More than 30 years after Iran's revolution, its political, military, and international activities continue to challenge and perplex its neighbors and many Western democracies. RAND research has informed and influenced U.S. policymakers on a range of topics, from engagement and containment and Tehran's ability to exploit pan-Islamic causes to Iran's ongoing development of nuclear capabilities.
The partnership between China and Iran presents challenges to U.S. interests, including dissuading Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. An analysis of the factors driving Chinese-Iranian cooperation offers policy options for influencing this partnership to meet U.S. objectives.
A new book by the late French scholar Thérèse Delpech provides a critical review and update of nuclear deterrence theory, focusing a critical eye on nuclear issues during the Cold War, examining the lessons of past nuclear crises, and outlining ways in which these lessons apply to major nuclear powers and nuclear pretenders today.
Social media was used in the 2009 protests to organize and communicate under government censorship. An analysis of more than 2.5 million tweets discussing the Iran election holds promise for such policy uses as assessing public opinion and forecasting events such as large-scale protests.
The United States should engage in activities that increase understanding about how a deterrence relationship between Israel and Iran may evolve, and encourage direct communication between Israelis and Iranians through informal diplomatic channels.
The June 2011 conference titled "Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change: Mutual Equities and Enduring Partnerships" included discussion of the Arab Spring, the prospects for and implications of a more-unified Gulf Cooperation Council, how Gulf militaries and their relationships with the United States may be affected by political changes, how present-day events may influence or alter the threat posed by Iran, and how CENTCOM may be…
An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States or Israel would make it more, not less difficult to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. The sympathy aroused for Iran would make containment of Iranian influence much more difficult for Israel, for the U.S., and for the Arab regimes currently allied with Washington.
Employs an expected utility model to predict how Iranian policy is developing on several key issues and explores US strategy and policy options for influencing their development.
Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on The Middle East and South Asia, provides insight into the Islamic Republic of Iran's human rights abuses, the Iranian regime's behavior in light of the Arab Spring, and the current state and future prospects of the opposition Green Movement.
Iran's complex and, at times, contradictory set of cultural, religious, political, and security interests shapes its behavior in Afghanistan, to the benefit and detriment of U.S. objectives.
A new survey of Iranian public opinion finds that a majority of respondents oppose the re-establishment of ties with the United States, and a significant number also support the development of nuclear weapons.
Recent events in Egypt and Tunisia underscore the importance of examining potential leadership succession in key countries prior to when they occur, in part to help maximize the United States' ability to influence rapidly evolving events.
The U.S. must determine how best to promote long-term security and stability in the Persian Gulf region while seeking to reduce the risks and costs imposed by its role as a permanent regional power—particularly vis-à-vis Iraq's future, the role of Iran, asymmetric threats, regional tensions, and the roles of other external actors.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq and the ensuing conflict in that country fostered the rise of Iranian power in the region, but with more limitations than is commonly acknowledged. It also diminished local confidence in U.S. credibility and created opportunities for China and Russia.
When crafting policy decisions about Iran, the U.S. should take a nuanced view of its complex system of government and politics. Although Iran is a rising Middle East power, there has been no official diplomatic relations between the two nations since 1980, and Iran's decisionmaking process is far from transparent.
In testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, James Dobbins explains why further international sanctions will probably not compel a change in Iran's nuclear policies nor cause a halt to those programs, but should nevertheless be pursued.
Starting in 2008, the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy conducted a series of exercises to help the new U.S. administration address the challenges of the Arab-Israeli conflict (and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular) as a key component of the broader effort to secure stability in the Middle East.
Many analysts have examined the media that violent extremists use to communicate their core messages. Far less research, however, has been devoted to the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism.
China is a global actor of significant and growing importance, now integrated into the international system and altering that system's dynamics. The complexity of China's ever-changing global activism raises questions about its intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.
During the Iraq war, Coalition forces first classified the MeK, an Iranian militant group advocating the overthrow of their government, as enemy combatants operating in Iraq. Following a ceasefire agreement, the U.S. controversially switched their status to civilian. This decision and what should now be done with MeK members is reviewed.
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