Philip Armour

@economistphil on Twitter

Economist; Professor of Policy Analysis and Director of Research, Analysis, & Design, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, Cornell University; M.Sc. in econometrics, London School of Economics; M.A. in economics, Cornell University; B.A. in economics/literature/mathematics, Pomona College

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Philip Armour (he/his) is an economist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. As an empirical labor economist, he relies on variation in labor market trends and public policy to uncover how individuals perceive eligibility for and generosity of government benefits, how workers adapt to changing health, how households and individuals make financial decisions, and how and when workers stop working. At RAND, he has worked at the intersection of labor market outcomes, financial well-being, and health conditions, and the implications for public program design, including those administered by the Department of Defense, the VA, and the Social Security Administration. His research has been published in academic journals, policy briefs, and RAND reports, and has been funded by various government agencies, including the Social Security Administration, the Department of Defense, the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, the National Institute on Aging, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Department of Labor.

Armour earned a Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University and an M.Sc. in econometrics from the London School of Economics, and he currently teaches courses in general equilibrium and public finance at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He also is the director for the Research, Analysis, and Design Stream at Pardee RAND.

Research Focus

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Microeconomics II

Commentary

Addressing SSDI's Looming Insolvency
Social Security Disability Insurance will be unable to cover 20 percent of its scheduled benefit obligations beginning in 2016. The lack of an evidentiary base to guide policy has been one of the major impediments to the consideration of changes that could modernize the program without jeopardizing its essential safety net function.
Nov 12, 2014 The RAND Blog

Publications

Journal Article
How Did the Reintroduction of the Social Security Statement Change Workers' Expectations and Plans?
This study fielded a survey in RAND's American Life Panel, coinciding with the partial reintroduction of the Social Security Statement. The findings indicate that regular mailings can play a role in shaping workers' retirement plans.
2020
Report
Department of the Air Force Civilian Compensation and Benefits: How Five Mission Critical and Hard-to-Fill Occupations Compare to the Private Sector and Key Federal Agencies
The authors examine U.S. Air Force civilian compensation for hard-to-fill and mission critical occupations, comparing it with other federal agencies and the private sector and providing recommendations for recruiting and retaining civilian talent.
Feb 10, 2021
Report
RAND Behavioral Finance Forum: Financial Security Over the Lifespan
Video compilation of the 2020 Behavioral Finance Forum (BeFi). Leaders from academia, government, regulatory agencies, and industry were invited to share the latest research and exchange ideas on the theme of financial security over the lifespan.
Feb 2, 2021
Report
Characteristics and Duty Limitations of Service Members Transferring Between the Active and Reserve Components
The authors analyze characteristics and duty limitations of service members who transfer between active and reserve components and make recommendations to reduce the number of personnel who transfer with medical conditions that limit deployability.
Dec 15, 2020
Report
Telecommuting and Work in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Are Workers Returning to the Workplace or Staying in Their Home Offices?
RAND researchers examine changes in workers' ability to telecommute during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic over time and by occupation. The data were collected through the RAND American Life Panel as part of an ongoing analysis.
Dec 3, 2020
Report
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Changing Nature of Work: Lose Your Job, Show Up to Work, or Telecommute?
This report examines how much the ability to work from home has mitigated the economic effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The data were collected through the RAND American Life Panel as part of an ongoing analysis.
Jun 18, 2020
Draft
Retirement Security and Financial Decision Making
Identifies key decisions prior to retirement that may be correlated with insecurity in later years and populations who may benefit most from targeted information.
Jan 2, 2020
Report
The Relationship Between Disability Evaluation and Accession Medical Standards
If accession medical policies are changed, does the probability of medical discharge change? If so, how does the change in the probability of medical discharge alter postservice costs to the department? This report answers these questions.
Mar 11, 2019
Report
The Potential Economic Value of Unlicensed Spectrum in the 5.9 GHz Frequency Band: Insights for Future Spectrum Allocation Policy
WiFi plays an indispensable role in generating economic prosperity and opportunity. This report helps quantify WiFi's value by estimating the potential economic value of opening the 5.9 GHz frequency band for WiFi use.
Nov 28, 2018
Draft
Drawing Down Retirement Wealth: Interactions between Social Security Wealth and Private Retirement Savings
Uses Health and Retirement Study survey data matched to Social Security administrative data to study how households integrate Social Security benefits into their general retirement income plans.
Feb 2, 2017
Research Brief
How Does Expanding Health Insurance Coverage Affect Workers' Compensation Costs?
The Affordable Care Act's expansion of coverage for people under age 26 led to a 1-percent reduction in uninsurance, equating to a 0.8-percent decrease in workers' compensation claim frequency, and a roughly 1-percent decrease in overall claim costs.
Nov 22, 2016
Journal Article
Using the Pareto Distribution to Improve Estimates of Topcoded Earnings
Using Pareto estimation methods with less-censored internal data, we create an enhanced cell-mean series to capture top earnings in the public-use data.
Nov 4, 2016
Draft
Health Insurance and Workers' Compensation Claiming: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act
Exploits the Affordable Care Act young adult dependent coverage expansion to measure the effect of health coverage expansions on workers' compensation claim frequency and severity.
Sep 14, 2016
Report
Current and Projected Characteristics and Unique Health Care Needs of the Patient Population Served by the Department of Veterans Affairs
Veterans who rely on Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care are older and less healthy than other veterans. Analysis of a range of data sources showed how the veteran population and demand for VA health care could change in the next decade.
Dec 31, 2015
Multimedia
RAND Behavioral Finance Webinar: Informative or Misleading? The Social Security Statement's Effects on Program Participation and Employment
This video talk provides an overview of how information interventions like the personalized Statements mailed by the Social Security Administration can affect behavior.
Jan 30, 2015