Timothy R. Gulden

Target Vaccine to 'High-Contact' People

Actively seeking out people with lots of contacts for vaccination could bring the epidemic under control much more quickly than vaccinating people at random. Vaccinating just 15% of the population would be enough to crush the epidemic—so long as it was the right 15%.

Los Angeles River Revitalization: Taking Inspiration from Near and Far

Currently a predominantly concrete channel running through the city, the Los Angeles River has great potential to revitalize Los Angeles's water resources, landscape, and identity. Creating a new vision for the river presents a complex challenge for policymakers, engineers, and urban planners.

Tool

Climate Adaptation Strategies for National Critical Functions

This tool presents climate adaptation strategies for a set of National Critical Functions (NCFs) that are capable of mitigating the risks posed by climate change.

Commentary

The Metaverse and Homeland Security: Opportunities and Risks of Persistent Virtual Environments

This Perspective provides an initial review of the metaverse concept and its relevance to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The authors map department objectives to key metaverse characteristics and identify areas for proactive efforts.

Report

Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change

Researchers developed a framework to assess and manage the risk that climate change poses to National Critical Functions, then used the framework to assess the most-vulnerable ones. This report details the risk assessment portions of the framework.

Draft

Addressing Emerging Technology Adoption in Food Production through Digital Games

Examines how blockchain, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence with machine learning, and satellite imaging are being or could be implemented to decrease uncertainty and mitigate risks to support agricultural production and distribution.

Journal Article

Modelling the Impact of Social Distancing and Targeted Vaccination on the Spread of COVID-19 Through a Real City-Scale Contact Network

We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Report

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume II, Technical Details for a Complex Adaptive Systems Lens

This is a technical report that supports a companion report, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges.

Report

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges

This report is the first in a two-part series that examines how complex adaptive systems thinking can be applied to great-power competition and warfare to aid in understanding how complexity might be exploited to U.S. advantage.

Report

From Hermit Kingdom to Open for Business: Developing a Blueprint for North Korea's Economic Development

The authors describe a blueprint for economic development in North Korea using foreign investment as an organizational framework.

Commentary

Protecting the Most Vulnerable by Vaccinating the Most Active

In this Perspective, the authors used a network model to illustrate five different vaccination strategies for coronavirus disease 2019, showing that vaccinating the most-active people might be the best way to protect the vulnerable in the pandemic.

Report

Modeling Rapidly Composable, Heterogeneous, and Fractionated Forces: Findings on Mosaic Warfare from an Agent-Based Model

Mosaic warfare is named for the idea of creating a complex image from small pieces. This report studies Mosaic warfare and explores complexity of platforms, complexity of targets, and relative density of platforms and targets.

Report

Main Command Post-Operational Detachments (MCP-ODs) and Division Headquarters Readiness

Researchers identify the effects of Focus Area Review Group II headquarters design and its new unit type -- the Main Command Post--Operational Detachment -- on division headquarters readiness.

Report

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Research Brief

What's the Buzz? The Drones Are Here

This brief examines the developing technology for using drones to deliver packages and attempts to identify the societal impacts, including potential effects on aerial congestion, noise, privacy, and other outcomes.

Report

The Energy Implications of Drones for Package Delivery: A Geographic Information System Comparison

In this report, we use a geographic information system analysis to compare truck versus delivery drone energy use.

Report

Cost–Benefit Analysis of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations

New safety standards for oil and gas refineries in California might reduce refinery incidents, providing benefits to the public and savings to California consumers. To be worth the cost, the rules would have to produce modest improvements in safety.

Report

Resources and Capabilities of the Department of Veterans Affairs to Provide Timely and Accessible Care to Veterans

The Department of Veterans Affairs health care system, with broad resources and capabilities, provides timely and high-quality care to most, but not all, patients. Meeting veterans' needs over the next five years will require additional capacity.