By drawing on RAND's tradition of considering the future through new lenses, RAND Europe's Futures Analysis and Long-Term Planning group offers innovative, tailored approaches based on qualitative and quantitative methodologies, including scenario thinking, modeling and forecasting, gaming, road-mapping and Delphi.
Commentary
When planning for the future, we should understand that the capacity to predict the future is rather limited and poor. Rather, an ability to anticipate plausible trends and their potential consequences is more realistic, writes Stijn Hoorens.
Research Brief
Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning. But with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.
Research Brief
The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.
Research Brief
The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.
Journal Article
Recent advances in GPS data processing have demonstrated that ground-based GPS receivers are capable of detecting ionospheric TEC perturbations caused by surface-generated Rayleigh, acoustic and gravity waves.
Research Brief
The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.
Report
Describes a model developed by RAND to estimate flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.
Journal Article
Freight transport is a rapidly expanding and changing economic sector.
Report
Describes a methodology for identifying areas where problem events are more pronounced and directing resources toward those areas.
Report
Air Force career fields are experiencing deployment strains due to joint requests for forces. A RAND-developed model used personnel and deployment data to assess the supply of and demand for personnel and capabilities to fill these joint assignments.
Report
Using a National Intelligence Council report on what the world will look like in 2025, this paper explores issues for which a long-term perspective might change U.S. policy now -- such as climate change, international relations, and nuclear abolition.
Project
The RAND Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation developed better models to understand the consequences of biomedical developments and social forces for health, health spending, and health care delivery, particularly for the elderly.
Report
Israel can make natural gas usage a bigger part of its energy portfolio without jeopardizing its security, but even more importantly, the nation needs to make conservation measures a priority in its future energy plans.
Journal Article
Many scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions.
Journal Article
This paper uses CPS data to examine changes in single women's labor supply elasticities in recent decades. Specifically, the authors investigate trends in how single women's hours of work and labor force participation rates responded to both wages and income over the years 1979-2003. Results from the base specification suggest that over the observation period, hours wage elasticities decreased by 82%, participation wage elasticities by 36%, and participation income elasticities by 57%. These results imply that changes in tax policy had a much larger effect on the labor supply and labor force participation behavior of women in this subpopulation in the early 1980s than in recent years.
Report
Evaluates maintenance options for U.S. Air Force associate units, where the goal of the associate units is to produce trained pilots in the most efficient manner possible.
Report
This book examines the impact of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act on the market for terrorism insurance and analyzes program enhancements to improve the availability of insurance for nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological attacks.
Report
Examines Air Force missions that could be transferred, in whole or in part, to the Air National Guard.
Report
Explores issues of development of social safety nets in countries in transition and looks at whether reducing social security expenditures to stimulate economic growth policy is an effective way to combat poverty in such countries.
Research Brief
This research brief describes a new tool for forecasting the maintenance workloads of aging Air Force fleets.
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