Forecasting Methodology

Research conducted by: Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy; RAND Europe; Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World

Featured at RAND

RAND Europe Team Offers Strategic Futures Analyses

By drawing on RAND's tradition of considering the future through new lenses, RAND Europe's Futures Analysis and Long-Term Planning group offers innovative, tailored approaches based on qualitative and quantitative methodologies, including scenario thinking, modeling and forecasting, gaming, road-mapping and Delphi.

All Items (84)

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions — Feb 1, 2012

Freight transport is a rapidly expanding and changing economic sector.

REPORT

Resource-Constrained Spatial Hot Spot Identification — May 11, 2011

Extends the "actionable hot spot" methodology, first developed by RAND to identify likely areas for improvised explosive device emplacement, to other problem areas where policymakers are faced with spatial, temporal, and quantity constraints when deploying scarce resources. Case studies describe its application to public health, countering piracy, and fighting neighborhood crime.

REPORT

Managing Air Force Joint Expeditionary Taskings in an Uncertain Environment — Feb 3, 2011

Since 2004, the U.S. Air Force has provided personnel for "joint sourcing solution" assignments in Iraq and Afghanistan. As a result, certain Air Force career fields are experiencing greater-than-expected deployment strains. Air Force personnel and deployment data were used to populate a RAND-developed model to assess the supply of and demand for Air Force personnel and various types of capabilities to fill joint assignments.

REPORT

Making Policy in the Shadow of the Future — May 21, 2010

The National Intelligence Council's 2008 report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World projects what the world will look like in 2025 based on recent trends. This paper asks: How should U.S. policy adapt now to account for these trends and the future that will result from them? The author explores such issues as climate change, defense, international relations, and the structure of the federal government.

PROJECT

Decision-making Health Policy Tools Help Improve the Lives of Older People — Mar 26, 2010

The RAND Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation developed better models to understand the consequences of biomedical developments and social forces for health, health spending, and health care delivery, particularly for the elderly.

REPORT

Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future — Dec 19, 2009

Israel can make natural gas usage a bigger part of its energy portfolio without jeopardizing its security, but even more importantly, the nation needs to make conservation measures a priority in its future energy plans.

REPORT

Trends in connectivity technologies and their socioeconomic impacts: Final report of the study: Policy Options for the Ubiquitous Internet Society — Dec 7, 2009

This report reviews technology trends underlying the future Internet Society 2020. It assesses possible future socio-economic impacts, and changing business models. The study makes recommendations for a new overarching EU ICT strategy.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? — Mar 30, 2009

Many scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions. Such investments are often justified by asserting that failure to improve predictions will prevent society from adapting successfully to changing climate.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Single Women's Labor Supply Elasticities: Trends and Policy Implications — Dec 31, 2008

This paper uses CPS data to examine changes in single women's labor supply elasticities in recent decades. Specifically, the authors investigate trends in how single women's hours of work and labor force participation rates responded to both wages and income over the years 1979-2003. Results from the base specification suggest that over the observation period, hours wage elasticities decreased by 82%, participation wage elasticities by…

REPORT

Options for Meeting the Maintenance Demands of Active Associate Flying Units — Jun 5, 2008

RAND developed a methodology to help understand and explain the differences between U.S. Air National Guard and active component aircraft maintenance productivity. This research focuses on maintenance options for supporting associate units, where the goal of the associate unit is to produce trained pilots in the most efficient manner possible.

REPORT

Natural Disaster Research Could Help Reduce Economic Losses — Oct 25, 2007

The nation may be able to reduce losses from disasters such as wildfires and floods if more research focused on how to protect people, buildings and infrastructure.

REPORT

Supporting the Future Total Force: A Methodology for Evaluating Potential Air National Guard Mission Assignments — Aug 19, 2007

Given manpower reductions in the active duty Air Force and availability of highly trained Air National Guard (ANG) personnel, some missions could be transferred from the active component to the ANG without significant cost to the total force. Portions of missions such as Predator operations and support, air mobility command and control, Commander of Air Force forces staffing, and base-level intermediate maintenance could benefit from ANG…

REPORT

Developing a Safety Net for Ukraine — Aug 19, 2007

Explores issues of development of social safety nets in countries in transition and looks at whether reducing social security expenditures to stimulate economic growth policy is an effective way to combat poverty in such countries.

RESEARCH BRIEF

A New Tool Forecasts Programmed Depot Maintenance Workloads for Aging Aircraft — May 22, 2007

This research brief describes a new tool for forecasting the maintenance workloads of aging Air Force fleets.

REPORT

Programmed Depot Maintenance Capacity Assessment Tool: Workloads, Capacity, and Availability — May 20, 2007

Aging U.S. Air Force fleets have deterioration problems, resulting in increased maintenance workloads. Programmed depot maintenance (PDM) is significant, requiring 2,000 to 50,000 labor hours and material. RAND developed the PDM Capacity Assessment Tool (PDMCAT), applied it to the KC-135 PDM process, with three alternative forecasts of future workload and two fleet-size scenarios, to inform aircraft availability and resource allocation…

JOURNAL ARTICLE

On the Development of Time Period and Mode Choice Models for Use in Large Scale Modelling Forecasting Systems — Dec 31, 2006

A substantial amount of research is presently being carried out to understand the complexities involved in modelling the choice of departure time and mode of travel.

REPORT

Sense and Respond Logistics: Integrating Prediction, Responsiveness, and Control Capabilities — Nov 22, 2006

This monograph describes some of the research that has been conducted on the military combat support system. It identifies the elements of sense and respond combat support and shows what is necessary to implement the concept. The monograph points out the need for both predictive tools and responsive systems working together. It also describes elements of one of the key enabler of sense and response combat support, combat support command…

RESEARCH BRIEF

Despite Deep Scientific Uncertainty, Long-Term Problems Can Be Tackled — Jun 22, 2006

This research brief describes an analytical approach developed by RAND to manage scientific uncertainty, which involves the use of computer programs to frame strategies that will work well across a wide range of plausible futures.

REPORT

What Should the U.S. Army Look Like in 20 Years? — Aug 25, 2005

Predicting the force needs of the Army is difficult in today's uncertain world. Alternative futures analysis offers a spectrum of different "future worlds" to help force developers meet the challenges of the next 20 years.

REPORT

Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods: Issues and Guidelines — Jul 25, 2005

Recommends an approach to improving the utility and accuracy of software cost estimates by exposing uncertainty (in understanding the project) and reducing the risks associated with developing the estimates. The approach focuses on characteristics of the estimation process (such as which methods and models are most appropriate for a given situation) and the nature of the data used (such as software size), describing symptoms and warning…

My RAND ?

Saved Items

Recommended