Brian Michael Jenkins

Overview

Commentary

• 
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

  The End of the U.S. COVID-19 Public Health Emergency: Q&A with RAND Experts

  We asked RAND experts to reflect on the past three years: What were the effects on the United States and around the world, what has changed, what are the most important takeaways, what was done right, and what was done wrong? At the same time, they looked ahead to what might be done to mitigate the health and geopolitical impacts of future pandemics.

  May 8, 2023

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Russia

  Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater

  Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. How do we interpret Putin's statements? While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda.

  Apr 17, 2023

  The Hill

• 
  Mexico

  Should Mexico's Drug Cartels Be Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations?

  While the outcry over the kidnapping and murder of U.S. citizens by members of the Gulf Cartel in Mexico is understandable, stridency should not preclude strategic assessment. America's problem with drug trafficking is not the lack of statutes, but the magnitude of the problem.

  Mar 22, 2023

  The Hill

• 
  Russia

  What Will Putin Do Next?

  Vladimir Putin faces no elections, no party or state institutions that threaten his rule, no domestic political opposition. He is not moved by humanitarian crises or overly concerned about international condemnation. The longer the war drags on, the more risks Putin might be willing to take to meet his objectives. What might he do next?

  Mar 9, 2023

  The Hill

• 
  Ukraine

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The End and Beyond

  We don't know yet know how the war in Ukraine may end. Despite heavy casualties, neither side is visibly falling apart or appears ready to back down. While no scenario can be excluded, the unequal strategic situation pushes future war scenarios toward variations of a stalemate.

  Mar 8, 2023

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Russia

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

  Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

  Mar 7, 2023

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Turkey

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

  Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

  Mar 6, 2023

  The RAND Blog

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  North Atlantic Treaty Organization

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine: NATO's Future

  Security issues have again become paramount among NATO members, making the alliance far more relevant. But NATO's southeastern flank is soft and the war in Ukraine has exposed its fault lines.

  Mar 2, 2023

  The RAND Bllog

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  Russia

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine: A Bleak Outlook for Russia

  Whatever may happen in Ukraine or in Russia, things will never be the same. A Russian failure in Ukraine could lead to escalation and a world-changing wider war, or it could lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make for a very different world.

  Feb 28, 2023

  The RAND Blog

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  Military Strategy

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation

  If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?

  Feb 27, 2023

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Ukraine

  Consequences of the War in Ukraine

  One year ago, Russian ground forces, following a lengthy military buildup, invaded Ukraine. Today, the war continues, with no clear end in sight. How does this end?

  Feb 24, 2023

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Russia

  The Three Vladimir Putins

  What happens next in the war in Ukraine depends almost exclusively on the mindset, will, and decisions of Vladimir Putin. The various descriptions of Putin suggest three different characters: strongman Putin, messianic Putin, and rational Putin. We may take more comfort in the last. We probably shouldn't.

  Feb 22, 2023

  The Hill

• 
  Labor Markets

  How COVID-19 Transformed the Jobs Market

  The COVID-19 pandemic initially devastated the U.S. economy. It also exposed and exacerbated existing inequities in society. But in as yet unpredictable ways, it may have accelerated profound changes in how labor works today.

  Dec 1, 2022

  The Hill

• 
  Politics and Government

  COVID-19's Biggest Casualty May Be Governability

  Pandemics fuel pre-existing prejudices, deepen social divisions, and increase political tensions. As the United States heads into the midterm elections, the parties should be prepared to face headwinds whichever side emerges with control of Congress. COVID-19's biggest political casualty might be governability.

  Oct 11, 2022

  NBC News THINK

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  Global Climate Change

  Is Our Response to the Pandemic a Preview of How We May Deal with Climate Change?

  Do Americans have the stomach for tough times, hard work, and sacrifice? Or will many of the same problems experienced in responding to COVID-19 arise as Americans confront the challenge of climate change?

  Sep 26, 2022

  The Daily Beast

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  Pandemic

  Societal Long COVID Here to Stay, Says Book: 'Normality Will Not Return'

  Brian Michael Jenkins takes a look at past plagues—like the Black Death and the 1918 pandemic—to try to understand the future. In this adaptation from his book, Jenkins discusses how post-pandemic life will be marked by more than just long-lasting health concerns.

  Sep 14, 2022

  Newsweek

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  Military Mobilization

  The Will to Fight, Lessons from Ukraine

  In Ukraine, ferocious defense has stalled the invaders. Even if Kyiv falls, continued resistance seems likely. Ukraine has reminded the world that national unity in the face of existential threats, self-reliance strengthened by collective defense, and courage coupled with compassion can help underdog populations resist the mightiest military forces.

  Mar 29, 2022

  RealClearWorld

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  Politics and Government

  Complex Calculations Shape Pakistan-TTP Negotiations

  Pakistan sees the Taliban as a facilitator of discussions with the TTP, as an ally in persuading the TTP to negotiate, and as a guarantor of whatever agreement is reached. And given the Taliban's diplomatic isolation and desperate economic situation, Pakistan can in return assist Afghanistan's new rulers in gaining acceptance and aid.

  Dec 20, 2021

  The Express Tribune

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  Violent Extremism

  Politicians Face Violence and Threats from Voters—and Each Other. Are We Nearing a Civil War?

  Does America's increasingly uncivil behavior mean we are heading toward civil war? The historical record seems to indicate that the country has a high tolerance for violence without breaking apart. But the threat of civil wars cannot be dismissed.

  Nov 15, 2021

  NBC News Think

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  Pakistan

  Negotiating with TTP—A Different Perspective

  America's withdrawal and the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan could be a primary force in shaping the trajectory of the continuing armed struggle with Pakistan's Taliban. It may be time for Islamabad to consider whether to renew efforts aimed at reaching a political settlement.

  Oct 27, 2021

  The Express Tribune

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  Domestic Terrorism

  Countering Domestic Terrorism May Require Rethinking U.S. Intelligence Strategy

  The United States is deeply divided, its political system polarized. Getting counterterrorism wrong could make the situation worse. The challenge is to isolate and contain violent extremists without turning them into political martyrs or half the country into enemies of the state.

  Oct 5, 2021

  The Hill

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  Violent Extremism

  Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process

  The righteous wrath of those who view January 6 as an insurrection and believe we need uncompromising prosecution is understandable. But is it strategic thinking? History has shown that prosecutions based on less severe and politically-fraught charges have a greater chance of resulting in the convictions needed to stop this behavior.

  May 14, 2021

  NBC News THINK

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  Violent Extremism

  Don't Muddy the Objectives on Fighting Domestic Extremism

  The U.S. Capitol attack on January 6 has fueled momentum for new approaches and laws to counter attacks by domestic violent extremists. It will be crucial for policymakers to reckon with what new laws and law enforcement can achieve, and what they can get wrong.

  Apr 7, 2021

  The Hill

• 
  Military Force Deployment

  Getting Out of Forever Wars: What Are Biden's Options in Afghanistan?

  U.S. counterterrorism strategy has long been driven by the assumption that security at home depends on fighting terrorists abroad. How will that square with the president's pledge to end forever wars? Is it possible to get out of warfighting without shutting down vital counterterrorist operations?

  Mar 12, 2021

  Military Times

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  National Security Legislation

  Five Reasons to Be Wary of a New Domestic Terrorism Law

  Momentum is building in Congress for legislation to deal with domestic terrorism. Here are five purely pragmatic reasons to be wary of addressing domestic terrorism with a new law.

  Feb 24, 2021

  The Hill

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  Domestic Terrorism

  Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists

  The beliefs driving today's domestic extremists are deeply rooted in American history and society. For this and several other reasons, shutting them down will prove far more difficult than combating homegrown jihadists.

  Feb 1, 2021

  The Hill

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  Domestic Terrorism

  How Threats Against Lawmakers Could Distort the Political Landscape for Years

  The political environment is changing in a way that goes beyond immediate security concerns. The prevalence of threats and violence as a feature of American politics will ripple throughout the political system. Our politics could be distorted by the vicious atmosphere for years.

  Jan 25, 2021

  NBC News THINK

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  Domestic Terrorism

  Why We Need a January 6 Commission to Investigate the Attack on the Capitol

  The history of politically charged violence in and against the United States can be read in the reports of its national commissions. The takeover of the U.S. Capitol on January 6 demands such an inquiry.

  Jan 20, 2021

  Los Angeles Times

• 
  Domestic Terrorism

  The Battle of Capitol Hill

  The deadly mob assault on the U.S. Capitol Building was a predictable possibility. Democracy held, but security failed, spectacularly. We need to be better prepared for future acts of political violence.

  Jan 11, 2021

  The Hill

• 
  Domestic Terrorism

  Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections

  The COVID-19 pandemic has roiled the elections. The United States is deeply divided and the political system is polarized. Under these fraught circumstances, even a minor event can have far-reaching repercussions. What are the prospects for domestic terrorism in the context of U.S. elections?

  Oct 7, 2020

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Domestic Terrorism

  The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

  To keep the jihad going after 9/11, al Qaeda exhorted homegrown terrorists to take up arms in the United States. ISIS later made similar appeals. These calls to arms yielded some plots and a few attacks, but overall, the American jihad was a failure.

  Sep 23, 2020

  The Hill

• 
  Political Reform Movements

  Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicals and Violence?

  The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further cleaved an already deeply divided society. The conditions facing the United States today are reminiscent of those that gave rise to the radicalism of the 1970s and could once again lead to political violence, including terrorism.

  Aug 17, 2020

  NBC News THINK

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers

  Today's self-selecting solo terrorists answer only to their god, whether seeking to destroy all government, pursuing racial separation or genocidal goals, expressing sexual dissatisfaction, or simply wanting to leave their mark. Military operations are irrelevant. This is a deeper societal problem.

  Jul 20, 2020

  Fox News Channel

• 
  Information Operations

  Exposing Russian Information Operations Does Not Violate the First Amendment

  Russia's hostile information operations are continuous and extend to a broad range of domestic issues. First Amendment concerns are important, but they do not protect hostile information campaigns by foreign actors, nor are they a legal excuse for inaction by the United States.

  May 11, 2020

  The Hill

• 
  Iran

  All-Out U.S.-Iran War Is Unlikely. But Low-Level War Expected to Continue

  Iranian retaliation for Soleimani's killing and counter-retaliation by the United States seem likely. But Tehran and Washington have good reasons to inflict limited pain without engaging in a full-scale war.

  Jan 6, 2020

  Fox News Channel

• 
  Terrorism Financing

  A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas

  Fifty years ago, urban guerrillas in Rio de Janeiro kidnapped the American ambassador to Brazil, setting off a worldwide wave of terrorist kidnappings that continues today. Although few of the terrorist groups that engaged in kidnapping over the past half century have survived, seizing hostages funded their operations and earned them notoriety. And for that reason, it will likely remain a mainstay of the terrorist tool kit.

  Sep 25, 2019

  Homeland Security Today

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  Border and Port Security

  Hadrian's Wall Was a Policy Statement; So Is Donald Trump's

  It's not clear if Hadrian's Wall was necessary to prevent Scottish fighters from invading the Roman Empire. Neither is it clear how effective Trump's wall would be at repelling undocumented immigration and smugglers. Hadrian's Wall may have been of symbolic value to those on both sides of it. Trump's could be, too.

  Mar 6, 2019

  United Press International

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Leaving ISIS Detainees in the Desert Doesn't Serve U.S. Interests

  Leaving ISIS detainees in the desert may sound like an apt punishment, but it's dangerous. Repatriation and prosecution could help ensure ISIS volunteers don't scatter to other jihadist fronts.

  Mar 5, 2019

  The Hill

• 

  Terrorists on the Border and Government Secrecy

  Detailed information on how many would-be terrorists may have sought to cross the southern border is being withheld on the grounds that it is sensitive. The refusal of officials to offer a fuller explanation of the numbers illustrates how the continued expansion of secrecy in government is damaging the ability of the public to assess the risk and evaluate the response.

  Feb 13, 2019

  The Hill

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Navigating the Latest Terrorism Trend

  Terrorists are increasingly using vehicles as attack weapons, killing more than 150 people in the last 18 months. If this trend continues, the urban landscape will change as bollards, barricades and barriers, chicanes and checkpoints surround and subdivide public spaces. But do they make us safer?

  Dec 19, 2017

  U.S. News & World Report

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  Domestic Terrorism

  The Origins of America's Jihadists

  American jihadists are made in the United States, not imported. Homegrown terrorists have accounted for most of the jihadist activity in the U.S. since 9/11, with most of those who carried out or plotted terrorist attacks either born in the U.S. or arriving as children.

  Dec 4, 2017

  The Hill

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  Counterterrorism

  Vehicular Terrorism: Weighing the Benefits, and Worth, of Prevention

  The terrorist attack in Barcelona has added urgency to discussions of what can be done to prevent terrorists from using vehicles as weapons. Many potential security measures would be disruptive, costly, and could easily be circumvented by a determined terrorist.

  Sep 5, 2017

  Fox News Channel

• 
  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  The Islamic State's Disposable Army

  To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. The group targets malcontents and the most suggestible, knowing they are desperate to belong to something and willing to die for it.

  Jun 20, 2017

  U.S. News & World Report

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  Counterterrorism

  Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?

  Terrorism has escalated horizontally, not vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks. The trick will be to predict and prevent new plots.

  Jun 19, 2017

  Newsweek

• 
  Syria

  When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?

  The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.

  Jun 16, 2017

  Defense One

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  Violence

  Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?

  The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.

  Jun 7, 2017

  Fortune

• 
  Counterterrorism

  London Bridge Attack: The Latest Example of 'Pure Terror'

  Terrorists can attack anything, anywhere, any time. Preventing all pure terrorism is impossible, but seeking ways to divert vulnerable people from the terror path as Prime Minister May has discussed is a worthy step in that direction.

  Jun 5, 2017

  The Hill

• 
  Chemical Weapons and Warfare

  Why Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons?

  The use of chemical weapons today provokes international condemnation, if not always action. Those who order their deployment risk being charged with war crimes. So why would Syria's President Bashar Assad use them?

  Apr 14, 2017

  U.S. News & World Report

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Taking the 'Terror' Out of Terrorism Requires Outsmarting Fear

  Terrorism aims to create terror. Building an effective counterterror strategy could help society understand how terrorism works, then work together toward a psychologically more resilient and less vulnerable mindset.

  Mar 16, 2017

  United Press International

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  Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

  For U.S., Many Options but No Clear Path in Middle East

  The struggle against jihadist terrorism has a long way to go. All courses of action come with risks, but are not mutually exclusive. The U.S. could escalate the fight, work with state partners in the Middle East, or withdraw from the region.

  Mar 6, 2017

  The Hill

• 
  Domestic Terrorism

  Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home

  It's not unreasonable to seek a review of immigration, and refugee-vetting procedures make sense. But America's jihadist terrorists are not imported from abroad. They are mostly homegrown.

  Feb 10, 2017

  The Hill

• 
  Russia

  Dealing with a Revanchist Russia

  The deployment of additional U.S. forces and other NATO units to Poland, Norway, the Baltics, and other states symbolically reinforces the West's commitment to the alliance. But countering Russia's influence will require a fundamental reformulation of EU and U.S. political strategy.

  Feb 8, 2017

  The National Interest

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  Domestic Terrorism

  When Is a Terrorist Really a Terrorist?

  Countering mass violence demands a distinction between attackers who are truly inspired by jihadism and those with lesser links. The latter includes people whose mental states and violent tendencies preexist their exposure to the ideology.

  Jan 27, 2017

  The Hill

• 
  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  What ISIS Leaves Behind in Mosul Will Reveal a Lot

  The capture of Mosul, Iraq, may produce a potential trove of information about how ISIS organized itself to run a large city. Collecting, analyzing, and disseminating this material will be a major effort, one of the most important as the city is liberated.

  Nov 18, 2016

  The Hill

• 
  Counterinsurgency

  What the Battles of Mosul and Aleppo Tell Us About Their Countries' Futures

  The battle of Mosul is not just about defeating ISIS. It is about restoring Mosul to the multi-ethnic city it once was. The Syrian government's style of warfare in Aleppo, however, accepts that Syria will remain a divided country.

  Nov 14, 2016

  The Hill

• 
  Counterterrorism

  U.S. More Able Than Ever to Combat Terrorism

  Acts of pure terrorism are truly arbitrary and extremely difficult to protect against, but they are rare. Improved domestic counterterrorist efforts have uncovered and interrupted close to 90 percent of jihadist terrorist plots in the U.S. since 9/11.

  Sep 26, 2016

  Boston Herald

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  Counterterrorism

  Fifteen Years on, Where Are We in the 'War on Terror'?

  Much has changed since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Counterterrorism efforts have made progress, and Americans are safer. But it's unclear how much further the fight against terrorism has to go.

  Sep 7, 2016

  CTC Sentinel

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  Counterterrorism

  President Obama's Controversial Legacy as Counterterrorism-in-Chief

  There were no attacks like 9/11 during Obama's eight years in office. But there were plenty of terrorist adversaries. While he will be judged in part for his domestic achievements, Obama's counterterrorism choices are a major part of his legacy.

  Aug 22, 2016

  The Mark News

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  Al Qaida

  A Persistent and Resilient Adversary: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

  The history of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula catalogues every dimension of frustration in combatting terrorism. But is it possible that the United States and its Gulf allies are finally getting the measure of AQAP?

  Aug 22, 2016

  The Cipher Brief

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  Terrorist Organizations

  What's in a Name? The Rebranding of the Nusra Front

  Jabhat al-Nusra, which recently announced that it was severing its affiliation with al Qaeda, is now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. This means less than meets the eye, but it does say something about the local atmosphere in Syria.

  Aug 8, 2016

  The Hill

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  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  Is the Surge in Terrorist Attacks Coincidence or Coordinated Campaign?

  Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed (or ignored) to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried.

  Jul 11, 2016

  The Hill

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  Transportation Safety

  The Response to Every Terrorist Attack Cannot Be Another Checkpoint

  The Istanbul attack will renew calls to extend existing security screening at the front doors of terminals. But checkpoints create bottlenecks and queues of people waiting to get through them, which then become an easy target.

  Jul 1, 2016

  The Hill

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  Counterterrorism

  Cyberterrorism and the Role of Silicon Valley

  As national security and war are being redefined for the digital age, Silicon Valley will need to be on the front line of counterterrorism. Its inventors and entrepreneurs are driving the information revolution, and they must figure out how to protect vital systems against malevolent intrusions.

  Jun 13, 2016

  TechCrunch

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  Transportation Security

  Terrorism Shouldn't Affect Travel Plans

  Evidence suggests that the threat of terrorism need not affect individuals' behavior and travel decisions, not even in the wake of attacks such as those in Brussels and Paris.

  May 21, 2016

  USA Today

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  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...

  If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.

  May 11, 2016

  Foreign Policy

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  Counterterrorism

  Five Years After the Death of Osama bin Laden, Is the World Safer?

  What effect did killing bin Laden have on al Qaeda's ability to pursue its jihadist goals? Does high-value targeting contribute to counterterrorist strategy more broadly? Does killing terrorist leaders work?

  May 2, 2016

  The Cipher Brief

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  Intelligence Collection

  Europe's Terror Fight Far from Over

  Salah Abdeslam is suspected of being the logistics man for the November terrorist attacks in Paris. His capture may provide authorities with a window into the ISIS network in Europe.

  Mar 22, 2016

  CNN

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  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  How Real Is the ISIS Threat?

  In less than two years, ISIS's black flag has flown in a dozen countries outside of Syria and Iraq. And terrorist attacks have been carried out in its name in the West, including in America. But how serious is the threat that ISIS's brand of jihad will spread on a global scale?

  Mar 18, 2016

  The Cipher Brief

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Could ISIS and Al Qaeda, Two Giants of Jihad, Unite?

  It could take a change in leadership in both Al Qaeda and ISIS and perhaps some compromises on mission and strategy, but there are enough points of confluence to make a united jihadist front a realistic and frightening possibility.

  Mar 14, 2016

  Fox News Channel

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  Counterterrorism

  A Symbolic Purging of the NYPD Radicalization Report

  The NYPD's purging of its 2007 report on radicalization may give some satisfaction by symbolically breaking the connection between the current mayoral administration and the NYPD's previous intelligence and investigative efforts. But its significance seems questionable.

  Jan 26, 2016

  The Hill

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  Homeland Security Legislation

  Oregon Standoff Shouldn't Have an Anti-Terrorism Twist

  Dwight and Steven Hammond were charged under a law enacted to fight terrorism, not rein in wayward ranchers. Anti-terrorist laws should not be used to strengthen prosecutors' hands in nonterrorist prosecutions—it makes national security needs look like an instrument of oppression.

  Jan 13, 2016

  Slate

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  How Terrorist Threats Against LA and New York Schools Exposed Weaknesses

  The handling of terrorist threats on Los Angeles and New York City schools calls into question the ability of national and local government to coordinate a terrorist crisis involving two or more cities.

  Dec 23, 2015

  The Hill

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  How Terrorists Get Here

  Of 134 jihadist-inspired terrorists who have carried out or plotted attacks in the United States since 9/11, 96 were U.S. citizens and 19 others were legal permanent residents. While some level of comfort may be drawn from the fact that terrorists are not pouring into the country, there is no basis for complacency.

  Dec 18, 2015

  The Hill

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  Domestic Terrorism

  If Terrorism Is Homegrown, a Visa Overhaul Won't Keep Americans Safe

  Despite being the focus of renewed scrutiny, only three people involved in terrorist incidents have entered the United States via the visa waiver program in the past quarter-century.

  Dec 7, 2015

  The Guardian

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  Counterterrorism

  Why the Paris Terrorists Couldn't Be Stopped

  Terrorists almost always have the advantage. Theoretically, they can attack anything, anywhere, anytime. And governments cannot protect everything, everywhere, all the time.

  Nov 16, 2015

  Slate

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  Terrorist Bombings

  Big Questions Facing France

  In Paris, the heavily armed terrorists reportedly struck at six locations, including restaurants, a football stadium, and a theater during a rock concert. It seems clear the killers must have had some confederates. That would mean some terrorists are still at large.

  Nov 14, 2015

  CNN

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  Aircraft

  Passing Judgment on Russian Plane Crash Before the Facts Are In

  A bright flash and catastrophic event suggest an explosion, but do not necessarily exclude the possibility of a mechanical failure. This would not, in fact, be the first time evidence pointed to a terrorist attack when none existed.

  Nov 12, 2015

  The Hill

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  Syria

  Five Options for the U.S. in Syria

  How should the United States respond to Russia's intervention in Syria's civil war? Here are five options intended to encourage rational thinking based upon realistic presumptions, not media or campaign-driven hype.

  Oct 21, 2015

  The Hill

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  Refugees

  Will Today's Refugees Become the 'New Palestinians'?

  The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have generated the greatest volume of refugees since World War II. If the international community is to avoid seeing the emergence of a population of new Palestinians lasting decades into the future, it will have to craft a more coherent approach.

  Oct 9, 2015

  The Hill

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  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  Any Review of Syria and Iraq Strategy Needs Realistic Reappraisal

  Since the American-led coalition bombing campaign began a year ago, ISIS has suffered some military setbacks and lost territory, but it also has been able to capture several more key cities in Iraq and Syria, and, despite the bombing, continues to attract a large number of foreign fighters.

  Sep 28, 2015

  The Hill

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  Terrorist Organizations

  The Strategic Value of Terrorism

  While terrorists and criminals joining forces is certainly a scary thought, it's nothing new and not something that works as simply in practice as it does on a white board. Still, it's a threat worth watching.

  Aug 31, 2015

  The Cipher Brief

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  The 1970s and the Birth of Contemporary Terrorism

  While terrorism worldwide has increased over the past four decades — and the threat of terrorism continues to dominate Americans' fears — the 14 years since 9/11 have been tranquil on the home front compared to the violent 1970s.

  Jul 30, 2015

  The Hill

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  Counterterrorism

  After Attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait, West Must Do More to Fight Surge of Terrorist Attacks

  The terrorist attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait are just the latest warnings that ISIS is turning its campaign into a global enterprise.

  Jun 29, 2015

  New York Daily News

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  Transportation Security

  TSA Flunked Its Security Test Big Time — Now What?

  We have to accept that humans, no matter how well-trained they are or how dedicated they are to their mission, are just not very good at maintaining laser-like focus while performing repetitive tasks. That does not mean airport security can ever be completely given over to machines.

  Jun 15, 2015

  The Hill

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  Terrorism

  Should There Be a Hostage Czar?

  In light of recent kidnappings ending in the deaths of American hostages, appointing a 'hostage czar' may seem like a sound idea. But the creation of a high-profile position for hostage issues raises policy questions and comes with operational risks.

  Jun 1, 2015

  The Hill

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  Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

  The Death of Hostages and High-Flying Illusions

  Risk is unavoidable in fighting war or terrorism. Soldiers are sometimes felled by friendly fire, and civilians ostensibly on the sidelines become accidental targets. It is unrealistic to believe that such tragedies can always be prevented. Risks can be reduced but never entirely eliminated.

  May 4, 2015

  The Hill

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  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  Inside the Terrorist Factory

  As the civil wars in Syria and Iraq continue, they sharpen the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shias, threatening the stability of the region and attracting a steady flow of foreign volunteers, effectively turning Syria and Iraq into a terrorist factory.

  Mar 30, 2015

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

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  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  The Allure of ISIS for Young Recruits

  Poverty and oppression may explain why people in some countries embrace violent extremism, but it does not account for the flow of Western volunteers or the dreamy allure of fighting for a faraway cause. Biographies of those who have reached out to participate in jihad suggest a variety of motives, including alienation, personal crises, dissatisfaction with empty spiritual lives, and adolescent rebellion.

  Mar 20, 2015

  The Hill

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  Counterterrorism

  Different Countries, Different Ways of Countering Terrorism

  France and the United States follow different approaches in dealing with terrorist suspects. This divergence reflects differences in the threat, historical experience, law, available resources, and public attitudes. France faces a more serious terrorist threat than the U.S. does.

  Mar 2, 2015

  The Hill

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  Domestic Intelligence

  Predicting the 'Dangerousness' of Potential Terrorists

  Predicting 'dangerousness' of potential terrorists is a hit-and-miss endeavor. Unless someone is waving a gun, it is extremely difficult. Even with direct access to the subject, parole boards, suicide prevention units and even trained clinicians get it wrong.

  Mar 2, 2015

  The Hill

• 
  Counterterrorism

  Attempting to Understand the Paris Attacks

  The investigation will eventually fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge of the events leading up to the attacks in Paris, but some questions will remain unanswered. Embedded in the unknowns are some of the chronic dilemmas faced by counterterrorist authorities everywhere.

  Feb 26, 2015

  The Hill

• 
  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  ISIS's Calculated Barbarity

  ISIS's decision to murder its Jordanian hostage by burning him alive may turn out to be a strategic miscalculation, but it is not madness. Through self-selection, continued fighting, and the exaltation of unlimited violence, ISIS has created a cult whose members command and revel in displays of ever-increasing cruelty.

  Feb 10, 2015

  The Hill

• 
  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  Experts React to ISIS's Gruesome Execution of Jordanian Pilot

  A grisly video released yesterday by ISIS appears to show Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasaesbeh burned alive in a cage. Why the shift away from beheadings? What does the execution mean for Jordan? What implications will it have for ISIS?

  Feb 4, 2015

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Improving Domestic Security to Combat Today's Terrorist Threats

  Today, the U.S. confronts a multilayered terrorist threat and the recent spate of attacks in Europe underscores the necessity for ensuring that intelligence keeps up with it. Intelligence services must continue to prevent terrorist assaults dispatched from abroad, head off new shoe and underwear bombers, intercept individuals returning from jihadist fronts with terrorist intentions, while at the same time uncovering and thwarting homegrown plots.

  Jan 30, 2015

  The Hill

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Eight Lessons from the Charlie Hebdo Attack

  Among the lessons to be learned from the attacks in Paris are that terrorism has many audiences, Al-Qaida remains a threat, would-be warriors are unconcerned with the schisms among jihadist camps, Europe has a more serious problem, such an attack could happen in the U.S., and intelligence is crucial.

  Jan 23, 2015

  Slate

• 
  Terrorism

  Terror in Paris, Answers from RAND Experts

  The attack that claimed the lives of 12 people in the offices of a Paris-based satirical magazine sent waves of terror and disbelief across France today. RAND experts discuss what the terrorists stand to gain from the attack, what it could mean for Muslims around the world, and more.

  Jan 7, 2015

• 
  Terrorism

  A Grim Choice: The Attempted Rescue of Hostages

  Many described the attempt to rescue Luke Somers from al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen as 'botched,' suggesting it was badly or carelessly planned or executed. 'Desperate' may be more apt. Such measures aren't undertaken without a grim calculus weighing the chances of success against a range of other outcomes, most of which involve the hostages' doom.

  Dec 19, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  When Jihadis Come Marching Home

  The existing pool of determined jihadists in America is very small and lacks training and experience, which fighting in Syria and Iraq would provide. Returning jihadi veterans would be more formidable adversaries. Still, the threat appears manageable using current U.S. laws and existing resources.

  Nov 19, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Military Strategy

  Is Obama a Modern-Day Quintus Fabius Maximus?

  Critics say President Obama dragged his feet on sending more troops to Afghanistan, on addressing the dangers in Libya, on providing support to Syria's rebels and, most recently, on initiating military action against Islamic State. But is that necessarily such a bad thing?

  Oct 22, 2014

  Los Angeles Times

• 
  Air Warfare

  Air Campaign Against ISIS Is Just Getting Off the Ground

  More than 60 countries have joined the coalition against ISIS, with at least 12 participating in the air campaign. Eventually, this will be an impressive armada, but the campaign is still in its first stage, and most of the coalition participants joined the effort only recently.

  Oct 17, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Military Strategy

  What Could U.S. Boots on the Ground Do in Iraq and Syria?

  Before embracing American boots on the ground as a strategy to fight ISIS, it's essential to be clear about what they're going to do, what they may require, and what risks may be entailed.

  Oct 15, 2014

  Defense One

• 
  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  What Are ISIS's Options Now?

  In domestic debates about what the United States should do to blunt the threat posed by ISIS, Americans often forget the adversary also has options. A determined force, ISIS will counter the bombing campaign.

  Oct 10, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Military Doctrine

  An Inconvenient War

  Congress has not addressed President Obama's plans to take other military steps against ISIS. Some members of Congress do not want to vote on the use of military force until after the upcoming elections. Among these are some who fear their vote could cost them votes.

  Sep 25, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Terrorism

  Why the U.S. Swaps Prisoners but Doesn't Pay Ransom

  Reports that the United States refused to pay ransom for journalist James Foley, only weeks before it released Taliban prisoners in exchange for Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, have caused confusion about U.S. policy. On the surface, it may seem inconsistent. Why release prisoners but not pay ransom?

  Sep 2, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

  Disrupting Terrorist Safe Havens

  Disrupting the terrorist safe havens in Syria and Iraq would require a balanced approach that makes the business of terrorist planning and training difficult without entangling U.S. forces in new conflicts and angering the very populations the United States seeks to assist.

  Aug 18, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Counterterrorism

  An Evil Wind

  The threat of global terrorist enterprises has been enhanced by Western fighters joining al Qaeda offshoots like the Islamic State. With the terrorist threat evolving, the United States has little choice but to evolve with it.

  Jul 31, 2014

  Slate

• 
  Terrorist Bombings

  TSA's Cellphone Rule Part of Deadly Race

  While placing explosives inside a cellphone is plausible, it is almost impossible to do so with iPhones without rendering them non-functional, which is why the TSA is now checking cell phones are actually working.

  Jul 29, 2014

  CNN

• 
  Global Security

  Iraq Makes Strange Bedfellows

  In seeking to quell the unrest in Iraq, the United States must balance its own interests with those of a diverse cast of players that includes Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, an unpredictable and violent jihadist front and others.

  Jul 15, 2014

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Iraq

  Further Observations on the Situation in Iraq

  It is difficult to see how the United States can favorably affect the situation in Iraq without making a costly and risky investment. But that does not mean doing nothing. An immediate objective is to contain the conflict.

  Jul 14, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Iraq

  Iraq Observations

  Will the Obama administration be blamed for losing Iraq if it does not order military intervention? Or will history judge the president wise for keeping U.S. forces out of war? As Americans debate assisting Iraq, including the possibility of military intervention, here are 10 things to keep in mind.

  Jun 19, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Terrorist Organizations

  The Risks of Rescue

  As appealing as a successful mission to rescue the 200 school girls held hostage by Boko Haram in Nigeria might appear, the use of U.S. military assets to mount a rescue attempt would be a mistake.

  Jun 13, 2014

  The Ripon Forum

• 
  Terrorism

  Nigeria's Inescapable Burden

  The historical record suggests that when many hostages are involved, rescues are bloody affairs. Early RAND research on hostage situations showed that of all the ways hostages may be killed—during the initial abduction, trying to escape, murdered by their captors or during the rescue—79 percent died during the rescue.

  May 19, 2014

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Transportation Security

  The Breach of Security at San Jose's Airport Raises Broader Issues

  Those charged with security must think in terms of 360-degree security—not only screening passengers coming through the terminal, but also preventing unauthorized access to the aircraft from the air operations side of airport.

  May 13, 2014

  Mineta Transportation Institute

• 
  Terrorist Organizations

  When Terrorists Kill Terrorists

  Battles between rival rebel groups and within terrorist organizations are not uncommon. Terrorists may compete with each other, sometimes in deadly battles, for the control of sources of financing. Some of the internal struggles are about who will lead.

  May 5, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Al Qaida

  A Bigger, but Less Unified, al Qaeda

  In the long run, al Qaeda might be able to reel in its more unreliable offspring, assert more control, demand their obedience, and call upon their resources to assist in global operations. But without a stronger center, that possibility seems remote.

  Apr 25, 2014

  The Hill

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  After Boston, Beware DIY Attacks: Front & Center

  Orlando Sentinel editorial writer Darryl E. Owens interviewed Brian Michael Jenkins, senior adviser to the president of RAND. They discussed last year's Boston Marathon bombing and the current threat of terrorist acts in the United States.

  Apr 16, 2014

  Orlando Sentinel

• 
  Al Qaida

  Discord Among Terrorists

  Overall, divisions in Al Qaeda's ranks are good news for the United States. While the split will not end the jihadists' terrorist campaigns, it will preoccupy Al Qaeda's leaders and create uncertainty in its ranks.

  Feb 25, 2014

  The Mark News

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  What Might Terrorists Do Next?

  No one can predict with any certainty what terrorists might do next. If there is one lesson America learned about counterterrorism on 9/11, it's that the coming attack may look nothing like those that preceded it.

  Feb 24, 2014

  Insurance Journal

• 
  Counterterrorism

  Experts Are Working to Develop Evidence-Based Ways to Measure Anti-Terrorism Efforts

  The effects of security measures ought not to be measured solely in terms of prevention. Different types of countermeasures produce different effects, such as deterrence, making it easier for security to intervene during an attempted attack, and providing visible security that reassures the public.

  Feb 7, 2014

  Inside Science

• 
  Security Cooperation

  Fight Today's Terrorist Threat, Not Yesterday's

  Counterterrorism is not just about daring raids and drone strikes. It is about the hard work of collecting and sifting through vast amounts of information and managing relationships among organizations that often regard sharing information as an unnatural act.

  Feb 7, 2014

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  The Secretive Battle for Sochi

  Russia seems to be taking prudent steps to make the games the safe and secure display of athleticism and international good fellowship they once were. The outcome hinges on a pair of unknowns: the secret counterterrorism strategies Russian authorities have undertaken and the terrorists’ capacity for creativity and surprise.

  Feb 5, 2014

  CNN

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  The Real Homeland Security Issues for 2014

  Americans should be able to discuss the terrorist threat and how best to meet it, how much of the country’s precious resources should be devoted to homeland security, and the impact intelligence efforts can have on personal privacy and freedom.

  Feb 5, 2014

  Slate

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  The Terrorist Threat to the Sochi Olympics

  From the Black September attacks on Israeli athletes in 1972, to the post 9/11 games in Salt Lake City, to the 2012 games in London, security has been a concern at all modern Olympics. Recent terrorist attacks in Russia, though, present particular concern as the world's athletes descend on Sochi.

  Jan 31, 2014

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Syria

  Syria's Bloody Stalemate

  With little chance of a negotiated end to the fighting, the war in Syria is likely to drag on. And even if somehow the bloodshed were to end relatively soon, the war will leave a legacy of odium and thousands of fighters that will threaten the region and beyond far into the future.

  Jan 17, 2014

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Terrorist Bombings

  Why Did Terrorists Attack Volgograd?

  The Volgograd attacks have brought renewed world attention to the unresolved conflict in the turbulent Caucasus. The bombings no doubt have rattled Russian nerves. While Umarov's reputation among extremists will rise, President Putin's reputation as defender of Russia is at stake.

  Dec 31, 2013

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Syria

  Should the United States End Assistance to Syria's Rebels?

  The American investment in Syria thus far can be accurately described as timid and minimal. The United States can do more to assist the rebels without directly using American military power or sliding into a strategy of escalation.

  Dec 23, 2013

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Al Qaida

  Whither al Qaeda: A 'Tri-alogue' with Brian Michael Jenkins, Seth Jones, and Andrew Liepman

  Recent comments by key U.S. lawmakers have again raised the issue of where the United States is in its campaign against al Qaeda. This has left some to wonder if the terrorism threat is increasing and if Americans are not as safe as they were a year or two ago. Three senior RAND analysts offer their take.

  Dec 10, 2013

• 
  Transportation Security

  Want to Create Problems? Arm the TSA

  With its current 47,000 screeners, an armed TSA would become the federal government's largest armed entity outside of the military. In the eyes of many, arming TSA screeners would change the image of the organization from a service aimed at guaranteeing safe air travel to an unwanted imposition of federal authority.

  Nov 7, 2013

  Los Angeles Times

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Airport Violence—Not a New Phenomenon

  Shootings at airports are nothing new, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. In fact, they have regularly occurred worldwide in recent years. The motives have included terrorism, crime, and mental illness.

  Nov 2, 2013

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Counterterrorism

  How War on Terrorism Has Evolved

  Special operations to capture terrorists are more dangerous than drone strikes, and nimble terrorist adversaries will develop countermeasures to make them even more difficult. But they are politically more acceptable and offer opportunities for intelligence and the visible delivery of justice.

  Oct 24, 2013

  USA Today

• 
  Syria

  Syria As We Know It Is Gone

  Other than as a geographic expression, Syria has ceased to exist, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. With Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, Bashar Assad's forces, at the moment, appear to have gained the initiative over a fragmented rebel movement.

  Oct 16, 2013

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  International Diplomacy

  10 Reasons U.S. Influence Has Fallen in the Middle East

  By most assessments, U.S. influence in the Middle East has dramatically declined since the Arab uprisings began in January 2011. Critics have blamed this on inept diplomacy by the current administration, but this is only a partial explanation for America's loss of authority in the region.

  Sep 16, 2013

  Slate

• 
  Military Strategy

  Limited U.S. Military Strikes Do Not Unseat Dug-in Dictators

  Like the measured attacks that may soon strike Syrian targets, America's first military attacks on Serbia, Libya, Iraq, Sudan, and Afghanistan were not aimed at regime change. Their purpose was to retaliate for attacks or coerce changes in policy.

  Sep 9, 2013

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Egypt

  What's Next for the Muslim Brotherhood?

  Some believe the Muslim Brotherhood should stay in the political game, adopting the role of loyal opposition. The Brotherhood would remain a minority party, but it could continue to hold offices, provide social assistance that the government does not, and demonstrate its continuing strength at the polls.

  Aug 26, 2013

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Al Qaida

  What Would al Qaeda's PowerPoints Say?

  Over the last 12 years, the campaign against al Qaeda has dominated U.S. policy. From this perspective, al Qaeda has been a beneficiary of the Arab uprisings in general and of recent events in Egypt and Syria in particular. The longer the turmoil continues, the greater al Qaeda's possible gains, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Aug 23, 2013

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Could Terrorists Pull Off a Mumbai-Style Attack in the U.S.?

  There is, at present, no known terrorist group in the United States that has the organization and human resources to assemble an operation of the complexity and scale of the Mumbai attack, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jul 10, 2013

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Crowd-sourcing Our Security

  Involvement can transform members of the public from helpless bystanders into active participants in their own defense, thereby reducing fear and alarm, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 13, 2013

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Chemical Weapons and Warfare

  The Syrian Chemical Weapons Conundrum

  Dealing with chemical weapons in Syria is a complicated and dangerous task, but nowhere near the challenge of securing a nuclear arsenal in a country consumed by crisis, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 1, 2013

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Counterterrorism

  The Day After

  The risk of overreaching in the name of homeland security is great. But the best and most likely outcome of this latest attack would be a measured security response built around Americans engaging anew in their own security, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Apr 19, 2013

  Slate

• 
  Global Security

  When Armies Divide: Securing Nuclear Arsenals During Internal Upheavals

  With an army divided, any type of foreign intervention would be complex and fraught with extraordinary risk—success would be a long shot. But the loss of a nuclear weapon or fissile material would change the world.

  Apr 12, 2013

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Military Force Deployment

  The Invasion of Iraq: A Balance Sheet

  The costly removal of Saddam Hussein won no applause, earned no gratitude, established no reliable ally, and produced no lasting strategic benefit, says Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Mar 22, 2013

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Drug Policy and Trends

  Drug Cartels an X-Factor for Obama, Peña Nieto

  Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto and President Obama both face daunting domestic challenges and have ambitious domestic agendas, but both presidents are savvy politicians who realize that each will benefit from the other's success, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Feb 20, 2013

  The Orange County Register

• 
  Counterterrorism

  What Does the Amenas Attack Mean for U.S. Policy in Africa?

  Coinciding with continuing, contentious hearings on the U.S. response to last September's terrorist attack in Benghazi, the attack on the Amenas natural gas facility in Algeria has elevated a more general debate about the war on terrorism and U.S. policy in Africa, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jan 31, 2013

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Terrorist Organizations

  The Dynamics of the Hostage Situation at Amenas

  Looking at the turmoil in Libya following Qaddafi's removal; the overthrow of governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen; and Syria's ongoing civil war, it is easy to see why the Algerian government would view any manifestation of an Islamist resurgence as a threat that had to be promptly crushed, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jan 30, 2013

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Algeria

  The Motivations Behind the Amenas Terrorist Attack

  An attack of this complexity would have required months of reconnaissance, planning, recruiting of inside confederates, and training of participants. France's intervention in Mali was used to “justify” an attack that would likely have taken place anyway, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jan 29, 2013

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  The al Qaeda Threat in North Africa

  Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments.

  Jan 24, 2013

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Generations of Terrorism

  Whatever its eventual outcome, Syria's civil war has already produced thousands of experienced jihadists who will continue to threaten the region for years to come, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Dec 13, 2012

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Latest Alleged Homegrown 'Terrorists' Fit the Mold

  For many U.S.-born terror recruits, the prospect of blowing things up is a solution to an unsatisfactory life. Terrorism does not attract the well-adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Nov 20, 2012

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Mexico

  Will Mexico's New President Continue the War on the Cartels?

  During his campaign, Enrique Peña Nieto, the victorious PRI candidate, promised frightened and war-weary Mexicans a reduction in the violence, but since his election victory in July, he has sounded more and more bellicose, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Nov 16, 2012

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Transportation Security

  TSA Procedures Need to Be Remade from Scratch

  It is time for a new approach to meeting America's next-generation aviation security needs, one that dodges the influence of politics and bureaucracies and relies instead on the resources and objectivity of independent researchers operating from a clean slate, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Sep 28, 2012

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Global Security

  Syrian Scenarios

  The most likely outcome, in my opinion, may be no outcome at all, but instead a civil war lasting years. The conflict has become an existential struggle for its participants—their survival is at stake, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Aug 8, 2012

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: A Resurgence of Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism

  The future threat posed by Iranian-sponsored terrorism will be contingent upon Iran's calculations of risk. The current shadow war could escalate further if Iran thinks military attack by either Israel or the United States is inevitable and imminent or, obviously, if hostilities begin.

  Jul 23, 2012

• 
  Terrorist Organizations

  Getting the Threat Right

  Would-be jihadist warriors are angry, eager for adventure, out to assuage personal humiliation and demonstrate their manhood. Many appear to be motivated by personal crises—terrorism does not attract the well adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jun 15, 2012

  CATO Unbound

• 
  Counterterrorism

  A Final Word on the NDAA

  While I have no doubt of Levin's determination to protect the constitutional rights of American citizens, incremental adjustments and seemingly small compromises, each sensible under the circumstances, can have a cumulative effect that erodes the very liberty we are trying to protect, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 7, 2012

  Foreign Affairs

• 
  Counterterrorism

  Is the War on Terror Over? Not Yet.

  Over time, al Qaeda could just fade away. Always resilient, it may morph to survive. Developments on any of several fronts might even enable it to rise again. In a long contest, surprises must be expected, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 2, 2012

  National Journal

• 
  Counterterrorism

  The NDAA Makes It Harder to Fight Terrorism

  Much of the debate over this bill has focused on the political issue of executive authority versus rule of law. In doing so it has overlooked the indirect and insidious effects the new law may have on the United States' largely successful counterterrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Feb 1, 2012

  Foreign Affairs

• 
  Counterterrorism

  Five Myths about 9/11

  Fear has made al-Qaeda the world's top terrorist nuclear power, yet it possesses not a single nuke. This is a lesson in how terrorism works, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Sep 2, 2011

  The Washington Post

• 
  Transportation Security

  Is it Time to Consider a New Approach to Airline Security?

  It may be possible that the development and deployment of improved security technologies and reconfigurations of security checkpoints will keep security one step ahead of terrorist adversaries, but it also may be an appropriate time to explore fundamentally new approaches, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Sep 1, 2011

  The Ripon Forum

• 
  Terrorist Organizations

  Osama a Wizard of Illusion and Rhetoric

  Bin Laden was chairman of the board, not CEO, using his moral authority to urge his tiny army forward, pointing out new ways to kill Americans, encouraging followers to think outside the typical terrorist playbook, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jun 1, 2011

  Providence Journal

• 
  Terrorist Organizations

  Al-Qaeda after bin Laden

  Wary of communicating with each other and with al Qaeda's field commands, al Qaeda central could become more isolated, more dependent on its affiliates, allied groups, and individual acolytes, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 12, 2011

  National Journal

• 
  Suicide Attack

  What Al Qaeda Is Thinking Now: Defanged, but Desperate to Show They're Still in the Fight

  There may be some spontaneous acts by individuals enraged by Bin Laden's death who are inspired to follow him into martyrdom. But these are the spasms of reaction, not planned retaliatory operations, and will not demonstrate that Al Qaeda can survive Bin Laden, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 4, 2011

  New York Daily News

• 
  Transportation Security

  Why Terrorists Attack Airports

  Attacks on airports give terrorists the symbolic value they seek and guarantee the attention of the international news media, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jan 25, 2011

  CNN

• 
  Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

  Book Review: 'Fallout' by Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz

  Anyone concerned about nuclear proliferation or interested in the world of espionage will want to read Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz's provocative new book, "Fallout: The True Story of the CIA's Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking," which tells a fascinating story whose characters come straight out of a spy novel, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Jan 9, 2011

  Los Angeles Times

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Our Foes Cannot Destroy This Nation

  We have come through wars, depressions, natural and man-made disasters, indeed higher levels of domestic terrorist violence than that we face today, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Sep 27, 2010

  NationalJournal.com

• 

  Denying Homegrown Terrorists the Glory

  How should the United States counter homegrown jihadist terrorism? With al Qaeda and its jihadist allies extolling recent terrorist exploits in the United States, we must anticipate further attacks by terrorists who have been recruited and radicalized here in this country, writes Brian Jenkins.

  Jun 24, 2010

  RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org

• 

  5 Reasons We're Safer From Terrorists

  Why aren't there more Times Square bombers? It is not a complaint, but a question that intrigues terrorism analysts. Why haven't more jihadist terrorist attacks been attempted in the United States since 9/11?, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 12, 2010

  AOL News

• 

  Jihadist Threat Keeps Evolving

  The lesson of the Times Square attack is that the terrorist threat posed by the jihadist movement continues to evolve. It is today more decentralized, more dependent upon al Qaeda's affiliates, allies and individual acolytes to continue its global terrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  May 10, 2010

  NationalJournal.com

• 
  Al Qaida

  Al Qaeda Tipping Point? Still a Long Way to Go

  Although al Qaeda appears to be coming under pressure in some dimensions, I remain wary of calling a tipping point, and I am even more skeptical about the prospect of a knockout punch, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Apr 26, 2010

  NationalJournal.com

• 
  Transportation Security

  What We Can Learn from the Christmas Day Bombing Attempt

  President Obama's nominee to lead the Transportation Security Administration said he would like U.S. airport screening to more closely resemble Israel's. Perhaps attention is turning to what really matters about the attempted bombing of Northwest Flight 253: what it can teach us about aviation security, write

  Mar 26, 2010

  The Washington Post

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Jihad Jane and the Risk of Domestic Terrorism

  The revelation of the arrest in October of Colleen Renee LaRose, who had adopted the pathetically predictable nom de guerre Jihad Jane, once again focuses national attention on homegrown terrorism. But while worrisome, this threat needs to be kept in perspective, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Mar 12, 2010

  AOL News

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  How Can We Keep Los Angeles Secure?

  High-ranking officials in Washington tell Americans that the threat from terrorists—principally self-radicalized homegrown terrorists—is high. Do terrorists pose a threat to Los Angeles? asks Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Mar 5, 2010

  LAmag.com

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  How a Decade of Terror Changed America

  Two foiled airliner bombings bracket a decade that changed the world's understanding of terrorism as a new form of global warfare and has had profound ramifications we are still coming to grips with in the U.S., writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Dec 30, 2009

  AOL News

• 
  Military Force Deployment

  Afghanistan: A Marathon, Not a Prize Fight

  President Obama's decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan reflects a nation deeply divided on the war. There are compelling arguments on both sides, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Dec 1, 2009

  RAND.org

• 
  Security Cooperation

  How Russia Can and Can't Help Obama

  In hindsight, KGB analysts and Soviet officials were extraordinarily prescient about the perils of Islamist terrorism and the fallout from the Afghan jihad. But could Russia, for all its faults and foibles, be a more valuable counterterrorism partner today, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Aug 26, 2009

  Foreign Policy

• 
  Maritime Piracy

  Who Has the Will to Fight Piracy?

  The recent French and American rescues of hostages held by pirates off the coast of Somalia were necessary and proper. No one believes these actions will end piracy. But unless we impose risks on the pirates--which means taking some risks ourselves--piracy will certainly flourish, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Apr 21, 2009

  GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Counterterrorism

  The Torture Debate, Redux

  Former Vice President Cheney has been insisting again that the coercive interrogation techniques used against terrorism detainees after 9/11 prevented attacks on the United States.... His assertions merit more careful examination, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Apr 1, 2009

  GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Mexico

  Could Mexico Fail?

  The lawlessness along the mexicanborder has gone way beyond alocal crime wave: there has beena dramatic increase in armed robberies, not by lone gunmen but by heavily armed gangs. Kidnappings and homicides are way up—and not just murders but beheadings.... It is starting to look like a terrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Feb 13, 2009

  Homeland Security Today

• 
  Iraq

  The Obama Withdrawal From Iraq: How Fast?

  The debate over withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has effectively ended: Troops will begin withdrawing in early 2009.... What is not yet entirely clear is what type of residual American force may remain in Iraq, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Dec 16, 2008

  NationalJournal.com

• 
  Terrorism Threat Assessment

  Mumbai's Terrifying Logic

  We tend to describe terrorism as senseless violence, but it seldom is. If we look at the attacks from the attackers' perspective, we can discern a certain strategic logic, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Dec 9, 2008

  United Press International

• 

  How Will Obama First Be Tested?

  Vice President-elect Biden was on solid historical ground. He was not implying that there is a band of bad guys hiding in some cellar conjuring up a crisis specifically to take on Obama. It is simply that, many new American presidents have confronted major foreign policy crises within their first year in office, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Dec 8, 2008

  NationalJournal.com

• 
  Threat Assessment

  Obama's First International Crisis

  When Sen. Joe Biden observed during the presidential campaign that a new President Barack Obama

  Nov 16, 2008

  The San Diego Union-Tribune

• 
  Nuclear Deterrence

  Georgia Dispute Derails Bid to Stop Nuke Terrorism

  Given American concerns about nuclear proliferation and the possibility of nuclear terrorism, tying U.S.-Russian cooperation in the nuclear domain with the current Russia-Georgia quarrel may amount to shooting ourselves in the foot in a misguided attempt to punish Russia, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Oct 6, 2008

  Providence Journal

• 

  Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

  America is uniquely susceptible to nuclear terror. Beneath our characteristic national optimism lie seams of anxiety, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Sep 12, 2008

  United Press International

• 
  Nuclear Terrorism

  A Nuclear 9/11?

  Will terrorists go nuclear? It is a question that worried public officials and frightened citizens have been asking for decades. It is no less of a worry today, as we ponder the seventh anniversary of 9/11, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

  Sep 12, 2008

  CNN.com

• 
  Iraq

  A New Tact on Iraq

  American troops are likely to be needed in Iraq for years to come. Few insurgencies end in less than 10 years, and the conflict in Iraq is an especially complex mixture of guerrilla warfare, sectarian violence and virulent organized crime, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in Washingtonpost.com.

  Aug 25, 2007

  Washingtonpost.com

• 

  Combating Radicalization

  Nothing is more important in the global war on terrorism than reducing the production of new terrorists, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in United Press International.

  Aug 23, 2007

  United Press International

• 

  Nuclear Terror: How Real?

  Nuclear Terror: How Real? in Washington Times

  May 13, 2007

  Washington Times

• 

  Not Every Tragedy Has a Solution

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Not Every Tragedy Has a Solution, in Washingtonpost.com.

  Apr 18, 2007

  Washingtonpost.com

• 

  Old Front Against Terrorism

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Old Front Against Terrorism, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

  Jan 14, 2007

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  Terror War Uncertainties

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Terror War Uncertainties, in United Press International.

  Oct 6, 2006

  United Press International

• 

  State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later?

  Published commentary by RAND staff: State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later?, in the Los Angeles Times.

  Sep 11, 2006

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Safer, But Not Safe

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Safer, But Not Safe, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

  Sep 10, 2006

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  The Threat of Oil Jihad

  Published commentary by RAND staff: The Threat of Oil Jihad, in United Press International.

  Mar 3, 2006

  United Press International

• 

  Lessons for Intelligence in the Campaign Against al Qaeda

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Lessons for Intelligence in the Campaign Against al Qaeda, in Vanguard magazine.

  Mar 2, 2006

  Vanguard

• 

  Just Starting: The War Against Terror

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Just Starting: The War Against Terror, in Newsday.

  Jan 25, 2006

  Newsday

• 

  Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses in the San Francisco Chronicle.

  Nov 13, 2005

  San Francisco Chronicle

• 

  Terror in Historical Context

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Prepare for Disaster in the United Press International.

  Oct 28, 2005

  United Press International

• 

  Let Sgt. Friday Fight Terror

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Let Sgt. Friday Fight Terror in the Los Angeles Times.

  Sep 25, 2005

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Democracy's Defense: Values and Justice

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Democracy's Defense: Values and Justice in the Baltimore Sun.

  Sep 11, 2005

  Baltimore Sun

• 

  Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

  Sep 11, 2005

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  Selecting for Security

  The recent decision to conduct random searches of backpacks and packages carried by passengers on New York and Boston subways, commuter trains, and buses has provoked controversy. Americans want better security, but remain wary about how it is provided.

  Jul 26, 2005

  Newsday

• 

  The Lessons of London

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jul 17, 2005

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  Strategy: Political Warfare Neglected

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jun 26, 2005

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  Can the Iraq Beast Be Tamed?

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  May 18, 2005

  Boston Globe

• 

  The Men Who Pursued Paradise in Destruction

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  May 15, 2005

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Kidnappings in Iraq Strategically Effective

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Apr 29, 2005

  Chicago Tribune

• 

  Bin Laden and His Special Effects

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Feb 4, 2005

  Chicago Tribune

• 

  Iraq: Not Terrorist Central

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jan 30, 2005

  Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

• 

  Semantics are Strategic in the War on Terror

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Sep 30, 2004

  The Globe and Mail

• 
  Counterterrorism

  The Four Defensive Measures Against Terrorism

  Today's terrorists kill in quantity and kill indiscriminately. Preparedness requires improving intelligence, increasing security, developing effective response capabilities, and community involvement.

  Sep 24, 2004

  24 Chasa

• 

  The View from Ground Zero: Is America Safer?

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Sep 12, 2004

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  Looking for 'High Noon' in a Hundred Years' War

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Aug 22, 2004

  San Diego Union Tribune

• 

  World Becomes the Hostage of Media-Savvy Terrorists

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Aug 22, 2004

  USA Today

• 

  Don't Move Too Fast on Intelligence Reform

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Aug 17, 2004

  The Hill

• 

  Trains, Buses and Terror

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  May 3, 2004

  The Mercury News

• 

  Bin Laden May Be Fishing for Allies on Europe's Secular Left

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Apr 25, 2004

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Does Terrorism Work?

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Mar 21, 2004

  The Mercury News

• 

  'Axis of Evil' Versus 'Chain of Evil'

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Feb 1, 2004

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  From 'White' Christmas to 'Orange' Christmas

  From 'white' Christmas to 'orange' Christmas

  Dec 25, 2003

  San Diego Union Tribune

• 

  Killing bin Laden, et al, Is No Help

  Today's emblem of terror is Osama bin Laden. If bin Laden were a fictional villain created by Hollywood, his death or capture would end the reign of terror he has visited upon the world. Al-Qaida would fold its tent. The violent jihad that bin Laden has endeavored to inspire and direct would fade away. And, as a result, the world would return to quieter and less threatening times.

  Dec 3, 2003

  Newsday

• 

  Breach of Airline Security Is Nothing to Panic About

  The arrest of Nathaniel T. Heatwole on charges of smuggling box cutters, bleach and matches aboard two commercial airliners reminds us that, despite significant improvements since Sept. 11, our security systems are not perfect. They never will be.

  Oct 21, 2003

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Connect the Cops to Connect the Dots

  commentaries by RAND Staff: insightful commentaries on current events, published in newspapers, magazines and journals worldwide.

  Jun 1, 2003

  The San Diego Union Tribune

• 

  All Citizens Now First Responders

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Mar 24, 2003

  USA Today

• 

  What If We Don't Attack Iraq?

  So-called allies have denounced U.S. plans to fight Saddam Hussein. Brian Michael Jenkins says they might not like the consequences of our inaction, either.

  Mar 16, 2003

  Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

• 

  Countering al-Qaeda: The Next Phase in the War

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Sep 8, 2002

  San Diego Union Tribune

• 

  Fliers Have Reason to Jettison Jitters

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Sep 3, 2002

  Atlanta Journal-Constitution

• 

  Put Brains Behind Airway Safety

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jul 30, 2002

  New York Daily News

• 

  Get Used to It: Our Airports Are Vulnerable to Terrorism

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jul 25, 2002

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Face Terror with Better Spying, Not Moats of Fear

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jul 10, 2002

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Safeguarding the Skies

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Sep 30, 2001

  San Diego Union Tribune

• 

  This Time It Is Different

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Sep 16, 2001

  San Diego Union Tribune

• 

  A Confounding, Complex Tragedy

  Without external assistance, Colombia cannot defeat the guerrilla-gangster Minotaur that consumes it. It is in our national interest to help. At the same time, it is necessary that we fully comprehend the harsh realities we and our Colombian allies face.

  Jun 17, 2001

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  Disloyalty Feeds on Cash, Flesh and Thrills

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Feb 22, 2001

  Los Angeles Times

• 

  Terrorist Trials Serve U.S. Strategy

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Jan 7, 2001

  Los Angeles Times

Publications

• 

  Commercial Book

  Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics

  In a concise, authoritative, and gripping telling, Brian Michael Jenkins provides an account of what kind of future the planet might be facing by looking at the world's long history of epidemics and discerning what was common about their aftermath.

  May 24, 2023

• 

  Report

  The Origin and Evolution of the RAND Corporation's Terrorism Databases: Defining and Building a New Field of Knowledge

  Two pioneers in terrorism research recount their experiences, challenges, achievements, and lessons learned, exploring the evolution of databases about terrorist incidents, groups, individual attributes, and mindsets, with eyes on what might be next.

  Nov 30, 2021

• 

  Multimedia

  Exiting Extremism: What Binds People to Extremist Groups and How Organizations Help Them Leave

  This one-hour webinar explores the forces that pull individuals to extremist groups, the binds that keep them connected, and why leaving can be so challenging.

  Jun 18, 2021

• 

  Journal Article

  Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

  President Biden must decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline. The consequences of the decision will decide the fate of Afghanistan and signal the U.S.' broader strategic intentions.

  Mar 12, 2021

• 

  Testimony

  The Collapse of Comity: Perilous Times in the Third Turbulent Century of Our Political Experiment

  Testimony presented before the House Committee on Homeland Security on February 4, 2021.

  Feb 4, 2021

• 

  Journal Article

  The Atomization of Political Violence

  The conclusion that terrorism is likely to persist at low levels does not preclude large-scale attacks. The present tumultuous state of the world and growing domestic extremism could produce dramatic changes in the future trajectory of political violence.

  2021

• 

  Journal Article

  The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism

  This essay provides observations on the future role of the armed forces in counterterrorism and the future role of counterterrorism forces in great power competition.

  Oct 6, 2020

• 

  Report

  Paths to Destruction: A Group Portrait of America's Jihadists — Comparing Jihadist Travelers with Domestic Plotters

  In this report, the author examines hundreds of U.S. residents who have traveled or attempted to travel abroad to join or otherwise support terrorist organizations. The focus of the analysis is on the individuals' collective demographic profile.

  Sep 11, 2020

• 

  Journal Article

  Options for Dealing with Islamic State Foreign Fighters Currently Detained in Syria

  This essay, which reflects the author's personal views, examines eight options and is intended to move the discussion beyond political bickering and wishful thinking.

  May 31, 2019

• 

  Brochure

  Waging War Beyond the Battlefield: Remarks at the Celebration of 50 Years at RAND

  At an event commemorating his 50 years of service at RAND, Brian Michael Jenkins spoke about terrorism and the United States' response to it over the past several decades.

  Jan 8, 2019

• 

  Report

  Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans?

  Based on research initiated in the 1970s, this paper questions whether a no-ransom policy can be shown to be an effective deterrent. It reviews recent research, some of which supports the earlier findings, but one study reaches a contrary conclusion.

  Jan 8, 2018

• 

  Report

  The Origins of America's Jihadists

  Facing the threat of terrorism, the United States has devoted significant resources to preventing terrorist attacks. This Perspective identifies 86 plots and 22 actual attacks since 9/11 involving 178 planners and perpetrators.

  Nov 20, 2017

• 

  Journal Article

  Bush, Obama, And Trump: The Evolution Of U.S. Counterterrorist Policy Since 9/11

  9/11 and the U.S response that followed profoundly affected America's political landscape and its culture, perhaps permanently.

  Oct 6, 2017

• 

  Testimony

  Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum

  Document submitted on July7, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Committee on Armed Services on February 14, 2017.

  Jul 27, 2017

• 

  Testimony

  Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions

  Testimony presented before the House Committee on Armed Services on February 14, 2017.

  Feb 14, 2017

• 

  Testimony

  Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum

  Document submitted on January 11, 2017 as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on September 21, 2016.

  Jan 12, 2017

• 

  Journal Article

  Think Mass Shootings Are Terrorism? Careful What You Wish For

  Those arguing America needs a new domestic terrorism law haven't thought things through.

  2017

• 

  Journal Article

  Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened

  After the Cold War and nearly 70 years of waging war against communism, the United States and its key allies have adopted the war against terror as their new organizing principal.

  Oct 28, 2016

• 

  Testimony

  Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet

  Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on September 21, 2016.

  Sep 21, 2016

• 

  Report

  A Saudi-Led Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Welcome Muscle in the Fight Against Terrorism, Desert Mirage, or Bad Idea?

  Discusses Saudi Arabia's December 2015 announcement that it was creating a military alliance of Muslim-majority nations to fight terrorism, with a focus on how the United States should respond to the initiative.

  Apr 19, 2016

• 

  Report

  Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013

  RAND researchers examine whether a significant terrorist attack somehow inspires other terrorist attacks and whether analysis of historical attacks suggests that increases in terrorism can be anticipated in the shadow of a large attack.

  Mar 31, 2016

• 

  Journal Article

  A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis

  More than a generation has passed since the BerlinWall came down, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, and the contest between East and West that had lasted more than 40 years ended.

  2016

• 

  Testimony

  Inspiration, Not Infiltration: Jihadist Conspirators in the United States

  Testimony presented before the House Oversight and Governmental Reform Committee and Governmental Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Subcommittee on Health Care, Benefits, and Administrative Rules on December 10, 2015.

  Dec 10, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security

  Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on November 19, 2015.

  Nov 19, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning Western Fighters

  Testimony submitted before the House Foreign Affairs Committee and House Homeland Security Committee on November 18, 2015.

  Nov 18, 2015

• 

  Report

  How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq

  This essay examines how the dynamics of continuing conflicts will shape the future of Syria, Iraq, and the broader region. The conclusions point to a substantial gap between American national objectives and a realistic appreciation of the situation.

  Sep 24, 2015

• 

  Report

  War by What Means, According to Whose Rules? The Challenge for Democracies Facing Asymmetric Conflicts: Proceedings of a RAND–Israel Democracy Institute Workshop, December 3–4, 2014

  Proceedings of a workshop aimed at developing new strategies to cope with asymmetric conflict in all its dimensions, including military operations, human rights, media, public opinion, political warfare, international diplomacy, and civil liberties.

  Aug 12, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq: Addendum

  Document submitted on April 17, 2015 as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on March 12, 2015.

  Apr 17, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad

  Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee on March 24, 2015.

  Mar 24, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed By Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq

  Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Border and Maritime Security on March 17, 2015.

  Mar 17, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq

  Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on March 12, 2015.

  Mar 12, 2015

• 

  Report

  When Jihadis Come Marching Home: The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria and Iraq

  This Perspective seeks to examine the scope of the threat posed by Westerners who return to their homes after fighting in Syria and Iraq; what can be done to reduce the threat, and whether military action is necessary in combating it.

  Feb 16, 2015

• 

  Report

  The Future of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act

  Recounts the proceedings of a conference to discuss recent RAND research on issues related to the potential reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, as well as the varying implications of TRIA's expiration, modification, and extension.

  Sep 2, 2014

• 

  Report

  Brothers Killing Brothers: The Current Infighting Will Test al Qaeda's Brand

  An attack by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that killed the leader of a rival group led to the unprecedented expulsion of ISIL from al Qaeda, a break that could create intelligence and propaganda opportunities for the United States.

  Apr 23, 2014

• 

  Report

  The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War

  This essay explores the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, including the characteristics and interests of the belligerents and foreign powers and the implications that the present course of events has for the future of Syria and the wider region.

  Jan 17, 2014

• 

  Report

  Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats and the Continuing Challenges of Domestic Intelligence Collection and Information Sharing

  A summary of discussions by participants at a seminar on domestic intelligence and information sharing as these relate to terrorist threats.

  Jan 13, 2014

• 

  Testimony

  The Role of Terrorism and Terror in Syria's Civil War

  Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade on November 20, 2013.

  Nov 20, 2013

• 

  Testimony

  The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States

  Testimony submitted before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence on June 12, 2013.

  Jun 12, 2013

• 

  Commercial Book

  When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars

  This book examines the security of nuclear arsenals during revolts, coups, and civil wars.

  Apr 11, 2013

• 

  Journal Article

  An Incremental Tyranny

  The author examines the way in which society adapted to terrorism over the years. What previous generations saw as extraordinary, the current generation accepts as normal.

  2013

• 

  Report

  Aviation Security: After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review

  Budgetary constraints, heavy passenger loads, and popular hostility toward screening procedures are all challenges to securing commercial aviation. After 40 years of focus on tactical measures, it is time for a sweeping review of aviation security.

  Aug 29, 2012

• 

  Testimony

  New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: Addendum

  Document submitted on August 24, 2012 as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 11, 2012.

  Aug 27, 2012

• 

  Testimony

  New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat

  Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 11, 2012.

  Jul 11, 2012

• 

  Report

  Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory?

  A personal assessment of the status of al Qaeda now in its third decade.

  Feb 16, 2012

• 

  Testimony

  Is Al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working?

  Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence on December 6, 2011.

  Dec 6, 2011

• 

  Testimony

  Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy: Addendum

  Document submitted on November 1, 2011 as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, on June 22, 2011.

  Nov 2, 2011

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011

  Stories discuss America after 9/11, Afghan-based solutions, Al Qaeda's narrative, air passenger security, victim compensation, military families, health insurance, entrepreneurship, unemployment, sex, Katrina families, Arab Spring, and a new RAND.

  Sep 1, 2011

• 

  Report

  Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11

  An examination of ''homegrown terrorism'' from 9/11 through 2010, highlighting lessons learned from terrorist events that suggest actions for the future, and a chronology of cases in the United States during that period.

  Aug 31, 2011

• 

  Report

  The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism

  In a series of essays, this book addresses the question of how America has responded in the ten years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks and suggests options for more effectively dealing with the terrorist threat in the future.

  Jul 26, 2011

• 

  Testimony

  Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy

  Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities on June 22, 2011.

  Jun 22, 2011

• 

  Brochure

  The Tenth Year: A Briefing on Terrorism Issues to New Members of the 112th Congress

  On January 8, 2011, Brian Michael Jenkins briefed newly elected members of Congress on foreign policy, national security, and domestic issues, with a particular focus on domestic terrorism prevention and transportation security in the post-9/11 era.

  Feb 3, 2011

• 

  Testimony

  The al Qaeda-Inspired Terrorist Threat: An Appreciation of the Current Situation

  Testimony presented before the Canadian Senate Special Committee on Anti-terrorism on December 6, 2010.

  Dec 6, 2010

• 

  Testimony

  No Path to Glory: Deterring Homegrown Terrorism

  Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on May 26, 2010.

  May 20, 2010

• 

  Report

  Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001

  Intelligence collection by law enforcement and lack of community support have limited radicalization and recruitment to jihadist terrorism in the United States to 46 cases since 9/11, although 2009 saw a sharp increase in the number of cases.

  May 5, 2010

• 

  Testimony

  Going Jihad: The Fort Hood Slayings and Home-Grown Terrorism

  Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on November 19, 2009.

  Nov 17, 2009

• 

  Multimedia

  U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions -- Strategic Choices

  Video documenting a RAND-sponsored symposium of experts and journalists addressing assumptions and alternatives for U.S. policy in Afghanistan.

  Nov 6, 2009

• 

  Report

  Could Mexico Fail?

  Suggests ways the U.S. could address concerns about the growing lawlessness in northern Mexico and its consequences for U.S. national security.

  Apr 23, 2009

• 

  Testimony

  Terrorists Can Think Strategically: Lessons Learned From the Mumbai Attacks

  Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on January 28, 2009.

  Jan 26, 2009

• 

  Report

  The Lessons of Mumbai

  Analyzes the November 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, India, and derives lessons learned from the attack and from the Indian response.

  Jan 15, 2009

• 

  Journal Article

  Savage Struggle on the Border: Can Mexico Fail?

  Discusses the possibilities and options for America if neighboring country Mexico should become a failed state.

  2009

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008

  The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U.S. president; other pieces discuss education and health in China and India, health policy models, the U.S. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.S. Army, and political reform in the Arab world.

  Dec 14, 2008

• 

  Commercial Book

  Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

  Offering insights into vital questions of national security, presidential decisionmaking, and terrorist motives, world-renowned terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins examines how terrorists think about nuclear weapons and nuclear terror.

  Aug 2, 2008

• 

  Testimony

  Defining the Role of a National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism

  Testimony presented before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment on June 14, 2007.

  Jun 14, 2007

• 

  Testimony

  Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment

  Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on April 5, 2007.

  Apr 26, 2007

• 

  Testimony

  Basic Principles for Homeland Security

  Testimony presented before the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Homeland Security on January 30, 2007.

  Jan 26, 2007

• 

  Research Brief

  Fear Cannot Counter Terror

  This research brief summarizes an assessment of U.S. counterterrorism efforts, proposes strategic principles for defeating the enemy and for strengthening America, and emphasizes the need to maintain American values in the war on terror.

  Aug 8, 2006

• 

  Report

  Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves

  The author presents an overview of U.S. progress in the war on terrorism, reviews the jihadists' operational code, offers strategic principles for defeating terrorists, and discusses what America must do to prevail in this struggle.

  Jul 14, 2006

• 

  Report

  The New Age of Terrorism

  Offers a perspective on significant trends in terrorism over the past fourdecades.

  Feb 10, 2006

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 2006

  The cover story warns that Americans have succumbed too much to fear, forsaking the things for which they are fighting; related essays discuss suicide attacks, lessons from Algeria, protection for emergency responders, and public health preparedness.

  2006

• 

  Report

  Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror

  Three years after 9/11, the RAND Corporation held a conference to share results from recent terrorism studies with government officials, military officers, congressional staff, foundations and NGOs, foreign embassy representatives, and the public.

  Jun 13, 2005

• 

  Testimony

  Terrorism and the Security of Public Surface Transportation

  Testimony presented to the Senate Committee on Judiciary on April 8, 2004.

  Dec 21, 2004

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004

  Argues that new threats to national security represent fundamental changes in the ecology of conflict and that America's approach must evolve to meet the challenges; education, obesity, and wind tunnels in aeronautical research are also discussed.

  2004

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003

  Examines the debate regarding the safety and efficacy of ephedra; also covers contrasting lessons from different educational interventions, a "systems approach" to counterterrorism, domestic abuse, public health, and genetic manipulation.

  2003

• 

  Testimony

  Remarks Before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

  Testimony presented to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States on March 31, 2003.

  2003

• 

  Report

  Countering al Qaeda: An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy

  Next steps in the U.S. campaign to defeat al Qaeda and combat terrorism

  Apr 29, 2002

• 

  Report

  Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda

  The U.S. counterterrorism strategy should include political warfare, placing at risk things the terrorists hold dear, a credible threat of force against states or groups that support acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and maintaining cooperation with other nations engaged in the war on terror.

  Apr 29, 2002

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002

  Surveys RAND research conducted since Sept. 11, 2001, that examines the dimensions of the terrorist threat and potential responses to it, and issues such as global priorities, oversees deployments, homeland security, and state and local initiatives.

  2002

• 

  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 25, No. 3, Fall 2001

  Presents eight commentaries outlining complementary strategies for the long-term war against terrorism; also discusses how American arts organizations can adapt to shifting audiences and how improvements in depression care pay for themselves.

  2001

• 

  Testimony

  Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats

  Testimony presented to the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats on November 15, 2001.

  2001

• 

  Report

  Countering the New Terrorism

  Traces the recent evolution of international terrorism against civilian and U.S. military targets, looks ahead to where terrorism is going, and assesses how it might be contained.

  1999

• 

  Report

  Getting the Hostages Out: Who Turns the Key?

  Examines the information current at the time about the seven American hostages held in Lebanon. The author discusses the identity and nature of the captors, and then focuses on the degree to which Iran can influence or control them.

  1990

• 

  Report

  The Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy: Report on a May 1987 Conference

  Presents the results of a 1987 RAND conference on the Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy Implications.

  1989

• 

  Report

  The Possibility of Soviet-American Cooperation Against Terrorism

  Reviews an unofficial meeting held in Moscow, January 23-27, 1989, at which scholars and journalists from the Soviet Union and the United States met to discuss cooperative action against terrorism.

  1989

• 

  Report

  Terrorism: Policy Issues for the Bush Administration

  This Note touches upon these questions as it addresses the policy issues that are likely to confront the Bush Administration.

  1989

• 

  Report

  The Terrorist Threat to Commercial Aviation

  Reviews the statistics on terrorist attacks — hijackings and sabotage — on commercial airliners since the first such hijacking involving an El Al plane in 1968.

  1989

• 

  Report

  Nicaraguan Security Policy: Trends and Projections

  Considers the security challenges that Nicaragua might pose to U.S. interests in Central America in the years ahead.

  1988

• 

  Report

  Potential Threats to Offshore Platforms

  Increasingly spectacular acts of terrorism have led to growing concern that terrorists will move beyond the symbols of society and directly attack its technological and industrial targets, including offshore oil platforms.

  1988

• 

  Report

  The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: A Reexamination

  This study's primary concern is terrorist attacks against U.S. nuclear weapons systems in the United States or abroad. It first analyzes the motivations that might inspire various acts of nuclear terrorism.

  1988

• 

  Report

  Should Our Arsenal Against Terrorism Include Assassination?

  In a time of growing terrorist violence, assassination is sometimes mentioned as a countermeasure. This paper examines arguments for and against assassination as a means of combating terrorism.

  1987

• 

  Report

  The Aftermath of the Achille Lauro

  Discusses mistakes in diplomacy made by the U.S. government following the capture of the four hijackers of the Italian cruise ship, the Achille Lauro, and the subsequent demands for their extradition.

  1985

• 

  Report

  Colombia's Bold Gamble for Peace

  Colombia's recent rash of kidnappings and terrorism has given rise to government efforts to put an end to the guerrilla warfare and political violence that have plagued the country for twenty years.

  Jan 1, 1985

• 

  Report

  A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Terrorist Groups

  This report describes an analytical framework developed at RAND for studying the characteristics of terrorist groups and illustrates how that framework can be used to address broad questions about terrorists and their actions.

  1985

• 

  Report

  The Future Course of International Terrorism

  This paper considers the forms terrorism is likely to take in the near future, the levels of violence terrorists are likely to use, possible changes in terrorist tactics and their choice of targets, the future role of terrorism in armed conflict, and prob

  1985

• 

  Report

  Future Trends in International Terrorism

  This paper surveys likely future trends in international terrorism.

  1985

• 

  Report

  International Terrorism: The Other World War

  This report is intended to serve as a primer for Air Force officers who must gain a basic understanding of the phenomenon of terrorism.

  1985

• 

  Report

  The Likelihood of Nuclear Terrorism

  Discusses the likelihood that terrorists will detonate or threaten to detonate a nuclear device.

  1985

• 

  Report

  Military Force May Not Be Ruled Out

  This paper discusses options open to the United States in responding to two kinds of terrorism: "Ordinary" terrorism, committed by diverse terrorist groups, is the responsibility of the local government, and the U.S. response has been, and should rem...

  1985

• 

  Report

  Combatting Terrorism Becomes a War

  This paper discusses the implementation of the new National Security Directive signed by President Ronald Reagan on April 3, 1984.

  1984

• 

  Report

  Improving the Means for Intergovernmental Communications in Crisis

  Summarizes assessments of potential bilateral and multilateral measures for enhancing superpower stability in times of nuclear crisis.

  1984

• 

  Report

  The Lessons of Beirut: Testimony Before the Long Commission

  The volume of terrorist activity has increased in the last 15 years, terrorism has grown bloodier, and there is increasing use of terrorism by governments.

  1984

• 

  Report

  Testimony Before the Committee on the Judiciary

  This testimony reviews recent trends in terrorism worldwide, examines the terrorist threat in the United States, and briefly discusses some of the problems of intelligence and physical security against terrorist attacks.

  1984

• 

  Report

  Trends in International Terrorism, 1982 and 1983

  This report analyzes incidents recorded in The RAND Corporation's chronology of international terrorism for 1982 and 1983.

  1984

• 

  Report

  U.S. Policy for Central America: A Briefing

  This report looks at Central America in the light of U.S. foreign policy interests.

  1984

• 

  Report

  A Chronology of Terrorist Attacks and Other Criminal Actions Against Maritime Targets

  A list of terrorist incidents involving harbors, offshore platforms, and ships at sea.

  1983

• 

  Report

  Let's Not Punish Ourselves for Beirut

  Originally published in the Los Angeles Times, November 3, 1983.

  1983

• 

  Report

  New Modes of Conflict

  Building on past studies of terrorism and low-level conflict, this report attempts to describe how contemporary international terrorism fits into the broader scheme of armed conflict in general.

  1983

• 

  Report

  A Review of Recent Trends in International Terrorism and Nuclear Incidents Abroad

  Reviews trends in international terrorism and nuclear incidents abroad during 1980-1981.

  1983

• 

  Report

  Some Reflections on Recent Trends in Terrorism

  Presents a review of recent trends in terrorism and discusses possible future developments.

  1983

• 

  Report

  Subnational Conflict in the Mediterranean Region

  This paper reviews the patterns of conflict in the Mediterranean since World War II.

  1983

• 

  Report

  Terrorism: Between Prudence and Paranoia

  In an atmosphere of fear and alarm, extraordinary security precautions are being taken in the United States as a matter of prudence. That is what terrorism is really all about.

  1983

• 

  Report

  The Appeal of Nuclear Crimes to the Spectrum of Potential Adversaries

  This report presents the findings of the third phase of a RAND project on the potential threat to U.S. nuclear programs and facilities.

  1982

• 

  Report

  Diplomats on the Front Line

  A review of trends, tactics, and targets of terrorist attacks against diplomats since 1968, and some suggestions for areas in which international cooperation could help solve the problem.

  1982

• 

  Report

  Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Volume I, Effects on the Incidence, Investigation, and Prosecution of Terrorist Activity

  This Note addresses the question: To what extent did the post-Watergate intelligence "rules" affect law enforcement's ability to investigate and prosecute cases of domestic terrorism?

  1982

• 

  Report

  Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Executive Summary

  This report summarizes the conclusions of a study of constraints on intelligence activities in the investigation of terrorist or terrorist-related crimes in the United States.

  1982

• 

  Report

  Talking to Terrorists

  A discussion of the processes and problems of communicating with terrorists during diplomatic kidnapping incidents.

  1982

• 

  Report

  Terrorism and Beyond : An International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict

  Terrorism and beyond : an International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict

  1982

• 

  Report

  Combatting Terrorism: Some Policy Implications

  In this paper a strategy for combatting terrorism is outlined.

  1981

• 

  Report

  Embassies Under Siege : A Review of 48 Embassy Takeovers, 1971-1980

  A review of the 48 assaults made on embassies by terrorists and other militants between 1971 and 1980.

  1981

• 

  Report

  Fighting Terrorism: An Enduring Task

  Presents questions and answers from an interview with ADN-Kronos, an Italian news service, published in Il Messagero and later in the Washington Post.

  1981

• 

  Report

  International Terrorism: Choosing the Right Target

  The author addresses the question of "What really is the Soviet role in international terrorism?"

  1981

• 

  Report

  Options for U.S. Policy on Terrorism

  Summarizes the most policy-relevant findings and conclusions from nine years of RAND research on terrorism. The government faces complex issues in developing effective anti-terrorist policies and capabilities.

  1981

• 

  Report

  The Psychological Implications of Media-Covered Terrorism

  An expanded version of the author's presentation before an international seminar on Terrorism and the Mass Media held in Sicily, April 1981.

  1981

• 

  Report

  A Strategy for Combatting Terrorism

  A discussion of measures required to do something effective about terrorism. For the United States, the problem lies mainly outside its borders and there it is a very serious problem.

  1981

• 

  Report

  Testimony Before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Regarding Senate Bill Against Terrorism, January 27, 1978

  The author believes that terrorist tactics will persist as a mode of political expression, of gaining international attention, and of achieving limited political goals.

  1981

• 

  Report

  Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs

  A report intended to help officials responsible for nuclear security to establish more effective systems for protecting against nuclear crimes, by drawing plausible inferences about actions and targets that adversaries are likely to prefer.

  1980

• 

  Report

  Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs: Executive Summary

  A report intended to help officials responsible for nuclear security to establish more effective systems for protecting against nuclear crimes, by drawing plausible inferences about actions and targets that adversaries are likely to prefer.

  1980

• 

  Report

  The Potential Criminal Adversaries of Nuclear Programs: A Portrait

  Text of a speech describing perpetrators of potential criminal acts against nuclear programs in terms of their possible motivations, actions, methods, resources, and capabilities.

  1980

• 

  Report

  The Study of Terrorism: Definitional Problems

  The paper defines terrorism and cites examples of international terrorist events.

  1980

• 

  Report

  Terrorism in the 1980s

  Reviews terrorism in the 1970s and foresees its persistence in the 1980s.

  1980

• 

  Report

  Terrorism in the United States

  Surveys levels of terrorism in the United States and concludes that there does not appear to be a major terrorist threat in the United States at the present time.

  1980

• 

  Report

  The Terrorist Mindset and Terrorist Decisionmaking: Two Areas of Ignorance

  This paper identifies two areas of ignorance in the current study of the phenomenon of terrorism: how terrorists think and how terrorist groups make their decisions.

  1979

• 

  Report

  Terrorists Seize Hostages in Arcadia, Laconia Commandos on Alert: A Scenario for Simulation in Negotiations with Terrorists Holding Hostages

  Presents a scenario for simulation in negotiations with terrorists holding hostages.

  1979

• 

  Report

  Traditions and Patterns of Vietnamese History

  This essay, written in 1968, views U.S. involvement in terms of Vietnamese history.

  1979

• 

  Report

  Attributes of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs

  Identifies and describes some of the critical attributes of groups or individuals who might carry out criminal actions against U.S. nuclear programs.

  1978

• 

  Report

  The Fall of South Vietnam: Statements by Vietnamese Military and Civilian Leaders

  A summary of extensive oral and written statements by twenty-seven former high-ranking South Vietnamese military officers and civilians on their perceptions of the causes of the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975.

  1978

• 

  Report

  International Terrorism: Trends and Potentialities

  Reviews recent trends in international terrorism. Terrorist tactics will persist as a mode of political expression even though no terrorist group has yet achieved its stated long-range goals. Bombing will probably remain the most common tactic.

  1978

• 

  Report

  RAND's Research on Terrorism

  Describes the origin, topics, and important findings on terrorism.

  Aug 1, 1977

• 

  Report

  Combatting International Terrorism: The Role of Congress

  Coping with terrorism is not a matter of legislation. It is the ability to respond effectively to a new range of threats, and Congress can promote the development of the necessary instruments to combat terrorism.

  1977

• 

  Report

  Heuristic Modeling Using Rule-Based Computer Systems

  Discusses a recent effort to apply heuristic modeling techniques to the topic of international terrorism.

  1977

• 

  Report

  Numbered Lives: Some Statistical Observations From 77 International Hostage Episodes

  In the following pages we examine 77 international hostage incidents and make a number of observations that are pertinent to the formulation of policy and procedures for handling episodes.

  1977

• 

  Report

  The Potential for Nuclear Terrorism

  The possibility that criminals or political extremists might sabotage nuclear facilities, fabricate a nuclear explosive device, or disperse radioactive material has been the subject of numerous studies.

  1977

• 

  Report

  U.S. Preparation for Future Low-Level Conflict

  Reports a discussion of implications for U.S. security planning of small-scale crises and conflicts, held in October 1976 at RAND.

  1977

• 

  Report

  Hostage Survival: Some Preliminary Observations

  Describes observations on the experience of hostages held by terrorists, based on interviews with 40 former hostages, including American and foreign officials, businessmen kidnapped abroad, and private citizens kidnapped and held for ransom in the U.S.

  1976

• 

  Report

  International Terrorism: A Chronology (1974 Supplement)

  A chronological listing and description of incidents of international terrorism, prepared as a supplement to R-1597, International Terrorism: A Chronology, 1968-1974.

  1976

• 

  Report

  Terrorism and the Nuclear Safeguards Issue

  Terrorism for the most part is not mindless violence. Mass casualties do not serve the terrorists' goals and could alienate the population.

  1976

• 

  Report

  High Technology Terrorism and Surrogate War: The Impact of New Technology on Low-Level Violence

  While official war between nations seems increasingly impractical and unpopular, terrorism—violence for dramatic effect—is flourishing.

  1975

• 

  Report

  Hostages and Their Captors: Friends and Lovers

  Considers the question of why many hostages kidnapped by guerrillas and terrorists develop amiable relations and sometimes affection for the captors who may kill them.

  1975

• 

  Report

  International Terrorism: A Chronology, 1968-1974

  A chronology of incidents of international terrorism that took place between 1968 and 1974. Most of the material is based on press reports, although other sources were used.

  1975

• 

  Report

  Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

  Testimony given before the California State Assembly Committee on Energy and Diminishing Materials regarding the possibility that terrorists might steal fissionable material or nuclear weapons, attack nuclear facilities, or create nuclear hoaxes.

  1975

• 

  Report

  International Terrorism: A New Kind of Warfare

  Terrorism is defined functionally as a campaign of violence designed to inspire fear, carried out by an organization, and devoted to political ends.

  1974

• 

  Report

  Should Corporations Be Prevented from Paying Ransom?

  Invited testimony for the California Assembly Judiciary and Criminal Justice committees on bills forbidding corporations and charitable trusts to pay ransom. Such bills are unlikely to accomplish their intended purpose of discouraging kidnappings.

  1974

• 

  Report

  Soldiers Versus Gunmen: The Challenge of Urban Guerrilla Warfare

  In the late 1960s, the world's revolutionaries moved from rural to urban guerrilla warfare. How have they fared in the first three years of the decade?

  1974

• 

  Report

  Terrorism and Kidnapping

  A discussion of the theory of terrorism, its utility and its effectiveness seen from the terrorists' point of view, the reason for terrorism's increase in the last few years, and some recent and possible future trends.

  1974

• 

  Report

  Terrorism Works--Sometimes

  What is terrorism? Who are the terrorists? What direction will terrorism take in the future? What will the consequences be? The author provides some insights into these four questions.

  1974

• 

  Report

  After the War

  Written as a report which might be filed from Saigon and Hanoi two years from now, a hypothetical scenario of what could happen in Vietnam between now and 1975. A political struggle continues after the ceasefire.

  1973

• 

  Report

  ''A Route for the Enemy To Escape,'' — Hanoi's View of the Ceasefire

  Although Hanoi views American troop withdrawal as a

  1973

• 

  Report

  Forecasting Vietnam's Future: The Next Stage in the War

  How will the Vietnam war end — or not end? A clear-cut victory by either side seems unobtainable now.

  1972

• 

  Report

  Giap and the Seventh Son

  An essay written in April 1972 on General Giap and the North Vietnamese 1972 gamble for a telling victory.

  1972

• 

  Report

  An Urban Strategy for Guerrillas and Governments

  The author synthesizes a five-stage strategy by which urban guerrillas could take over a city, and suggests government countermeasures.

  1972

• 

  Report

  Why the North Vietnamese Will Keep Fighting

  Some factors explaining why the North Vietnamese will probably not abandon the war.

  1972

• 

  Report

  The Five Stages of Urban Guerrilla Warfare: Challenge of the 1970s

  Guerrilla strategy began in the country, but has moved to the city. To a degree, the urbanization of guerrilla warfare signals its failure in the countryside.

  1971

• 

  Report

  A People's Army for South Vietnam: A Vietnamese Solution

  A lack of men, money, and any firm guarantee that the U.S. Congress will continue, for very long, to provide funds to support South Vietnam's defense establishment at current levels makes it imperative for South Vietnam to reduce the economic...

  1971

• 

  Report

  Structure and Strategy for Vietnam in the 1970's

  Study views counterinsurgency in three levels of countertactics: police action; police protection from small squad and platoon-size guerrilla forces; and the containment, dispersal, and destruction of company and larger-size enemy units.

  1970

• 

  Report

  The Unchangeable War

  The Army's entire repertoire of warfare was designed for conventional war in Europe. In Vietnam, the Army simply performed its repertoire even though it was frequently irrelevant to the situation. This report explores these issues.

  1970

• 

  Report

  Why the North Vietnamese Keep Fighting

  The author concludes in this assessment of North Vietnamese war intentions that the arguments for continuing the struggle are too powerful to permit hopeful speculation over a North Vietnamese decision to quit the fight.

  1970

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