Forecasting Methodology

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  • High-tech analysis, photo by Sergey Nivens

    Journal Article

    Climate and Energy Analysis: Reinvigorating the Scenario Technique

    Feb 4, 2016

    Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis, but scenario developers and users typically capture only a subset of future uncertainties. By adopting three focal points as part of this methodology, researchers can expand uncertainty consideration and gather user-specific insights.

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    Report

    The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

    Sep 25, 2013

    Predictive policing methods fall into four general categories: methods for predicting crimes, predicting offenders, predicting perpetrators' identities, and predicting victims of crime. These methods are not equivalent to a crystal ball, but they can enhance proactive policing and improve intervention strategies.

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  • Aerial view of the Coronado Bridge, which connects San Diego and Coronado, at dusk

    Commentary

    Infrastructure Design Must Change with Climate

    Failure to plan for climate change in infrastructure design poses a real threat to public safety and the ability to meet environmental quality goals. Engineers need to work with scientists and risk analysts to understand climate projections and how to incorporate the information into their designs.

    Aug 12, 2016

  • Journal Article

    Stock Market Crash and Expectations of American Households

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index.

    Apr 4, 2016

  • Journal Article

    Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

    This study examines methods for estimating storm surges and flood statistics.

    Feb 26, 2016

  • Engineer looking at factory emissions

    Commentary

    Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty

    Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.

    Aug 11, 2015

  • Group of young students studying in the classroom with a laptop

    Report

    Education, Technology and Connectedness: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    The spread of technology and its relationship to education will transform the education and power of citizens, forming a significant societal challenge for the European Union in the coming decades.

    Feb 12, 2015

  • Employment ad

    Report

    Employment and the Changing Labor Market: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    An analysis of the important features of the global workforce, the new types of entrants to the labor market, vulnerable individuals in the labor force, and the skills mismatch affecting employers can help the EU anticipate future challenges and coordinate responses.

    Feb 12, 2015

  • Immigration entry stamp on the inside page of a passport

    Report

    Evolving Patterns and Impacts of Migration: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    An analysis of the impact of migration worldwide and the factors influencing migration and its relation to urbanization provides insight into the future of migration to Europe.

    Feb 12, 2015

  • Senior man holding child's hand outdoors

    Report

    A Growing and Aging Population: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    An analysis of the changing demographic profile of the world's population and major trends can help the EU anticipate future challenges. These trends relate chiefly to overall population growth, population decline in Europe, and, in the future, in other parts of the world.

    Feb 12, 2015

  • Masked protesters

    Report

    Individual Empowerment: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    Human development, grassroots movements, and access to the internet and social media are likely to empower citizens in Europe and beyond, forming a significant societal challenge for the EU in the coming decades.

    Feb 12, 2015

  • Upper facade of modern terraced real estate

    Report

    The Rise of a Global Middle Class: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    Accelerating economic growth has led to decreasing between-country inequality over the last decade but within-country inequality is on the rise. Within-country inequality may generate a range of negative outcomes, including potential decline in social cohesion.

    Feb 12, 2015

  • An airline passenger stands in a full-body scanner at a TSA checkpoint at LAX in February 2014 after U.S. authorities issued a warning to airlines to watch out for militants who may have hidden bombs in their shoes

    Commentary

    What Research Says About Profiling

    When police take action on the basis of race, creed, or ethnicity it is corrosive, unfair, ineffective, and can stoke the flames of police-community tension. But as we have found from a variety of assessments, law enforcement is best served when it bases its activities on risk—not on personal characteristics.

    Dec 18, 2014

  • Report

    Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment

    This report documents an assessment of a predictive policing effort that was conducted to evaluate the crime reduction effects of policing guided by statistical predictions.

    Jul 1, 2014

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    Research Brief

    How RAND Supported the Development of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan

    To plan the rebuilding of the Louisiana coastline, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from state-of-the-art predictive models within a decision tool to formulate and compare alternatives and visualize outcomes and trade-offs for policymakers and stakeholders.

    Mar 18, 2014

  • People commuting to work in London

    Commentary

    Building a Resilient Europe to Face Future Societal Changes to 2030

    Future “societal” trends, ranging from the future of the labor market to the evolving relationship between citizens and the state, are shrouded in uncertainty, which makes it difficult to develop robust, sensible predictions. A RAND Europe report analyzes global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU.

    Mar 10, 2014

  • Uniformed men, believed to be Russian servicemen, near a Ukrainian military base in the village of Perevalnoye

    Commentary

    I Predicted Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

    The Russian military intervention caught many foreign policy analysts by surprise. Articles explaining why Russia wouldn't intervene ran in Foreign Affairs, Time, and the New York Times; and even the intelligence community was caught off guard. Events have proven them wrong.

    Mar 10, 2014

  • Abstract cubes

    Report

    RAND Behavioral Finance Webinar: Craig Fox Presents "Metacognitive Knowledge and Financial Decision Making"

    Craig R. Fox discusses the importance of both subjective and objective knowledge in financial decision making.

    Mar 6, 2014

  • Power lines stretch across rural Turkey, where the World Bank has renewable energy and energy efficiency projects

    Commentary

    Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World

    Changing how we make development decisions requires a cultural shift as much as it requires an analytical shift. Methodological innovations like Robust Decision Making can help. By motivating and equipping analysts to manage uncertainty, they can shape how we think about, discuss, and make decisions.

    Feb 28, 2014

  • a police car pulling over a driver

    Commentary

    Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball

    Predictive policing is not an end-all solution, but rather a tool that must be used in concert with other policing resources as part of a broader anti-crime effort. Used properly, predictive policing can predict the risk of future events, but not the events themselves.

    Nov 15, 2013

  • police, car, cruiser, law, order, patrol, streets, crime, speeders, trap, waiting, lights, lightbar, city, watch, observe, neighborhood

    Research Brief

    Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement

    Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to prevent crime or solve past crimes. An assessment of some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches offers recommendations for police and developers.

    Oct 14, 2013