Foreign Relations

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How Does the Conflict in Afghanistan Compare to Counterinsurgencies of the Past 30 Years?

An analysis of 30 insurgencies worldwide between 1978 and 2008 determined what factors were ultimately correlated with success or defeat. Comparing Afghanistan in early 2011 against this scorecard results in an uncertain outcome for the conflict there, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue.

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Commentary

Obama-Park Summit a Critical Opportunity for the US-Korea Alliance — Apr 17, 2013

Secretary Kerry Meets With South Korean President Park Geun-hye

To preserve and protect the peace and freedom that has seen Asia develop into a third engine of the global economy, the United States and South Korea should take steps to deepen their security cooperation in three areas: bilateral alliance management, defense force modernization, and improved regional diplomatic coordination.

Commentary

When Armies Divide: Securing Nuclear Arsenals During Internal Upheavals — Apr 12, 2013

An army truck MZKT 79221 under missile Topol-M

With an army divided, any type of foreign intervention would be complex and fraught with extraordinary risk—success would be a long shot. But the loss of a nuclear weapon or fissile material would change the world.

Commentary

A Russia-China Alliance Brewing? — Apr 12, 2013

a handshake

Three major areas appear to have been the focus of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin's recent summit: managing expectations about the relationship; expanding bilateral trade in energy and arms; and cooperation on international security affairs.

Blog

A New Book from Brian Michael Jenkins: When Armies Divide — Apr 11, 2013

Cover of Brian Michael Jenkins' "When Armies Divide" book

In 1961, four French generals launched a coup against the government of President Charles de Gaulle and conceivably might have ended up with a nuclear device. In When Armies Divide, RAND's Brian Michael Jenkins uses this unusual chapter in history to discuss what can happen when nuclear states are threatened by revolts, coups, and civil wars.

Commentary

A Delicate Deterrence Dance with North Korea — Apr 11, 2013

ROK guards in the DMZ

How does Washington signal tenacity to a pugnacious Pyongyang and demonstrate resolve to a jittery Seoul, all without inadvertently triggering an escalatory spiral?

Report

When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars — Apr 11, 2013

This book examines the security of nuclear arsenals during revolts, coups, and civil wars.

Blog

Korea Tensions Different from Previous 'Normal Crises,' RAND Experts Tell Media — Apr 9, 2013

DPRK Kumsusan Memorial Palace

Three RAND Corporation researchers discussed the regional and global implications of the recent flurry of bluster and provocation emanating from North Korea, during a conference call April 9 with reporters.

Multimedia

Media Conference Call on Escalating Tensions on the Korean Peninsula — Apr 9, 2013

RAND Asia experts Bruce Bennett, Andrew Scobell and David Shlapak hosted a news media conference call to discuss the escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula. Media Relations Officer Joe Dougherty moderated the call.

Blog

In Brief: Jeffrey Martini on Mapping Egyptian Politics — Apr 8, 2013

Martini_Screen Shot 2013-04-08

In this video, RAND Middle East analyst Jeffrey Martini discusses what past electoral performance and the current political context say about the Islamists' strength in Egypt and what it means for the United States.

Commentary

Why It's No Longer the Chummy 1990s for Turkey, Israel — Apr 8, 2013

Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Istanbul, Turkey, April 7, 2013

President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are working hard to repair relations between Turkey and Israel and deserve credit for their efforts. But much has changed for both countries since they cooperated in the 1990s, and progress toward rapprochement will likely be slow.

Report

The Relationship between Natural Resources and China's Maritime Disputes — Apr 4, 2013

South China Sea map

Media and policy sources often cite natural resources as a primary driver of tensions in the South and East China Seas. In reality, the region’s hydrocarbon potential is moderate. Resource issues function primarily as focal points for more powerful underlying drivers of domestic political legitimacy, popular nationalism, and regional order.

Blog

In North Korea, Belligerence Precludes Progress — Apr 3, 2013

Kim Il-Sung Square, Pyongyang North Korea

North Korean belligerence is preventing it from moving toward critical economic reform, says Richard Solomon, a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation and former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

Commentary

Why China’s Suntech Might Not Be Alone in Heading Toward Bankruptcy — Mar 29, 2013

An array of solar panels

As solar power remains more expensive than conventional sources of electricity in most parts of the world, demand for photovoltaic solar panels still primarily depends on government subsidies, says Keith Crane.

Commentary

The Risks of an Excess of Caution in Syria — Mar 29, 2013

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry Kerry and Syrian Opposition Council Chairman Mouaz al-Khatib during Kerry's 2013 Middle East visit

Syria is looking more like a collapsed state every day. Nearly a million people have now fled Syria for safety abroad. Meanwhile, the influence of extremist groups, such as the al Nusrah Front, continues to grow as these groups slip into the areas vacated by the Syrian state, writes Christopher Chivvis.

Commentary

America's Delicate Dance in the Pacific — Mar 28, 2013

A Japanese Coast Guard patrol vessel passes by Uotsuri, the largest island in the Senkaku/Diaoyu chain

Even if Japan and China ease the tensions in their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyus islands, the United States should gird itself for further uncomfortable contingencies in the coming years, writes David Shlapak.

Commentary

Why Erdogan Wants Peace With the PKK — Mar 27, 2013

Kurdistan Workers' Party soldiers, commonly known as PKK near the Iran/Iraqi Kurdistan border

With the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) now apparently ready to try to peacefully resolve differences with Turkey, the prospects that the uprising will come to an end have improved, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

Report

Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt — Mar 22, 2013

To help U.S. policymakers and Middle East watchers better understand voting patterns in Egypt, RAND researchers identified regional voting trends and where Islamists are strongest. It appears they may face increasing challenges.

Commentary

Iraq Isn't as Fragile as It Looks — Mar 19, 2013

Repairs to the golden domes of Kadhimayn Mosque in 2008.

Ten years after the Iraq war started, violence may persist, but the new order survives without U.S. assistance. And it is a lot less fragile than it often appears, says Lowell Schwartz.

Report

After the Withdrawal: A Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan — Mar 19, 2013

Tarin Kot, Afghanistan chief of police

At the time of the U.S. withdrawal, there are several militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan that threaten U.S. security and its interests overseas. How can we avoid the inherent risks in the drawdown?

Report

Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition — Mar 18, 2013

free_syrian_army_soldier_pre_baath_flag_6957563747_7e520af1f0_z

Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict, and external actors have become involved as well. RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play, including the actors, their motivations, and potential impact of their activities.

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