Ben Connable

Senior Political Scientist; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in war studies, King's College London; M.A. in national security affairs, Naval Postgraduate School; M.A. in strategic intelligence, American Military University; B.A. in political science, University of Colorado, Boulder

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Ben Connable is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, a member of the faculty at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, and a retired Marine Corps intelligence and Middle East Foreign Area officer. He focuses on warfighting, European regional, Middle East regional, and national strategy issues in support of U.S. Department of Defense sponsors.

Connable has an extensive background in military cultural terrain theory and application, having served as cultural advisor to general officers in Iraq and as the head of the Marine Corps cultural intelligence program. He is currently researching will to fight, human behavior representation in modeling and simulation, and a number of regional issues.

Connable received his Ph.D. in war studies from King's College London War Studies Department, his M.A. in strategic intelligence from American Military University, his M.A. in national security affairs from the Naval Postgraduate School, and his B.A. in political science from the University of Colorado–Boulder. He was the 2012 General Lemuel C. Shepherd Memorial Dissertation Fellow, and his team received the 2020 Leonard Schaeffer Medal for work to help stabilize Yemen.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University

Recent Projects

Will to Fight
Russian Measures Short of War
Combat Survivability
Human Behavior Representation
Middle East regional analysis

Selected Publications

Connable, B., An Enduring American Commitment in Iraq: Shaping a Long-Term Strategy with Iraqi Army Partners, RAND (PE-353), 2020

Connable, B.; Young, S.; Pezard, S.; Radin, A.; Cohen, R.; Migacheva, K.; Sladden, J., Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition, RAND (RR-2539), 2020

Connable, B.; McNerney, M.; Marcellino, W.; Frank, A.; Hargrove, H.; Posard, M.; Zimmerman, S.; Lander, N.; Castillo, J.; Sladden, J., Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units, RAND (RR-2341), 2018

Connable, B., Leveraging Development Aid to Address Root Causes in Counterinsurgency: Balancing Theory and Practice in "Hold" and "Build", RAND (WR-983), 2013

Connable, B., Embracing the Fog of War: Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency, RAND (MG-1086), 2012

Connable, B., Military Intelligence Fusion for Complex Operations: A New Paradigm, RAND (OP-377), 2012

Connable, B.; Libicki, M., How Insurgencies End, RAND (MG-965), 2010

Honors & Awards

Lemuel C. Shepherd Memorial Dissertation Fellowship, Marine Corps Heritage Foundation
Two Silver Medals, one Bronze Medal for research, RAND
Leonard Schaeffer Medal, RAND

Languages

Arabic--Intermediate

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Al-Ghad, Jordan

Commentary: CNN; The Hill; Newsweek; U.S. News & World Report; War on the Rocks

Commentary

Russian Mercenaries in Great-Power Competition: Strategic Supermen or Weak Link?
The weaknesses within Russian mercenary forces and within the Russian state in relation to press-ganged youths, conscripts, and casualties may offer opportunities for exploitation in great-power competition. These broader weaknesses in Russian national will to fight could be examined to identify more ways to prevent Russia from aggressively undermining Western democracy.
Mar 9, 2021 The RAND Blog
Competition in Iraq
Tensions between the United States and Iran reached a boiling point in January 2020, when Iranian-backed forces attacked U.S. military and diplomatic facilities on Iraqi soil, and the United States retaliated. Policymakers and experts again asked: Why are we in Iraq? What would happen if we left, and why would it matter?
Jun 5, 2020 Rudaw
The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East
The greatest limitation of Russia's Middle East strategy is that it is not Russia, but the Middle Eastern states themselves that determine the depth of their relations with Moscow. Just as Russia seeks to engage in the Middle East for its own benefit, these states also seek to use Russia to their advantage.
May 10, 2018 London School of Economics
Partitioning Iraq: Make a Detailed Case, or Cease and Desist
The mostly non-Iraqi voices who want to divide the country into three ethno-sectarian cantonments—Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurd—owe the Iraqi people extensive, detailed clarification. If neither the Iraqi Arab polity nor Iraq's most powerful political factions seek three-way partition, then the case should be closed.
May 16, 2016 War on the Rocks
Iraq Reconciliation Requires American Help
It is time for the United States to step in and take the lead on the crucial process of reconciling the Sunnis with their government in order to bolster the tactical fight against ISIL and to ensure Iraq does not further destabilize.
May 5, 2016 The National Interest
To Undermine ISIS, We Should Welcome Syrian Refugees
Demonstrating American goodwill to Syrian refugees is the best way to help defeat ISIS and rehabilitate America's image in the chaotic Middle East.
Dec 3, 2015 Newsweek
Go Slow on Arming Recruiters
Several important voices have argued for arming military recruiters in the wake of the recent shootings in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Giving them a chance to fight back against an active shooter may be a sound proposition, but practicalities of military recruiting suggest a patient and thoughtful policy review.
Jul 31, 2015 The Hill
RAND Experts Discuss U.S. Strategy on ISIS
President Obama outlined a strategy last week to deal with the threat posed by the terrorist group known as ISIS. RAND experts discuss the speech and the follow-up efforts so far.
Sep 15, 2014
A Long-Term Strategy for a Democratic Iraq
Unfortunately, no strategic option for a unified, democratic Iraq has a good chance of success. But any well-considered option that doesn't involve ineffective killing or risking U.S. lives is preferable to simply allowing Iraq to disintegrate and feed broader regional instability.
Jun 30, 2014 War on the Rocks
Iraq Picture May Not Be as Bleak as It Seems
Over the past month, al Qaeda affiliated Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has made a concerted effort to seize the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. The attacks have received a lot of attention, but ISIS does not represent a majority of Iraqi Sunni in Anbar. Many Sunni Anbari leaders continue to reject al Qaeda.
Jan 31, 2014 CNN
A Smarter Way to Stop Syria WMD Attacks
President Obama made a strong case that the U.S. should take the lead in punishing the Syrian regime for its use of chemical weapons and actively enforce the near-global ban on these weapons. Now, the possibility of a diplomatic solution to this problem offers an opportunity to improve the request for the authorization of force currently before Congress.
Sep 19, 2013 CNN
The Deeply Mixed Results of the Iraq War
Ten years after the United States and its allies invaded Iraq, it seems appropriate to ask a bottom-line question: Did the U.S. succeed? The U.S. came very close to losing the Iraq war of 2003-2011, writes Ben Connable.
Mar 21, 2013 U.S. News & World Report

Publications

Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations
Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.
May 27, 2020
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios
Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.
May 27, 2020
Report
Weighing U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq: Strategic Risks and Recommendations
Supporting a stable and friendly Iraq is in the long-term interest of the United States, and this requires maintaining a small force of military advisers to help train and develop Iraqi military capabilities so that Iraq can defend itself.
May 19, 2020
Report
An Enduring American Commitment in Iraq: Shaping a Long-Term Strategy with Iraqi Army Partners
The author of this Perspective argues that the United States should make a full and enduring commitment to Iraq by providing robust, long-term assistance to the Iraqi Army.
Apr 14, 2020
Report
Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition
Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's use of hostile measures is critical to containing their consequences for both target countries and Western alliances and in both the gray zone short of war and conventional warfare.
Jan 7, 2020
Research Brief
Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War
This brief argues for the importance of improving our understanding of what influences will to fight, and it describes two models for doing so: one for analyzing a military unit's will to fight, and one for analyzing a nation's will to fight.
Sep 13, 2019
Report
National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't
In this report, RAND researchers propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that shape a national government's decision to continue or end military and other operations during a conflict (i.e., national will to fight).
Sep 20, 2018
Report
Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units
This report defines and describes will to fight and provides a model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale. It also provides a theoretical basis for adding will to fight to military war gaming.
Sep 20, 2018
Report
Sectarianism in the Middle East: Implications for the United States
Many view unrest in the Middle East in the context of religious sectarianism, focusing on the Sunni-Shi'a split. The authors analyze sectarianism in the region and suggest a different interpretation of both identity and the nature of regional unrest.
Aug 30, 2018
Report
Comprehensive Deterrence Forum: Proceedings and Commissioned Papers
On October 30, 2015, U.S. Army Special Operations Command facilitated a forum to explore the concept of comprehensive deterrence. Part I of this report delivers a summary of the forum proceedings, and Part II includes papers examining the concept.
Jun 7, 2018
Report
Russian Strategy in the Middle East
This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East.
Aug 7, 2017
Report
Implications of the Security Cooperation Office Transition in Afghanistan for Special Operations Forces: An Abbreviated Report of the Study's Primary Findings
Presents findings from six historical case studies in which the mission of special operations forces in each of the six countries transitioned over time to include some level of inclusion in the U.S. embassy's Security Cooperation Office.
Aug 1, 2017
Multimedia
The Evolving Terrorist Threat: Implications for Global Security
These video conference proceedings present panel discussions from a daylong conference on the evolving terrorist threat, which took place on June 27, 2017, in the Washington office of the RAND Corporation.
Jul 12, 2017
Report
Beating the Islamic State: Selecting a New Strategy for Iraq and Syria
This report assesses the current U.S.-led strategy to defeat the Islamic State and examines three options for a new strategy. It recommends a long-term strategy to address root causes.
May 8, 2017
Report
Rolling Back the Islamic State
This report assesses the threat the Islamic State poses to the United States and examines strategies to counter the group.
Apr 20, 2017
Report
Knowing the Enemy: Understanding the Islamic State and Principles for Defeating It
RAND researchers outline general principles that U.S. policymakers must consider when conceiving and weighing appropriate strategies to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
Mar 21, 2017
Draft
Redesigning Strategy for Irregular War: Improving Strategic Design for Planners and Policymakers to Help Defeat Groups Like the Islamic State
Argues that selection of strategy should derive immediately from a policymaker's broader vision for the world and then a region, and only then to defeat a specific group like the Islamic State.
Feb 21, 2017
Report
Investing in the Fight: Assessing the Use of the Commander's Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan
This report examines the use of the Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) in Afghanistan. It explores the effectiveness of CERP in supporting tactical operations in Afghanistan during the counterinsurgency-focused 2010--2013 time frame.
Oct 13, 2016
Report
Stretching and Exploiting Thresholds for High-Order War: How Russia, China, and Iran Are Eroding American Influence Using Time-Tested Measures Short of War
Russia, China, and Iran use measures short of war to exploit and stretch U.S. thresholds for war to further their strategic ends. This report describes those measures, how nation-states use them, and why U.S. notions of thresholds might be outdated.
May 31, 2016
Report
From Negative to Positive Stability: How the Syrian Refugee Crisis Can Improve Jordan's Outlook
This report's analytic forecasts should help the United States determine how to improve its support to Jordan as it faces the Syrian refugee crisis.
Nov 30, 2015
Testimony
Defeating the Islamic State in Iraq
Testimony presented before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on September 17, 2014.
Sep 17, 2014
Report
Initial Thoughts on the Impact of the Iraq War on U.S. National Security Structures
This paper surveys the overall impact of the Iraq War on U.S. national security structures by examining the major changes the war wrought in the intellectual and institutional underpinnings of U.S. security and defense policy.
Jun 5, 2014
Report
Modeling, Simulation, and Operations Analysis in Afghanistan and Iraq: Operational Vignettes, Lessons Learned, and a Survey of Selected Efforts
RAND conducted an examination of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation support to decisionmaking in Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom to illustrate how these tools can support decisionmaking in irregular warfare.
Feb 10, 2014
Research Brief
The Utility of Modeling and Analysis in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars
RAND examined the utility of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation for supporting decisionmaking in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare, with the focus on Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Feb 10, 2014
Report
Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of United States Forces-Iraq
This book looks at the planning and execution of the U.S. military's exit from Iraq and the transition of responsibilities to the Iraqi government, U.S. embassy, Office of Security Cooperation, USCENTCOM, and other U.S. departments and agencies.
Nov 5, 2013
Research Brief
Smooth Transitions? Lessons Learned from Transferring U.S. Military Responsibilities to Civilian Authorities in Iraq
This brief outlines policy and planning lessons that have been encapsulated in a study of the U.S. military's transition out of Iraq at the end of 2011 and the handover of property and responsibilities to Embassy Baghdad and the government of Iraq.
Nov 5, 2013
Draft
Leveraging Development Aid to Address Root Causes in Counterinsurgency: Balancing Theory and Practice in "Hold" and "Build"
Explores the application of aid money and resources by both military and civilian officials in the hold and build stages of western counterinsurgency doctrine.
Mar 25, 2013
Report
Military Intelligence Fusion for Complex Operations: A New Paradigm
This paper proposes a paradigm shift in how military intelligence is fused. The concept, behavioral intelligence analysis, provides a more complete picture of the complex counterinsurgency environment.
Jul 23, 2012
Report
Embracing the Fog of War: Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency
The counterinsurgency environment poses severe challenges for centralized, quantitative campaign assessment. An examination of the approach used through early 2011 reveals weaknesses and gaps and proposes an alternative, bottom-up methodology.
Apr 13, 2012
Research Brief
Improving Counterinsurgency Campaign Assessment: The Importance of Transparency in the Fog of War
Current processes used by the U.S. military do not provide accurate assessments of counterinsurgency campaigns. A new process that adds transparency and context to assessments would make them more credible and useful at all levels of decisionmaking.
Apr 13, 2012
Report
Assessing Freedom of Movement for Counterinsurgency Campaigns
This report examines how a military staff might assess freedom of movement as a strategic and tactical indicator in counterinsurgency, and specifically in Afghanistan.
Jan 12, 2012
Report
How Insurgencies End
This book tests conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end using 89 case studies. Findings provide insight on tactics and strategy to policymakers and analysts, concluding that there are no counterinsurgency shortcuts.
Apr 8, 2010

Multimedia

03:27
The Evolving Terrorist Threat: Conference Highlights
Jun 27, 2017
44:44
Questioning Fundamental Assumptions: Is the United States Succeeding Against ISIS?
Jun 27, 2017
1:01:44
Syrian Refugees: Humanitarian and Security Perspectives
Feb 25, 2016
41:03
RAND Experts Discuss President Obama's Speech Announcing ISIS Strategy
Sep 11, 2014