Jordan R. Fischbach

How Should Water Professionals Invest in Resilience?

Water professionals can think about building resilience as a process of embracing and managing future uncertainty. Rather than trying to predict which problem to plan for, researchers help planners consider a wide range of potential scenarios.

Getting the Lead Out of Pittsburgh's Water

Without an aggressive long-term strategy for replacing service lines, and collaboration among the water authority, public officials, and residents, lead in Pittsburgh's water will persist.

The Big Bet: Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement

America's formal withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement could have far-reaching consequences for U.S. global leadership on many issues, not just on efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

COP21: Ambition and Momentum

Negotiators in Paris achieved a historic breakthrough by adopting a fundamentally different, and likely more effective, institutional framework to address climate change. It builds on two concepts missing from past attempts to forge a global treaty: voluntary participation and adaptive policymaking.

Future of Coastal Flooding

President Obama's executive order that directs federal agencies to plan and build for higher flood levels as they construct new projects in flood-prone regions will affect hundreds of billions of dollars of future public works projects. In an ideal world, planners would estimate the benefits and costs for each project, taking into account everything from the details of the local landscape to the potential for adaptive responses over time.

New Colorado River Basin Study Examines Tremendous Challenges of the Coming 50 Years

Growing water needs combined with uncertain but possibly deteriorating future hydrologic conditions could stress the Colorado River system in the coming 50 years.

What Louisiana Can Teach New York and New Jersey

The massive damage and disruption caused by “Super Storm” Sandy has created a rare moment when New York City, New Jersey and surrounding areas are singularly focused on the infrastructure they need in a changing environment – not just the infrastructure they already have thanks to the vision and investments of past generations.

In Wake of Hurricane Sandy, Look to Louisiana for Lessons

Just as public agencies across the country conducted terrorism risk assessments in the wake of 9/11, a comprehensive infrastructure assessment may be in order to understand natural hazard risks and the potential exacerbating effects of climate change, write Gary Cecchine, David Groves, and Jordan Fischbach.

Has the Gulf Coast Learned Katrina's Lessons in Time for Isaac?

Seven years after Hurricane Katrina, it's clear that New Orleans and other cities along the Gulf Coast are applying what they learned then in preparation for Hurricane Isaac, write Gary Cecchine and Jordan R. Fischbach.

Journal Article

Rhodium-SWMM: An Open-Source Tool for Green Infrastructure Placement Under Deep Uncertainty

To help mainstream MORDM applications in GI planning, we developed an open-source Python library: Rhodium-SWMM. Rhodium-SWMM connects the USEPA's Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) to Rhodium, a Python library for MORDM.

Journal Article

Nonstructural Risk Reduction Evaluation Results: Attachment E3

Nonstructural project results for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan and summarizes the mitigation measures derived from the technical analysis conducted using the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST)

The Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST) is an interactive, searchable database of empirical, statistical, and conceptual models relevant to water- and climate-related planning and decisionmaking in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and beyond.

Report

The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Mitigation Grant Program: Incorporating Hazard Risk and Social Equity into Decisionmaking Processes

The federal Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program can help develop community resilience through mitigation activities that emphasize equity goals alongside reduction of risk to physical assets, as described in this report.

Tool

Vulnerability, Inequity, and COVID-19: A Portrait of the Pandemic in Allegheny County: Tracking Evolving Disparities in Testing, Cases, Hospitalizations, Deaths, and the Ability to Practice Physical Distancing

RAND researchers, the Black Equity Coalition, and Surgo Ventures created an interactive online tool to consider disparities and community vulnerability to COVID-19 in Allegheny County.

Tool

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2021

This climate summary aims to inform Mid-Atlantic policymakers and practitioners about spring 2021, regional climate trends, and the upcoming summer season. A tool shows flooding in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania under historic and future climate.

Tool

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2020–2021

This climate summary aims to inform Mid-Atlantic policymakers and practitioners about winter 2020–2021 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming spring season. A tool shows historic snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic from 1981 to 2019.

Tool

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Fall 2020

This climate summary aims to inform Mid-Atlantic policymakers and practitioners about fall 2020 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming winter season. A tool shows historic tropical cyclone tracks in the Mid-Atlantic from 1980 to 2020.

Research Brief

How Can Green Infrastructure Help to Manage Rainfall in an Urban Watershed?

This brief describes a proposed system of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed, evaluates its potential benefits and costs, and presents recommendations to improve urban stormwater management.

Report

Managing Heavy Rainfall with Green Infrastructure: An Evaluation in Pittsburgh's Negley Run Watershed

RAND researchers estimate the potential benefits and costs of a green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) system in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed, evaluate a series of GSI investments, and make recommendations to improve urban stormwater management.

Report

After Hurricane Maria: Predisaster Conditions, Hurricane Damage, and Recovery Needs in Puerto Rico

Following the 2017 hurricane season, the Federal Emergency Management Agency requested a review of Puerto Rico's hurricane damage and recovery needs. This report summarizes the resulting cross-sector analysis of history, conditions, and needs.

Tool

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Summer 2020

This climate summary aims to inform Mid-Atlantic policymakers and practitioners about summer 2020 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming fall season. A tool shows historic and projected changes in warm daily minimum temperatures.

Tool

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2020

This climate summary aims to inform Mid-Atlantic policymakers and practitioners about spring 2020 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming summer season. A tool shows historic and projected changes in the timing of spring temperatures.

Report

Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program

The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Watershed Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2019-2020

This web-based tool aims to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders on Winter 2019-2020 climate, as well as projected future climate trends. An interactive tool shows percentage change in freeze-thaw days.

Journal Article

Climate-Resilient Planning for Urban Stormwater and Wastewater Utilities: Workshop Proceedings

This document summarizes the Climate-Resilient Planning for Urban Stormwater and Wastewater Utilities Workshop, held July 16–17, 2019 at the Newtown Creek Wastewater Resource Recovery Facility in Brooklyn, NY.

Journal Article

Modeling the Uncertainty of Potential Impacts on Robust Stormwater Management from Neighborhood-Scale Impervious Cover Change: A Case Study of Population-Based Scenarios in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

This work presents a method for applying high-spatial resolution population-based scenarios to pre-existing stormwater models. We explore the impact of two long-term population growth scenarios for the Pittsburgh region.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Watershed Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Fall 2019

This climate summary informs Chesapeake Bay stakeholders on Fall 2019's climate and weather as well as projected climate trends. Hurricane damage in the Mid-Atlantic and changes in hurricane frequency and intensity are shown in interactive figures.

Report

Air Force Capability Development Planning: Analytical Methods to Support Investment Decisions

RAND Project AIR FORCE examines analytical methods for Air Force capability development planning under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Journal Article

Flood Damage Reduction Benefits and Costs in Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan

This article builds on the modeling analysis conducted for Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan. We use the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model to project coastal flood damage over time under different scenarios and with the master plan implemented.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Watershed Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Summer 2019

This web-based tool aims to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders on Summer 2019 climate, as well as projected future climate trends. Analysis of extreme heat data are shown on interactive figures.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2019: Seasonal Precipitation Analysis

This web-based tool aims to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders on Spring 2019 climate, as well as historical and projected future climate trends. Analysis of seasonal precipitation data are shown.

Journal Article

Robust Decision Making (RDM): Application to Water Planning and Climate Policy

This chapter presents two case studies that demonstrate how DMDU methods, in particular Robust Decision Making (RDM) (see Chap. 2), can help develop robust long-term strategies.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2018-2019: Seasonal Precipitation Analysis

This web-based tool aims to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders on historical and projected future climate trends. Analysis of seasonal precipitation data are displayed via interactive maps.

Tool

Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook for 2018: Extreme Precipitation Analysis

This web-based tool aims to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders on historical and projected future climate trends. Analysis of seasonal and extreme precipitation data are displayed via interactive maps.

Report

The Public Health Impacts of Gaza's Water Crisis: Analysis and Policy Options

Gaza suffers a shortage of potable water and a lack of wastewater sanitation. The authors relate Gaza's water problems to its energy challenges, examine the public health implications of the crisis, and recommend steps to avert a regional disaster.

Report

Building Resilience in an Urban Coastal Environment: Integrated, Science-Based Planning in Jamaica Bay, New York

This project considered baywide concepts that could reduce future flood risk exposure in Jamaica Bay while also improving water quality, restoring habitat in and around the bay, and more generally improving resilience to extreme weather events.

Journal Article

Gaza's Water and Sanitation Crisis: The Implications for Public Health

Gaza's dire water, sanitation, and electricity challenges are complex and deeply intertwined. Even so, they could be addressed in the long term; current barriers to a policy solution are largely political.

Journal Article

Pittsburgh Equity Indicators: A Baseline Measurement for Enhancing Equity in Pittsburgh

The 2018 Pittsburgh Equity Indicators report in enables the comparison of two years of data to measure change in disparities. The report includes information on equality scores for 2017 and 2018, as well as "change scores" between years.

Report

Reducing Coastal Flood Risk with a Lake Pontchartrain Barrier

This report describes the results of an evaluation of the potential benefits for coastal Louisiana from a barrier across the mouth of Lake Pontchartrain. It also includes new estimates of the potential induced economic damage.

Commentary

Informing Pittsburgh's Options to Address Lead in Water

This Perspective reviews the history and recent developments related to the use of lead in Pittsburgh's water system and the costs, regulatory barriers, and feasibility of the policy options for remediation under consideration by decisionmakers.

Journal Article

Testing the Scenario Hypothesis: An Experimental Comparison of Scenarios and Forecasts for Decision Support in a Complex Decision Environment

Decision support tools are known to influence and facilitate decisionmaking through the thoughtful construction of the decision environment. However, little research has empirically evaluated the effects of using scenarios and forecasts.

Report

Robust Stormwater Management in the Pittsburgh Region: A Pilot Study

This report provides an independent study of how the stormwater problem in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania metropolitan region could grow with future change, and discusses potential long-term solutions using new analytical approaches developed by RAND.

Journal Article

Pittsburgh Equity Indicators: A Baseline Measurement for Enhancing Equity in Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Equity Indicators assess annual progress toward equitable opportunities and outcomes for Pittsburghers of all races, genders, and incomes. The 2017 report summarizes baseline equality scores, which measure disparities in Pittsburgh.

Report

Characterizing National Exposures to Infrastructure from Natural Disasters: Data and Methods Documentation

This report serves as the technical documentation and reference document for the data, methods, and analytic approach used in the analysis of national exposures to infrastructure from natural disasters.

Report

Current and Future Exposure of Infrastructure in the United States to Natural Hazards

This report describes insights about exposures from natural hazards now and in the future, as well as gaps in data that, if filled, could improve the nation's ability to assess infrastructure risk and improve infrastructure resilience.

Report

Analysis to Support Louisiana's Flood Risk and Resilience Program and Application to the National Disaster Resilience Competition

RAND helped Louisiana develop an application to the Natural Disaster Resilience Competition. RAND performed a quantitative analysis of flood risk reduction under different amounts of flood mitigation investment in three Louisiana parishes.

Journal Article

Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

This study examines methods for estimating storm surges and flood statistics.

Journal Article

Computational Modeling of the Jamaica Bay System

For Jamaica Bay, and other coastal areas being studied for resilience capacity, we need not only models that are published and in the public domain, but mechanisms to generate scenarios that address resilience from various perspectives.

Journal Article

Current and Future Flood Risk in Greater New Orleans

This report presents estimates of flood risk in New Orleans and quantifies the accomplishments of the post-Katrina efforts to improve coastal defenses.

Report

Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program

Climate change may affect water quality implementation plans, but uncertainty complicates any appropriate response. This study explores how Robust Decision Making (RDM) can help make water quality plans more resilient to climate and other changes.

Report

Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks: A Water Utility Framework

RAND researchers and collaborators present a comprehensive approach for water utilities to assess climate risks to their systems and evaluate adaptation strategies.

Journal Article

Developing Key Indicators for Adaptive Water Planning

The MWD of SoCal addresses the challenges of hard-to-predict changes in future demand, climate, supply options, budgetary constraints, etc. Plans should be flexible and robust, designed to meet agency goals over a wide range of future conditions.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 2014

Feature stories discuss the implications of climate change for the Colorado River Basin and the Sierra Nevada, the burdens borne by military caregivers, the drawbacks of joint aircraft programs, and growing inequalities across the European Union.

Research Brief

Addressing Coastal Vulnerabilities Through Comprehensive Planning: How RAND Supported the Development of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan

The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

Report

Strengthening Coastal Planning: How Coastal Regions Could Benefit from Louisiana's Planning and Analysis Framework

Report describes RAND contributions to Louisiana's Coastal Master Plan for policymakers in other coastal regions. It highlights the value of a solid technical foundation to support decisionmaking on strategies to protect and restore coastal regions.

Research Brief

Adapting to a Changing Colorado River: An Interactive Research Brief

Web page summarizing the Colorado River Basin Study, which evaluated the river system's resiliency and compared resource management options.

Report

Adapting to a Changing Colorado River: Making Future Water Deliveries More Reliable Through Robust Management Strategies

The Colorado River Basin Study evaluated the river system's resiliency and compared resource management options. This report describes RAND's contributions, focusing on methodologies used to identify vulnerabilities and compare portfolios of options.

Journal Article

Estimating Surge-Based Flood Risk with the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment Model

Flood depths and direct economic damage from a wide range of simulated storm events are aggregated to produce a statistical summary of coastal risk under different assumptions about future conditions.

Draft

Is it Ethical to Use a Single Probability Density Function?

Describes Robust Decision Making, one of a new class of methods for quantitative analysis that addresses both quantitative analysis and ethical reasoning.

Research Brief

Making Good Decisions Without Predictions: Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning. But with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.

Research Brief

Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities

The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

Research Brief

CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning

The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

Report

Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment Model: Technical Description and 2012 Coastal Master Plan Analysis Results

Describes a model developed by RAND to estimate flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

Report

A Review of the Army's Modular Force Structure

In 2003, the U.S. Army moved from a division-based to a brigade-centric modular force structure. Congress requested a study of the process and outcomes of the initiative to assess the impact on the Army's capabilities in a range of operations.

Report

Army Network-Enabled Operations: Expectations, Performance, and Opportunities for Future Improvements

The Army's staking much of its future battlefield success on the belief that units linked together with appropriate networks can dominate their adversaries by learning enemy locations and attacking with small arms fire and precision-guided munitions.

Research Brief

Reducing Future Flood Damage in New Orleans Through Home Elevation and Land Use Changes

Describes how nonstructural measures -- such as incentives for home elevation, incentives for relocation to lower-risk areas, and restrictions on the use of floodplain land -- can make New Orleans less vulnerable to storm surge.

Dissertation

Managing New Orleans Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation

Considers proposals to augment the existing flood-damage protection system in New Orleans with ''nonstructural'' risk mitigation programs focused on single-family homes.

Research Brief

A New Tool Can Help Commercial-Building Owners Make Better Water-Efficiency Decisions

This fact sheet describes a case study of commercial-building water efficiency and the Building Water Efficiency Analysis Model used to conduct it. The model allows convenient assessment of potential value of water-efficiency investments.

Report

Evaluating the Benefits and Costs of Increased Water-Use Efficiency in Commercial Buildings

This report presents an analytical framework and describes a spreadsheet-based tool to help commercial building owners make reasoned judgments about various water-efficiency investment options.

Report

A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future

This monograph proposes development of a tool -- an adaptation of a RAND tool called Assumption-Based Planning -- to help Army program and budget personnel maintain proper alignment between strategic guidance and the Army acquisition program and budget.