RAND: Raphael S. Cohen 2021-04-30T16:29:48Z Copyright (c) 2021, The RAND Corporation RAND Corporation https://www.rand.org/about/people/c/cohen_raphael_s.html Book Review: 'Liberalism, the Blob, and American Foreign Policy: Evidence and Methodology' by Robert Jervis Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/03/book-review-liberalism-the-blob-and-american-foreign.html 2021-03-12T20:30:00Z 2021-03-12T20:30:00Z Robert Jervis' &ldquo;Liberalism, the Blob, and American Foreign Policy: Evidence and Methodology&rdquo; is a thoughtful review of two books written by prominent international relations theorists John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. Jervis focuses his critique primarily on methodology and argues that the actual historical record is more complicated than either Mearsheimer or Walt suggests. What the UAE Weapons Deal Says About the United States and Its Alliances Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/03/what-the-uae-weapons-deal-says-about-the-united-states.html 2021-03-01T16:00:00Z 2021-03-01T16:00:00Z Various U.S. administrations have long wanted U.S. allies to do more, but in many parts of the world the most logical partners are authoritarian states with different interests than those of the United States. The sale of military equipment to the United Arab Emirates provides just the latest example. Why Biden Can't Turn Back the Clock on the Iran Nuclear Deal Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/03/why-biden-cant-turn-back-the-clock-on-the-iran-nuclear.html 2021-03-01T13:00:44Z 2021-03-01T13:00:44Z Enacted in 2016, the Iran nuclear deal was predicated on a geopolitical context that no longer exists. Addressing Iran's nuclear program today may require a different solution. Why Overseas Military Bases Continue to Make Sense for the United States Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/01/why-overseas-military-bases-continue-to-make-sense.html 2021-01-14T15:50:00Z 2021-01-14T15:50:00Z Voices on the left and right have proposed downsizing America's overseas military footprint. While the merits of basing in a particular location should be open to debate, the underlying twin logics of deterrence and reassurance behind permanently stationing American forces overseas remain operationally, economically, and strategically as sound as ever. Why We 'Send Them Money' Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/12/why-we-send-them-money.html 2020-12-30T15:30:00Z 2020-12-30T15:30:00Z Why does the United States send foreign countries American taxpayer money? The answer, in short, is because it serves U.S. self-interest to do so. Aid is not some act of charity at the American taxpayers' expense; it can help keep Americans safer, more prosperous, and secure. The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2020/09/the-future-of-warfare-qa-with-raphael-cohen.html 2020-09-08T05:00:00Z 2020-09-08T05:00:00Z What will the next decade of warfare look like? Raphael Cohen led a project to answer that question for the U.S. Air Force. The team considered not just technological or force changes, but also how global politics, economics, and the environment will shift and evolve between now and 2030. Why the United States Will Need a New Foreign Policy in 2020 Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/05/why-the-united-states-will-need-a-new-foreign-policy.html 2020-05-26T13:45:00Z 2020-05-26T13:45:00Z Even before the pandemic, the United States faced a growing strategic predicament: U.S. challenges are mounting, and America's international commitments increasingly outstrip its means to fulfill them. Why COVID-19 Will Not Stop Globalization Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/why-covid-19-will-not-stop-globalization.html 2020-04-13T16:15:00Z 2020-04-13T16:15:00Z Commentators have predicted that the outbreak will upend how we think about the flow of people and goods across borders and leave a markedly different world in its wake. But while COVID-19 will change the mechanics of globalization, it will likely not spell globalization's death knell. What Do You Do with a Problem Like COVID-19? Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/what-do-you-do-with-a-problem-like-covid-19.html 2020-04-10T13:30:00Z 2020-04-10T13:30:00Z Over the last several decades, Americans' trust in their government and its institutions crumbled. Beyond that, the value of truth and expertise, the common bedrock of sound policymaking, was decaying in American society. COVID-19 might present an opportunity to correct some of these ills. The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/01/the-politics-of-man-hunting-and-the-illusion-of-victory.html 2020-01-22T16:30:00Z 2020-01-22T16:30:00Z Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories. Baghdad Siege Wasn't Benghazi, and Never Will Be Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/01/baghdad-siege-wasnt-benghazi-and-never-will-be-heres.html 2020-01-06T12:15:00Z 2020-01-06T12:15:00Z Given the heightened tension between the United States and Iran and the ongoing instability in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad may very well be attacked again. If such an attack were to be successful, it would be more akin to the fall of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon than the U.S. mission in Benghazi. The Flawed Logic of Proportionality Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/07/the-flawed-logic-of-proportionality.html 2019-07-01T09:01:00Z 2019-07-01T09:01:00Z President Trump halted a retaliatory strike against Iran on the basis that it would have claimed many Iranian lives and was not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. There are many good reasons to avoid attacking Iran, but if Washington must resort to force in the future, it should avoid the flawed logic of proportionality. What Ronald Reagan Can Teach Us About Dealing with Contemporary Russia Raphael S. Cohen; James Dobbins https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/what-ronald-reagan-can-teach-us-about-dealing-with.html 2019-05-13T13:45:00Z 2019-05-13T13:45:00Z Politics loves its historical analogies and today, perhaps, there is no more common a comparison to the Trump presidency than the Reagan administration. Reagan's tenure was marked by his successful competition with the Soviet Union. Does Reagan provide a blueprint for triumphing over modern Russia? Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe Raphael S. Cohen; Andrew Radin https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/02/russias-soft-strategy-to-hostile-measures-in-europe.html 2019-02-26T11:15:00Z 2019-02-26T11:15:00Z They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one. What Border Walls Can and Cannot Accomplish Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/01/what-border-walls-can-and-cannot-accomplish.html 2019-01-08T11:30:00Z 2019-01-08T11:30:00Z States have been building walls since ancient times. Some were arguably quite successful, others less so. At the core of prudent policy lies a basic question: What can walls realistically accomplish? The More Things Change: Explaining Continuity in Defense Strategy Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/04/the-more-things-change-explaining-continuity-in-defense.html 2018-04-25T14:00:00Z 2018-04-25T14:00:00Z United States presidential administrations from Clinton to Trump have championed different approaches to military and defense policy. The verbiage of the <em>National Defense Strategy</em>, however, remains relatively the same and the numbers reflect more incremental rather than monumental shifts. Political Warfare Is Back with a Vengeance Raphael S. Cohen; Linda Robinson https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/04/political-warfare-is-back-with-a-vengeance.html 2018-04-13T13:30:00Z 2018-04-13T13:30:00Z The United States' principal adversaries are fighting and gaining ground by employing a host of tactics short of all-out war. This form of warfare, once called political warfare, is back with a vengeance, empowered by new tools and techniques. Minding the Gap: The Military, Politics, and American Democracy Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/12/minding-the-gap-the-military-politics-and-american.html 2017-12-18T16:00:00Z 2017-12-18T16:00:00Z The gap between Americans' confidence in the military versus its civilian counterparts has widened over the last several decades. This has led former military officers to play an increasingly prominent role in politics and changed the civil-military balance in potentially unhealthy ways. Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/08/five-lessons-from-israels-wars-in-gaza.html 2017-08-03T07:57:00Z 2017-08-03T07:57:00Z After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza. Why Strategies Disappoint — and How to Fix Them Raphael S. Cohen https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/03/why-strategies-disappoint-and-how-to-fix-them.html 2017-03-20T10:13:00Z 2017-03-20T10:13:00Z Strategies fail because leaders are unwilling to make difficult decisions at the risk of being wrong. Can the new U.S. administration succeed in fixing the strategy process?