By drawing on RAND's tradition of considering the future through new lenses, RAND Europe's Futures Analysis and Long-Term Planning group offers innovative, tailored approaches based on qualitative and quantitative methodologies, including scenario thinking, modeling and forecasting, gaming, road-mapping and Delphi.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Freight transport is a rapidly expanding and changing economic sector.
REPORT
Extends the "actionable hot spot" methodology, first developed by RAND to identify likely areas for improvised explosive device emplacement, to other problem areas where policymakers are faced with spatial, temporal, and quantity constraints when deploying scarce resources. Case studies describe its application to public health, countering piracy, and fighting neighborhood crime.
REPORT
Since 2004, the U.S. Air Force has provided personnel for "joint sourcing solution" assignments in Iraq and Afghanistan. As a result, certain Air Force career fields are experiencing greater-than-expected deployment strains. Air Force personnel and deployment data were used to populate a RAND-developed model to assess the supply of and demand for Air Force personnel and various types of capabilities to fill joint assignments.
REPORT
The National Intelligence Council's 2008 report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World projects what the world will look like in 2025 based on recent trends. This paper asks: How should U.S. policy adapt now to account for these trends and the future that will result from them? The author explores such issues as climate change, defense, international relations, and the structure of the federal government.
PROJECT
The RAND Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation developed better models to understand the consequences of biomedical developments and social forces for health, health spending, and health care delivery, particularly for the elderly.
REPORT
Israel can make natural gas usage a bigger part of its energy portfolio without jeopardizing its security, but even more importantly, the nation needs to make conservation measures a priority in its future energy plans.
REPORT
This report reviews technology trends underlying the future Internet Society 2020. It assesses possible future socio-economic impacts, and changing business models. The study makes recommendations for a new overarching EU ICT strategy.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Many scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions. Such investments are often justified by asserting that failure to improve predictions will prevent society from adapting successfully to changing climate.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
This paper uses CPS data to examine changes in single women's labor supply elasticities in recent decades. Specifically, the authors investigate trends in how single women's hours of work and labor force participation rates responded to both wages and income over the years 1979-2003. Results from the base specification suggest that over the observation period, hours wage elasticities decreased by 82%, participation wage elasticities by…
REPORT
RAND developed a methodology to help understand and explain the differences between U.S. Air National Guard and active component aircraft maintenance productivity. This research focuses on maintenance options for supporting associate units, where the goal of the associate unit is to produce trained pilots in the most efficient manner possible.
REPORT
The nation may be able to reduce losses from disasters such as wildfires and floods if more research focused on how to protect people, buildings and infrastructure.
REPORT
Given manpower reductions in the active duty Air Force and availability of highly trained Air National Guard (ANG) personnel, some missions could be transferred from the active component to the ANG without significant cost to the total force. Portions of missions such as Predator operations and support, air mobility command and control, Commander of Air Force forces staffing, and base-level intermediate maintenance could benefit from ANG…
REPORT
Explores issues of development of social safety nets in countries in transition and looks at whether reducing social security expenditures to stimulate economic growth policy is an effective way to combat poverty in such countries.
RESEARCH BRIEF
This research brief describes a new tool for forecasting the maintenance workloads of aging Air Force fleets.
REPORT
Aging U.S. Air Force fleets have deterioration problems, resulting in increased maintenance workloads. Programmed depot maintenance (PDM) is significant, requiring 2,000 to 50,000 labor hours and material. RAND developed the PDM Capacity Assessment Tool (PDMCAT), applied it to the KC-135 PDM process, with three alternative forecasts of future workload and two fleet-size scenarios, to inform aircraft availability and resource allocation…
JOURNAL ARTICLE
A substantial amount of research is presently being carried out to understand the complexities involved in modelling the choice of departure time and mode of travel.
REPORT
This monograph describes some of the research that has been conducted on the military combat support system. It identifies the elements of sense and respond combat support and shows what is necessary to implement the concept. The monograph points out the need for both predictive tools and responsive systems working together. It also describes elements of one of the key enabler of sense and response combat support, combat support command…
RESEARCH BRIEF
This research brief describes an analytical approach developed by RAND to manage scientific uncertainty, which involves the use of computer programs to frame strategies that will work well across a wide range of plausible futures.
REPORT
Predicting the force needs of the Army is difficult in today's uncertain world. Alternative futures analysis offers a spectrum of different "future worlds" to help force developers meet the challenges of the next 20 years.
REPORT
Recommends an approach to improving the utility and accuracy of software cost estimates by exposing uncertainty (in understanding the project) and reducing the risks associated with developing the estimates. The approach focuses on characteristics of the estimation process (such as which methods and models are most appropriate for a given situation) and the nature of the data used (such as software size), describing symptoms and warning…
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