios that perform well across a variety of possible futures while operating within an economic framework.</p>

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1750.html Jan 1, 2003 Jan 1, 2003

<p>Examples of the use of multiresolution, multiperspective modeling (MRMPM) and exploratory analysis to validate models not based in settled theory or specific empirical testing. A model and its data may not be fully "valid" but may still be useful and good in more-limited ways. MRMPM and exploratory analysis are valuable for extrapolating, generalizing, and abstracting from small sets of analyses done with detailed models; for top-down planning; and for providing broad, synoptic assessments.</p>

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1626.html Jan 1, 2003 Jan 1, 2003

<p>The checkered history of predicting the future &mdash; e.g., &ldquo;Man will never fly&rdquo; &mdash; has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.</p>

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1346.html Jan 1, 2001 Jan 1, 2001

This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).

http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP925.html Dec 31, 2000 Dec 31, 2000

... originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP904.html Dec 31, 2000 Dec 31, 2000

Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1190.html Jan 1, 2000 Jan 1, 2000

Said another way, today's expandability issues and impediments are likely to persist in most reasonable futures.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR971.html Jan 1, 1998 Jan 1, 1998

Discusses a study that used a new approach to address the conditions under which California can preserve access to public higher education over the next two decades.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB238.html Dec 31, 1997 Dec 31, 1997

In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof-of-concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S and T) planning.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR467.html Dec 31, 1993 Dec 31, 1993

This report applies an exploratory methodology for developing alternative models of the reasoning of national leaders considering acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP273.html Dec 31, 1993 Dec 31, 1993

Computational Experiments and Exploratory Modeling

http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP345.html Dec 31, 1993 Dec 31, 1993

Exploratory modeling : search through spaces of computational experiments

http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP298.html Dec 31, 1993 Dec 31, 1993

Validation of exploratory modeling

http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP211.html Dec 31, 1992 Dec 31, 1992

Distinguishes these two broad classes of model use, describes some of the approaches used in exploratory modeling, and suggests some technological innovations needed to facilitate it.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N3093.html Dec 31, 1991 Dec 31, 1991

Describes how "exploratory modeling" provides a rationale for how computer models can be fruitfully employed in support of policy studies.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19910002.html Dec 31, 1990 Dec 31, 1990

<p>This paper discusses discrete time proportional hazard models and suggests a new class of flexible hazard functions.</p>

http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19651202.html Dec 31, 1964 Dec 31, 1964

<p>Comments and replies between the author and colleagues on single-sided angle modulation (SSB-FM).</p>

http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP19560601.html Dec 31, 1955 Dec 31, 1955

<p>The purpose of this note is to indicate the general nature of the RAND Corporations unclassified operations research output and to point out where it can be examined.</p>