North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.
If the North Korean government were to suddenly collapse, the consequences could jeopardize regional security in Northeast Asia and undermine U.S. interests. Preparation is needed now to convince the North Korean elites and others that South Korea-led unification in the aftermath of a collapse will be in their interests.
Like the collapse of East Germany, the collapse of North Korea could occur suddenly and with little warning. But a North Korean collapse could be far more dangerous and disastrous than the actual collapse of East Germany, especially given the inadequate preparations for it.
Questions the current common view of the North Korean missile program and seeks to better characterize the North Korean missile threat by comparing the available data on the North Korea missile program against several possible hypotheses.
A new book by the late French scholar Thérèse Delpech provides a critical review and update of nuclear deterrence theory, focusing a critical eye on nuclear issues during the Cold War, examining the lessons of past nuclear crises, and outlining ways in which these lessons apply to major nuclear powers and nuclear pretenders today.
Assesses the security and economic policy responses of a representative sample of Asian states to China between 1992 and 2008.
Analyzes North Korea's Decision-making process regarding its nuclear programs with two choice models -- Rational Choice and Cognitive Choice -- and suggest effective/adaptive/robust deterrence strategy for the ROK-US combined forces.
North Korea has denied the United States information about its nuclear weapon program, resulting in a high degree of uncertainty about the number and character of its nuclear weapons, how they might be used, and what impact they might have.
China is a global actor of significant and growing importance, now integrated into the international system and altering that system's dynamics. The complexity of China's ever-changing global activism raises questions about its intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.
Will the current global economic recession have long-term geopolitical implications? Assuming that economic recovery begins in the first half of 2010, lasting structural alterations in the international system — a substantial change in U.S.-China relations, for example — are unlikely. This is because economic performance is only one of many geopolitical elements that shape countries' strategic intent and core external policies.
The United States has an opportunity to improve relations with Russia and build on shared views and interests, rather than pursue coercive steps that may one day backfire. At the same time, the United States and its allies cannot give Russia a veto on key policy goals.
The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the need to prepare for a high-end future conflict against a powerful, well-armed opponent versus the so-called Long War against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. The answer depends to a large extent on the evolution of U.S. relations with China and Iran and the future of the United States itself.
The United States' 2006 reversal of its 2002 proclamation that deterrence was irrelevant to most future national security strategies is bolstered by research which shows that deterrence will likely play an ongoing role in U.S. efforts to manage a variety of threats, including both near-peer competitors and terrorist organizations.
In a conference cohosted by RAND and the Center for Naval Analyses Corporation, members of the U.S. defense community discussed approaches to meeting the challenges of a demanding future security environment.
The foreign policy success of incoming presidents, particularly in the early years of a presidency, is largely determined by how well the new administration learns from the successes and failures of the outgoing president.
Historical examples and the analysis of two modified Delphi exercises augment an examination of approaches to escalation management within the demands of today’s security environment and its attendant threats involving not only long-standing nuclear powers, but also insurgent groups and terrorists.
The predominant threat to U.S. security in the 21st century comes not from the actions of opposing countries but from the fallout of collapsing ones. The world’s leading states can and should help the citizens of failed states by integrating efforts to reduce violence, advance the economy, and reform government.
An unprecedented joint report by researchers from the U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea recommends a new approach to promoting the modernization of North Korea, as well as a "tool kit" to enable North Koreans to create their own modernization plans.
Post-Cold War Asia is increasingly unstable due to changes in relationships among the major countries, risks to the globalization process that underlay U.S. Cold War successes, and failure so far of U.S. strategies to adapt to the new environment.
Analyzes the economic, political, and security issues associated with Korean unification and considers what the capital costs of unification would be under differing circumstances and assumptions.