International Affairs

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How Does the Conflict in Afghanistan Compare to Counterinsurgencies of the Past 30 Years?

An analysis of 30 insurgencies worldwide between 1978 and 2008 determined what factors were ultimately correlated with success or defeat. Comparing Afghanistan in early 2011 against this scorecard results in an uncertain outcome for the conflict there, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue.

Commentary (694)

Libya's Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi? — Feb 28, 2011

The new, post-Qaddafi era is likely to be marked by the emergence of long-suppressed domestic groups jostling for supremacy in what is sure to be a chaotic political scene, writes Frederic Wehrey.

Bahrain Protests: A Point of No Return for Ruling Family—and Obama — Feb 23, 2011

The only route out of the current impasse may be a fully functioning and pluralistic parliament like the one that enabled Bahrain's golden days, writes Frederic Wehrey.

Egypt Faces Rough, Unchartered Road — Feb 22, 2011

The most favorable outcome achievable in Egypt might be what we see in Iraq, but without the violence, writes Harold Brown.

The Kremlin's Bold Missile Defense Gambit — Jan 27, 2011

Russia's proposal for joint missile defense represents a potential game-changer for the Kremlin's relations with the West, writes Andrew Weiss.

China's Next Buying Spree: Foreign Companies — Jan 24, 2011

What is significant about China's acquisitions over the past few years is the change they represent from the negligible amounts in the past, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.

Iran Overhauls Subsidies in the Face of Sanctions — Jan 13, 2011

The Iranian regime plans to replace nearly $100 billion of government subsidies on fuel, electricity, and food with more targeted assistance to needy Iranians. If successful, the overhaul would be a major and historic change, one designed to save the government money in the wake of international sanctions, writes Alireza Nader.

A WikiLeaks Disconnect — Dec 6, 2010

Given domestic pressures and intra-Arab rivalries, all Arab states hedge in their policies toward Iran, seeking to rein in Iranian influence but also being mindful of the permanence of Iranian power and the costs of antagonizing it, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.

The US Midterm Elections and US-Turkish Relations — Nov 23, 2010

Some Turkish commentators have written off Obama as a lame duck and advised the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan government to begin reconsidering relations in the post-election period. However, foreign policy played virtually no role in the election, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

Alternative to Futile Negotiations with N.K. — Nov 23, 2010

Clearly, it's time for a new strategy, one that North Korea has been loathe to discuss: hasten Korean unification under South Korea's leadership, writes Bruce Bennett.

Revolutionary Guards Criticize Ahmadinejad — Nov 5, 2010

Ahmadinejad, who has been opposed by the reformists and the pragmatic conservatives, is increasingly viewed as a divisive figure even within the principlist (fundamentalist) camp, writes Alireza Nader.

American Public Diplomacy Needs Right Balance Between Civilian and Military Leadership — Oct 31, 2010

All parties would like to see greater U.S. capability to inform, influence, and persuade abroad, with the Department of State as the robust leader of American public diplomacy and the Department of Defense as a valued and supporting partner, writes Christopher Paul.

Your COIN Is No Good Here — Oct 26, 2010

One can legitimately argue for reducing the United States' commitment to the Afghan war, but it makes no sense to denigrate the tactics and techniques best designed to counter an insurgency, writes James Dobbins.

Our Foes Cannot Destroy This Nation — Sep 27, 2010

We have come through wars, depressions, natural and man-made disasters, indeed higher levels of domestic terrorist violence than that we face today, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

An Old Scourge Needs a Modern Solution — Sep 3, 2010

Piracy is a crime at sea, but it starts on land. To thwart the Somali piracy career path, the world community should put funds toward protecting local fishing grounds and building a national coast guard capability in Somalia, writes Peter Chalk.

A To-Do List for Shoring Up Haiti — Aug 23, 2010

It is not enough to raise stronger buildings. What Haiti truly needs is a more resilient and effective government, write James Dobbins and Laurel Miller.

Budget Cuts Are Cracking the West's Defenses — Aug 17, 2010

Washington would be wise to work closely with Britain and France to ensure that their budget cuts do not threaten how the allies will, together, address common threats and security challenges, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.

This May Be a Key Year, but Alas Not a Decisive One — Aug 1, 2010

As observers laud the new START treaty for bringing back a framework that will make substantial U.S. and Russian nuclear reductions possible, they must recognise that lowering numbers is not the same as stripping nuclear weapons of their values, writes Olga Oliker.

Psychological Operations by Another Name Are Sweeter — Jul 29, 2010

The Department of Defense has decided to change the name of military psychological operations (PSYOP) and this is a good thing, writes Christopher Paul.

A Bottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan — Jul 15, 2010

The Afghan government has embarked on a high-stakes gamble: Try to negotiate with the leaders of the various insurgent networks to end the nine-year-old Afghan war. The notion of the Kabul government cutting a deal with the Taliban is fiercely controversial, write Wali Shaaker and John Parachini.

Redesigning the International Approach to Climate Change — Jul 1, 2010

Limiting climate change requires a revolution in the way the global economy generates and consumes energy. It is becoming increasingly clear that the current diplomatic approach should be redesigned to meet this immense political, technical, and social challenge, writes Robert J. Lempert.

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