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Forecasting Methodology

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Journal Article

Climate and Energy Analysis: Reinvigorating the Scenario Technique

Feb 4, 2016

Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis, but scenario developers and users typically capture only a subset of future uncertainties. By adopting three focal points as part of this methodology, researchers can expand uncertainty consideration and gather user-specific insights.
Report

The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

Sep 25, 2013

Predictive policing methods fall into four general categories: methods for predicting crimes, predicting offenders, predicting perpetrators' identities, and predicting victims of crime. These methods are not equivalent to a crystal ball, but they can enhance proactive policing and improve intervention strategies.

Explore Forecasting Methodology

Commentary

Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens

It is difficult to determine what actions balance society's goals where there is deep uncertainty about the consequences. The decisionmaking under uncertainty methodology provides tools to acknowledge uncertainty, avoid overconfidence, promote deliberation, and help craft consensus on sensible approaches to climate change.

May 9, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Rail Demand Forecasting Estimation Study: Phase Reports

Review of the rail demand forecasting methods used by government, the study was completed in 2 phases.

Apr 27, 2017
Journal Article

Testing the Scenario Hypothesis: An Experimental Comparison of Scenarios and Forecasts for Decision Support in a Complex Decision Environment

Decision support tools are known to influence and facilitate decisionmaking through the thoughtful construction of the decision environment. However, little research has empirically evaluated the effects of using scenarios and forecasts.

Mar 16, 2017
Commentary

No Company Should Be Able to Keep You from Checking Your Government's Math

Data and computer models are becoming more and more important for making policy decisions on everything from prison sentences to tax bills. But citizens should be able to “check the math” on decisions that affect them.

Jan 18, 2017
Commentary

Pitfalls of Predictive Policing

The Chicago Police Department's predictive policing program didn't work. To achieve even a 5 percent drop in the city's homicide rate, enormous leaps in both prediction and intervention effectiveness are necessary.

Oct 11, 2016
Commentary

CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing

Predictive policing — the use of computer models to identify areas or people at greater risk of being involved in a serious crime — is yielding results for police. How authorities plan to respond to the data is key.

Sep 21, 2016
Commentary

Infrastructure Design Must Change with Climate

Until recently, infrastructure engineers could use data on past weather to predict future climate. But this is no longer an option. More and more, engineers must consider the effects of climate change. Failure to do so would threaten public safety.

Aug 12, 2016
Journal Article

Journal Article

Stock Market Crash and Expectations of American Households

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index.

Apr 4, 2016
Journal Article

Journal Article

Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

This study examines methods for estimating storm surges and flood statistics.

Feb 26, 2016
Commentary

Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty

Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.

Aug 11, 2015
Report

Education, Technology and Connectedness: Global Societal Trends to 2030

The spread of technology and its relationship to education will transform the education and power of citizens, forming a significant societal challenge for the European Union in the coming decades.

Feb 12, 2015
Report

Employment and the Changing Labor Market: Global Societal Trends to 2030

An analysis of the important features of the global workforce, the new types of entrants to the labor market, vulnerable individuals in the labor force, and the skills mismatch affecting employers can help the EU anticipate future challenges and coordinate responses.

Feb 12, 2015
Report

Individual Empowerment: Global Societal Trends to 2030

Human development, grassroots movements, and access to the internet and social media are likely to empower citizens in Europe and beyond, forming a significant societal challenge for the EU in the coming decades.

Feb 12, 2015
Report

Evolving Patterns and Impacts of Migration: Global Societal Trends to 2030

An analysis of the impact of migration worldwide and the factors influencing migration and its relation to urbanization provides insight into the future of migration to Europe.

Feb 12, 2015
Report

A Growing and Aging Population: Global Societal Trends to 2030

An analysis of the changing demographic profile of the world's population and major trends can help the EU anticipate future challenges. These trends relate chiefly to overall population growth, population decline in Europe, and, in the future, in other parts of the world.

Feb 12, 2015
Report

The Rise of a Global Middle Class: Global Societal Trends to 2030

Accelerating economic growth has led to decreasing between-country inequality over the last decade but within-country inequality is on the rise. Within-country inequality may generate a range of negative outcomes, including potential decline in social cohesion.

Feb 12, 2015
Commentary

What Research Says About Profiling

When police take action on the basis of race, creed, or ethnicity it is corrosive, unfair, ineffective, and can stoke the flames of police-community tension. But as we have found from a variety of assessments, law enforcement is best served when it bases its activities on risk—not on personal characteristics.

Dec 18, 2014
Report

Report

Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment

This report documents an assessment of a predictive policing effort that was conducted to evaluate the crime reduction effects of policing guided by statistical predictions.

Jul 1, 2014
Research Brief

How RAND Supported the Development of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan

To plan the rebuilding of the Louisiana coastline, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from state-of-the-art predictive models within a decision tool to formulate and compare alternatives and visualize outcomes and trade-offs for policymakers and stakeholders.

Mar 18, 2014

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RAND Topic:
Forecasting Methodology

Topic Synonyms:
Prediction

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