Grant Johnson

Senior Analyst

Cambridge Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, UC San Diego; M.A. in economics, UC San Diego; B.A. in mathematics, Northwestern University; B.A. in economics, Northwestern University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact RAND Europe Media Relations at +44 (1223) 353 329, x2560, or email europeanmedia@rand.org.

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Overview

Grant Johnson is a senior analyst at the RAND Corporation. Working primarily in the Defence & Security Research Group at RAND Europe, his work focuses on using modern econometric methods to address policy-relevant questions that often have a dynamic, macroeconomic flavour. He has extensive knowledge of, and experience with, microeconometric, applied macroeconomics and machine learning methods for both causal inference and predictive modelling. His primary research areas are defence economics and military personnel, in particular career analysis and workforce planning. His secondary research areas include intra- and inter-state conflict as well as procurement and defence industrial base issues. Johnson holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) and received B.A. degrees in mathematics and economics from Northwestern University.

Research Focus

Commentary

Critical Infrastructure Protection

U.S. Military Power Comes from More Than Just the Defense Budget
With U.S. domestic challenges ranging from the ongoing pandemic to long-delayed infrastructure investments, now is a good time to consider spending that provides both domestic and national security benefits. Infrastructure spending offers one such example.
May 10, 2021
Defense News

Publications

Report
Quantifying the link between COVID-19, conflict risk, and the global economy
Our research suggests that COVID-19 will significantly increase the risk of civil conflict in African countries. We estimate this effect will, in turn, have negative global repercussions via international trade losses.
Mar 3, 2023
Report
Modeling and Measuring the Effects of Economic Shocks on a Defense Industrial Base
The purpose of this report is to assist Department of Defense decisionmakers called upon to respond to adverse economic shocks by identifying opportunities for improving analysis of shocks and their effects on U.S. defense postures.
Oct 18, 2022
Report
Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence?
The authors evaluate claims about the potential economic benefits of U.S. military engagement and find evidence that U.S. alliances increase bilateral trade in manufactured goods, which has a modest but positive effect on overall U.S. economic welfare.
Sep 1, 2022
Report
Early Predictive Indicators of Contractor Performance: A Data-Analytic Approach
This report presents initial insights and approaches in exploring and prototyping methods to identify potential contractor performance risks for the Department of the Air Force earlier than would be typically reported via traditional methods.
May 12, 2022
Report
How Does Defense Spending Affect Economic Growth?
The authors consider the effect on economic growth if the United States were to reallocate funds from defense to infrastructure spending, change defense spending and apply the difference to public debt, or increase taxes to finance defense spending.
May 7, 2021
Report
Developing Metrics and Scoring Procedures to Support Mitigation Grant Program Decisionmaking
To develop metrics that can inform decisionmaking for awarding predisaster mitigation grants, the authors established three lines of effort (LoEs) for analysis. Each LoE produced a metric or framework that could support grant decisionmaking.
Mar 31, 2021
Report
Assessing the Impact of U.S. Air Force National Security Space Launch Acquisition Decisions: An Independent Analysis of the Global Heavy Lift Launch Market
In this report, authors analyze the global heavy lift launch market to assess how decisions the U.S. Air Force might make in the near term could affect domestic launch providers and the market in general.
Apr 28, 2020