Global climate models developed by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict glacial retreat, rises in sea level, and other impacts on human and natural activity, from agriculture to migratory patterns. RAND researchers have studied and are continuing to examine the effects of climate change, particularly how governments and businesses respond to both observed changes and projected scenarios.
Research conducted by: RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment; Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy; Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World; Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program
Commentary (8)
In case after case, the theory that best fits the data is the one that also leads inexorably to the conclusion that human influence is one of the most important forces currently changing the climate, writes Robert J. Lempert.
We cannot wish away serious ecological issues, such as the steady increase in greenhouse gases or the steady decrease in critical resources (e.g., phosphates). But population growth per se need not portend ecological catastrophe, writes Martin Libicki.
If it were really possible to explain millions of years of Earth data with a theory that doesn't also imply a recent human influence on the climate, some ambitious, self-interested team of scientists somewhere in the world would seek scientific renown by doing so, writes Robert Lempert.
Limiting climate change requires a revolution in the way the global economy generates and consumes energy. It is becoming increasingly clear that the current diplomatic approach should be redesigned to meet this immense political, technical, and social challenge, writes Robert J. Lempert.
If the United States is to be a global competitor in green building technology, it needs to learn from some of the countries that are at the table in Pittsburgh this week, writes Charles Ries.
Instead of the complicated "cap-and-trade" system to reduce carbon emissions proposed in current congressional legislation, a tax on carbon dioxide refunded directly to individuals would cut emissions while cushioning the impact on the pocketbooks of American families, write Keith Crane and James Bartis.
If Saddam Hussein is ousted as leader of Iraq, the United States will face critical decisions about the future of the world's second-largest oil reserves, writes policy analyst James Bartis.
Published commentary by RAND staff: Missed Opportunities in Johannesburg in United Press International on October 22, 2002.
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