RAND researchers have pioneered several different methodologies, such as the Delphi method and robust decisionmaking, and continue to apply their methodological expertise in multidisciplinary projects that may require a range of capabilities, including modeling and simulation, survey research, economic or statistical analysis, or planning and forecasting.
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This report describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.
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This Memorandum is a supplement to RM-5888-PR and presents material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography of RAND publications related to Delphi studies.
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A description of improved methods for forecasting depot maintenance manpower requirements and depot item repair levels to facilitate effective long-term depot logistics planning. These methods improve on those currently used by making better use of ...
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Description of a one-dimensional model of Arctic sea ice. The inputs are: albedo, incoming radiation, turbulent fluxes, oceanic heat flux, ice salinity, and snow accumulation.
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An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.
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A discussion of appropriate transformations that effectively reduce nonlinear zero-one formulations to equivalent linear zero-one formulations. The transformation is applied to a particular type of investment problem in which the high-risk investment...
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A brief discussion of the current trends of research into the theory of n-person games.
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The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.
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A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.
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A comparison of the effectiveness of current methods which measure fighter aircraft system performance.
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The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.
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A consideration of three probable trends in operations research (systems analysis) in a talk before the 22nd Military Operations Research Symposium: (1) An increasing concern for the web of relationships linking the problems of national security and...
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Two statistical examinations of accident and attrition data for all jet fighters that had seen substantial Air Force usage by 1963: the first to distinguish gross factors affecting safety (landing speed, single vs. twin engines, ...
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A description and listing of the experimental code used to obtain the computational experience reported in RM-5644-PR.
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An application of the techniques of mathematical modeling and game theory to an investigation of the voting process and its function in the political economy of a democracy with competitive markets. The investigation is limited to the study of a two...
Journal Article
Author comments on contributions to the balanced budget multiplier theorem.
Journal Article
Many problems in operations research, engineering, and economics require that several objectives be examined simultaneously.
Journal Article
Minimum Rayleigh number that will induce a state of convective motion in a Boussinesq fluid where temperature gradient is in direction of body force.
Journal Article
Discusses a practical framework for more positive management control of exploratory development programs and certain applied research programs.
Journal Article
No stable outcome normally exists with vote trading; the author points out flaws in James S. Coleman's social welfare function model.
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