JOURNAL ARTICLE
Freight transport is a rapidly expanding and changing economic sector.
REPORT
Applies robust decision methods to evaluate California's transportation policies that considers multiple views of the future, and identifies strategies that consistently reduce emissions at acceptable costs regardless of future conditions.
MULTIMEDIA
David Groves discusses an innovative approach to dealing with the many challenges that may contribute to sustainable and affordable solutions of long term water supplies in California.
REPORT
Geoengineering is risky, but could transform the portfolio of options for limiting future climate change. Some geoengineering approaches could prove fast acting and inexpensive and could be deployed by one or a few nations without global cooperation.
MULTIMEDIA
Robert Lempert, Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, highlights the Robust Decision Making (RDM) method and presents an example of how RDM allowed a municipal water utility to revise their long term plans while still considering climate change.
REPORT
The digital revolution has fundamentally modified the way that research results are circulated, reviewed, accessed and preserved. Established models of market dynamics and stewardship need to be rethought and part of the responsibilities of national libraries redefined.
RESEARCH BRIEF
This research brief describes an analytical approach developed by RAND to manage scientific uncertainty, which involves the use of computer programs to frame strategies that will work well across a wide range of plausible futures.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
A potentially rich vein of transdiciplinary research is to integrate the psychology of decision making, known as judgment and decision making, of JDM, with the development of technical information and decision support tools for complex, long-term environmental problems.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
The authors have developed an alternative framework focused on flexibility--finding, testing and implementing policies that work well no matter what happens.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
The authors demonstrate, using the example of planning for long-term global sustainability, how RAP methods may offer greater insight into the vulnerabilities inherent in several types of surprises and enhance decision makers' ability to construct strategies that will mitigate or minimize the effects of surprise.
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Decision-makers need to develop a climate policy acceptable to groups with many different estimates of the likelihood of alternative futures, and may tend to rely on strategies that work reasonably well instead of alternatives across a wide range of plausible scenarios. The authors agreed with a recommendation for use of ensembles of multiple scenarios to capture what is known about the long-term climate future.
PEOPLE
Senior Behavioral Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
M.A. in sociology, University of California, Los Angeles
PEOPLE
Assistant Policy Analyst
Ph.D. candidate in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; B.S. in management science, University of California San Diego
PEOPLE
Policy Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.S. in atmospheric sciences, University of Washington; M.S. in earth systems, B.S. in geological and environmental sciences, Stanford University
PEOPLE
Assistant Policy Analyst
M.Phil. (Ph.D. candidate) in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; B.A. in applied mathematics, Harvard University
PEOPLE
Assistant Policy Analyst
Ph.D. candidate in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.S. in mathematics, University of Cambridge; B.S. in mathematics, North Carolina State University
PEOPLE
Information Scientist
Ph.D. and M.S. in robotics, Carnegie Mellon University; B.S. in computer science, Cornell University
PEOPLE
Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. in applied physics, S.M. in applied physics and science policy, Harvard University; B.A.S. in physics and political science, Stanford University
PEOPLE
Operations Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ph.D. in industrial engineering, Arizona State University; M.S. in management science, University of Miami; B.S. in systems analysis, University of Miami
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2012 RAND Corporation. Last Modified: January 29, 2011 Site Feedback »