2021-04-23T19:46:09Z Copyright (c) 2021, The RAND Corporation RAND Corporation https://www.rand.org/about/people/k/kaye_dalia_dassa.html Ashley L. Rhoades; Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/04/china-does-not-have-to-be-americas-enemy-in-the-middle.html 2021-04-19T12:15:00Z 2021-04-19T12:15:00Z

China and Iran made a deal in which China promised to boost its investment in Iranian infrastructure in exchange for a steady supply of oil. This uptick in Chinese influence does not necessarily erode U.S. power in the region. The United States may even find overlapping interests with China since both have a stake in containing conflicts and instability.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/04/the-biden-administration-will-find-it-difficult-to.html 2021-04-14T17:15:00Z 2021-04-14T17:15:00Z

Iran is blaming Israel for a blackout at one of its nuclear research facilities. This attack is likely to complicate nuclear diplomacy and further erode trust between Tehran and Washington. Also, it may only incentivize Iran to advance its nuclear program.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/08/why-israel-uae-deal-doesnt-merit-the-hype.html 2020-08-18T15:00:00Z 2020-08-18T15:00:00Z

Some have called the Israel-UAE normalization agreement a geopolitical earthquake. But the hyperbole is not warranted; this deal is unlikely to be a strategic game changer in the Middle East.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/07/an-israeli-escalation-against-iran.html 2020-07-15T19:00:00Z 2020-07-15T19:00:00Z

Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.

Nilsu Goren; Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/07/a-way-forward-for-the-united-states-and-turkey.html 2020-07-09T20:00:00Z 2020-07-09T20:00:00Z

Relations between the United States and Turkey, while fraught with tension, must also align with a mutual interest in stability in the Middle East and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. It may be important for the region's stability and prosperity to find constructive ways for the United States to work with Turkey in the years ahead.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-impacts-on-strategic-dynamics-in-the-middle.html 2020-03-26T13:45:00Z 2020-03-26T13:45:00Z

The pandemic is sure to have transformational effects everywhere, and the Middle East is no exception. But it's unlikely that the crisis will lead to new regional strategic dynamics. Rather, it's more likely to reinforce existing and largely negative trend lines.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/02/peace-with-the-region-is-not-a-peace-plan.html 2020-02-13T12:10:00Z 2020-02-13T12:10:00Z

Acceptance of Israel from the broader Arab world will not resolve the dilemma of how the Israelis and the Palestinians can agree to live on the same land together. A viable plan for the future, one that is about real peace and not a one-sided political gambit, must recognize these realities.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/12/with-chaos-in-the-streets-of-iran-heres-how-the-us.html 2019-12-03T18:30:00Z 2019-12-03T18:30:00Z

The Iranian people deserve American support. But current U.S. policies are hurting the cause that Iranians are fighting for while failing to achieve any strategic objectives.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/09/israels-war-with-iran-may-be-going-too-far.html 2019-09-16T17:15:00Z 2019-09-16T17:15:00Z

Israel has a right to defend itself from Iranian threats to its country. American leaders should consider balancing support for Israel's efforts to counter Iran with firm redlines about activities negatively impacting American interests.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/06/the-costs-of-confrontation-with-iran-are-mounting.html 2019-06-17T15:35:00Z 2019-06-17T15:35:00Z

Even if the United States and Iran avoid a direct military clash, recent escalation and the U.S. maximum pressure campaign are exacting long-term costs for U.S. interests and regional stability in ways that may be difficult if not impossible to reverse.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/02/the-warsaw-summit-is-no-madrid.html 2019-02-13T12:45:00Z 2019-02-13T12:45:00Z

The peace process begun in Madrid nearly 30 years ago showed promise, but ultimately stalled, and will need rethinking to adapt to today's Middle East. The world could use a worthy successor. The Warsaw summit probably isn't it.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/01/helping-lebanon-succeed-is-more-than-about-countering.html 2019-01-16T19:00:00Z 2019-01-16T19:00:00Z

As tensions increase on the Israeli-Lebanese border the possibility is growing that a confrontation with Iran may move from Syria to Lebanon. For the United States, turning its back on this small but strategically critical country and conflating U.S. interests in Lebanon solely with countering Iran could be short-sighted, and a missed opportunity at a time when the region has few.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/08/bringing-back-sanctions-will-hurt-us-allies-and-iran.html 2018-08-07T13:07:00Z 2018-08-07T13:07:00Z

What happens if leaving the Iran nuclear deal and applying “maximum pressure” doesn't lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse? The Trump administration may find that it's much easier to break a deal than to replace it with something better.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/05/the-strategic-fallout-of-us-withdrawal-from-the-iran.html 2018-05-10T10:57:00Z 2018-05-10T10:57:00Z

President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.

Dalia Dassa Kaye; James Dobbins https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/03/can-europe-save-the-iran-nuclear-deal.html 2018-03-12T13:10:00Z 2018-03-12T13:10:00Z

In mid-January, President Trump threatened to withdraw from the Iran agreement if Europe does not “fix” it within four months. There are viable steps Europe could take to address Trump's concerns about the deal — on missile development, inspections, and sunset clauses. However, if the U.S. withdraws, Europe could still work with other international powers to keep the deal alive.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/12/what-to-make-of-trumps-decision-on-jerusalem.html 2017-12-28T17:15:00Z 2017-12-28T17:15:00Z

While the Israeli-Palestinian issue is not a high priority in the Arab world today with all the other turmoil engulfing the region, not even the Trump administration's closest allies support the president's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital. And it risks inflaming regional tension and increasing anti-American sentiment.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/10/decertifying-the-iran-nuclear-deal-would-not-increase.html 2017-10-05T10:17:00Z 2017-10-05T10:17:00Z

The Iran nuclear agreement is not perfect, but it is working. Iran is no longer on the brink of being able to produce a nuclear weapon as it was two years ago. The suggestion that decertifying would increase U.S. leverage to renegotiate and strengthen the agreement is unrealistic.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/08/state-competition-not-sectarianism-key-driver-of-middle-east.html 2017-08-03T14:00:00Z 2017-08-03T14:00:00Z

Sectarianism is real and dangerous in the Middle East, but the region is more complicated. The next leaders in Iran and Saudi Arabia, under pressure from youthful populations and worsening economic challenges, may no longer see value in a costly sectarian agenda.

Dalia Dassa Kaye; Jeffrey Martini https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/06/time-for-quiet-diplomacy-not-taking-sides.html 2017-06-07T15:50:00Z 2017-06-07T15:50:00Z

Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.

Dalia Dassa Kaye https://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2017/04/what-to-expect-in-the-middle-east-qa-with-dalia-dassa.html 2017-04-24T17:30:00Z 2017-04-24T17:30:00Z

Dalia Dassa Kaye explains why there's more to the Middle East than what appears in daily headlines, how RAND is working to help people in the region, and more.