NEWS RELEASE
The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground.
REPORT
The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent, and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground.
RESEARCH BRIEF
Current processes used by the U.S. military do not provide accurate assessments of counterinsurgency campaigns. A new process that adds transparency and context to assessments would make them more credible and useful at all levels of decisionmaking.
REPORT
These proceedings present the topics and findings discussed at a July 2010 workshop convened to examine how consumers of intelligence might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than the current reporting that dominates today's intelligence production. An appendix presents relevant lessons from the private sector.
RESEARCH BRIEF
Describes a framework for thinking about commanders' critical information needs in countersurgency operations and offers practical ways for commanders to integrate influence activities into combined arms planning and assessment.
COMMENTARY
Questions not asked or stories not imagined by policy are not likely to be answered or developed by intelligence, writes Gregory F. Treverton.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
This article reviews the research literature on group-level phenomena that are most relevant to the work of intelligence analysts.
REPORT
This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method and Delphi consensus-building method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division highlights how these methods enable the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and the allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value,…
REPORT
With terrorism still prominent on the U.S. agenda, whether the country’s prevention efforts match the threat the United States faces continues to be central in policy debate. One element of this debate is questioning whether the United States should create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency. Case studies of five other democracies provide lessons and common themes that may help policymakers decide.
REPORT
Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.
REPORT
The Collection Operations Model (COM) is a stochastic, agent-based simulation that supports the analysis of command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C3ISR) processes. Written for the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation environment, the COM models the real-time interaction of many players to help answer questions about force mix, system effectiveness, concepts of operations, and basing and…
NEWS RELEASE
One lesson of 9/11 is that the signs of the attack were not assembled into a warning that might have made it possible to prevent the disaster. In the wake of that failure, one question on the U.S. agenda is whether the country needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency – separate from law enforcement – to address the U.S. terrorist threat.
RESEARCH BRIEF
This research brief discusses the pros and cons of creating a new domestic intelligence agency, separate from law enforcement, to address the threat of terrorism and describes a technique called break-even analysis that can help inform the debate.
REPORT
Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. They will most likely face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.
REPORT
While the initiatives set in motion by the December 2004 intelligence reform legislation are promising, they are just the beginning. Intelligence analysis needs improvement across U.S. intelligence agencies to account for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War.
REPORT
The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly towards a process designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. A probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assist intelligence analysis by assessing risk across cities and within specific cities.
COMMENTARY
Published commentary by RAND staff: Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering, in the Washington Times.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, it will provide a broad overview of international intelligence cooperation, a phenomenon also known as intelligence liaison. Second, it will discuss key aspects of post-9/11 intelligence collaboration in the global war on terrorism. Finally, the paper will explore some of the challenges to intelligence cooperation since the attacks of 11 September 2001.
REPORT
Policymakers increasingly rely on information-age data sources, especially to help them track fast-changing, international events, but many still prefer intelligence analysis conveyed through one-on-one briefings.
COMMENTARY
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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