Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning. But with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.
Growing water needs combined with uncertain but possibly deteriorating future hydrologic conditions could stress the Colorado River system in the coming 50 years. Options that could be effective in improving it include urban conservation, agricultural conservation, and groundwater desalination.
Policy Researcher David Groves describes RAND's role in helping to develop a plan to guide Louisiana's coastal investments, help its coastal citizens plan for the future, and create a sustainable coast.
RAND is working with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to explore the use of Robust Decision Making in the Bureau's long-term planning for the Colorado River.
RAND helped Louisiana develop its 2012 Coastal Master Plan to guide the state's coastal investments and help its coastal citizens plan for the future. The plan strikes a balance between providing immediate relief to hard hit areas and laying groundwork for large-scale efforts.
An October RAND program features David Groves, a policy researcher whose work on water resources management has helped several water agencies in California address climate change in their long-term planning.
David Groves discusses an innovative approach to dealing with the many challenges that may contribute to sustainable and affordable solutions of long term water supplies in California.
The Qatar Foundation is establishing a national research institute to conduct energy, environment, and water research. This book recommends research priorities for the institute and reports on a survey of related research institutions in the region.
The 2010 Integrated Resource Plan Update developed by the Los Angeles Metropolitan Water District (MWD) includes a preferred resource mix as well as an adaptive management approach to monitor key trends and modify the resource mix as necessary. RAND helped the MWD determine which trends are most useful to monitor.
The Southern California Metropolitan Water District sought advice determining which trends are most useful to monitor to implement its adaptive management strategy. RAND supported Metropolitan's Blue Ribbon Commission to develop recommendations for a new business model to help the agency meet its goals over the next fifty years.
Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that consumers do respond to changes in marginal price. Doubling marginal price leads to a 12% decrease in water use (500 cubic feet per bill) among high-use households.
RAND brings together cross-disciplinary research teams to evaluate the complex issues surrounding water resources management and planning; apply innovative methods that tackle problems from multiple perspectives and address uncertainty that is often ignored; and recommend solutions that are innovative, effective, and enduring.
This paper describes work helping the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) explicitly develop adaptive policies to respond to climate change and integrating these policies into the organizations' long-range planning processes.
This briefing presents an analysis of how different adaptive water-management strategies may reduce Southern California's vulnerability to climate change and other planning uncertainties.
RAND researchers are working with water agencies in California to help them better understand how climate change might affect their systems and what actions they may need to take to address this challenge. This report documents the study.
Water managers in Southern California, who grapple with how to address climate change in their near-term and long-term plans, are beginning to seek methods for incorporating such changes in their planning processes.
This fact sheet describes a case study of commercial-building water efficiency and the Building Water Efficiency Analysis Model used to conduct it. The model allows convenient assessment of potential value of water-efficiency investments.
Description of a new analytic method, based on robust decisionmaking, that could be applied to water resource management in California and climate change policy questions.
Reports the experiences from four major floods since 1948 to draw lessons for the Gulf coast restoration effort.
Describes an analytic methodology for decisionmaking under uncertainty and applies it to long-term water planning in California.