Report
This paper proposes a paradigm shift in how military intelligence is fused. The concept, behavioral intelligence analysis, provides a more complete picture of the complex counterinsurgency environment.
News Release
The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground.
Report
The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent, and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground.
Research Brief
Current processes used by the U.S. military do not provide accurate assessments of counterinsurgency campaigns. A new process that adds transparency and context to assessments would make them more credible and useful at all levels of decisionmaking.
Report
These proceedings present the topics and findings discussed at a workshop convened to examine how consumers of intelligence might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than most of today's intelligence products.
Research Brief
Describes a framework for thinking about commanders' critical information needs in countersurgency operations and offers practical ways for commanders to integrate influence activities into combined arms planning and assessment.
Commentary
Questions not asked or stories not imagined by policy are not likely to be answered or developed by intelligence, writes Gregory F. Treverton.
Journal Article
This article reviews the research literature on group-level phenomena that are most relevant to the work of intelligence analysts.
Report
An application of RAND's PortMan portfolio analysis and Delphi methods for the National Security Agency (NSA) that enables allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.
Report
With terrorism still prominent on the U.S. agenda, whether the country’s prevention efforts match the threat the United States faces continues to be central in policy debate. One element of this debate is questioning whether the United States should create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency. Case studies of five other democracies provide lessons and common themes that may help policymakers decide.
Report
Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for a subsequent IW intelligence analysis curriculum development effort.
Report
The Collection Operations Model is a stochastic, agent-based simulation that supports the analysis of command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C3ISR) processes.
News Release
One lesson of 9/11 is that the signs of the attack were not assembled into a warning that might have made it possible to prevent the disaster. In the wake of that failure, one question on the U.S. agenda is whether the country needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency – separate from law enforcement – to address the U.S. terrorist threat.
Research Brief
This research brief discusses the pros and cons of creating a new domestic intelligence agency, separate from law enforcement, to address the threat of terrorism and describes a technique called break-even analysis that can help inform the debate.
Report
Examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.
Report
This report assesses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes recommendations for getting and keeping the people intelligence needs and giving analysts the tools to do better work.
Report
Describes how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk and assist intelligence analysis.
Commentary
Published commentary by RAND staff: Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering, in the Washington Times.
Journal Article
Overview of international intelligence cooperation, key aspects of post-9/11 collaboration in the GWOT, and challenges to cooperation post-9/11.
Report
Policymakers increasingly rely on information-age data sources, especially to help them track fast-changing, international events, but many still prefer intelligence analysis conveyed through one-on-one briefings.
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