RAND Research Topic: Intelligence Analysis 2012-05-24T14:56:50Z Copyright (c) 2012, The RAND Corporation RAND Corporation http://www.rand.org/topics/intelligence-analysis.html New Counterinsurgency Assessment Methods Are Needed to Better Inform Policymakers http://www.rand.org/news/press/2012/05/03.html May 3, 2012 May 3, 2012 The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground. New Counterinsurgency Assessment Methods Are Needed to Better Inform Policymakers http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1086.html May 3, 2012 May 3, 2012 The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent, and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground. Improving Counterinsurgency Campaign Assessment: The Importance of Transparency in the Fog of War http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9645.html Apr 13, 2012 Apr 13, 2012 Current processes used by the U.S. military do not provide accurate assessments of counterinsurgency campaigns. A new process that adds transparency and context to assessments would make them more credible and useful at all levels of decisionmaking. Making Strategic Analysis Matter http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF287.html Mar 9, 2012 Mar 9, 2012 These proceedings present the topics and findings discussed at a July 2010 workshop convened to examine how consumers of intelligence might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than the current reporting that dominates today's intelligence production. An appendix presents relevant lessons from the private sector. Addressing Commanders' Needs for Information on "Soft" Factors http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9628.html Dec 5, 2011 Dec 5, 2011 Describes a framework for thinking about commanders' critical information needs in countersurgency operations and offers practical ways for commanders to integrate influence activities into combined arms planning and assessment. What Should We Expect of Our Spies? http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/05/25/PM.html May 25, 2011 May 25, 2011 Questions not asked or stories not imagined by policy are not likely to be answered or developed by intelligence, writes Gregory F. Treverton. The Group Matters: A Review of Processes and Outcomes in Intelligence Analysis http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP201100102.html Dec 31, 2010 Dec 31, 2010 This article reviews the research literature on group-level phenomena that are most relevant to the work of intelligence analysts. A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG939.html Dec 15, 2009 Dec 15, 2009 <p>This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method and Delphi consensus-building method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division highlights how these methods enable the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and the allocation of research and development (R&amp;D) and operations and maintenance (O&amp;M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.</p> Considering the Creation of a Domestic Intelligence Agency in the United States: Lessons from the Experiences of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG805.html Feb 19, 2009 Feb 19, 2009 With terrorism still prominent on the U.S. agenda, whether the country’s prevention efforts match the threat the United States faces continues to be central in policy debate. One element of this debate is questioning whether the United States should create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency. Case studies of five other democracies provide lessons and common themes that may help policymakers decide. Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG668.html Dec 11, 2008 Dec 11, 2008 <p>Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.</p> A RAND Analysis Tool for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance: The Collections Operations Model http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR557.html Nov 25, 2008 Nov 25, 2008 <p>The Collection Operations Model (COM) is a stochastic, agent-based simulation that supports the analysis of command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C3ISR) processes. Written for the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation environment, the COM models the real-time interaction of many players to help answer questions about force mix, system effectiveness, concepts of operations, and basing and logistics. </p> Should the United States Establish a Dedicated Domestic Intelligence Agency for Counterterrorism? http://www.rand.org/news/press/2008/10/22.html Oct 22, 2008 Oct 22, 2008 One lesson of 9/11 is that the signs of the attack were not assembled into a warning that might have made it possible to prevent the disaster. In the wake of that failure, one question on the U.S. agenda is whether the country needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency &ndash; separate from law enforcement &ndash; to address the U.S. terrorist threat. Should the United States Establish a Dedicated Domestic Intelligence Agency for Counterterrorism? http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9369.html Aug 21, 2008 Aug 21, 2008 <p>This research brief discusses the pros and cons of creating a new domestic intelligence agency, separate from law enforcement, to address the threat of terrorism and describes a technique called break-even analysis that can help inform the debate.</p> Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG682.html May 22, 2008 May 22, 2008 <p>Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. They will most likely face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.</p> More Value Should be Placed on the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR293.html Feb 29, 2008 Feb 29, 2008 <p>While the initiatives set in motion by the December 2004 intelligence reform legislation are promising, they are just the beginning. Intelligence analysis needs improvement across U.S. intelligence agencies to account for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War.</p> Determining What Cities Are at Greatest Risk for Terrorist Attack http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR386.html Nov 6, 2007 Nov 6, 2007 <p>The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly towards a process designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. A probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assist intelligence analysis by assessing risk across cities and within specific cities. </p> Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering http://www.rand.org/commentary/2007/03/11/WT.html Mar 11, 2007 Mar 11, 2007 Published commentary by RAND staff: Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering, in the Washington Times. Liaisons Dangereuses? Transatlantic Intelligence Cooperation and the Global War on Terrorism http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20070002.html Dec 31, 2006 Dec 31, 2006 <p>The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, it will provide a broad overview of international intelligence cooperation, a phenomenon also known as intelligence liaison. Second, it will discuss key aspects of post-9/11 intelligence collaboration in the global war on terrorism. Finally, the paper will explore some of the challenges to intelligence cooperation since the attacks of 11 September 2001.</p> Technology's Impact on Policymaking http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD186.html Jul 1, 2005 Jul 1, 2005 <p>Policymakers increasingly rely on information-age data sources, especially to help them track fast-changing, international events, but many still prefer intelligence analysis conveyed through one-on-one briefings.</p> True Intelligence Reform Is Cultural, Not Just Organizational Chart Shift http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/01/13/CSM.html Jan 13, 2005 Jan 13, 2005 Published commentary by RAND staff.