Eric V. Larson

Senior Policy Researcher; Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee-RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. and M.Phil. in policy analysis, RAND Graduate School; A.B. in political science, University of Michigan

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Eric V. Larson is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation with over 30 years of government and research experience in national security, defense. foreign affairs, intelligence, and homeland security analysis, including influence operations, the analysis of extremist and conspiratorial movements, public opinion and media analysis, and the application of advanced methodologies and technologies to policy analysis.

Prior to joining RAND, Larson worked in the Executive Office of the President (1980–83), at the National Security Council Staff (1983–87), and at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA, 1987–89).

Larson’s recent publications include: U.S. Army North in the Hurricane Maria Response, 2020; Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning, 2019; Social Media and the Army: Implications for Outreach and Recruiting, 2019; Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict, 2018; Evaluating the Army's Ability to Regenerate: History and Future Options, 2017; Convergent and Divergent U.S.-China Interests: Designing “Win-Win” Portfolios, 2016; Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces, 2016; Closing the Strategy-Policy Gap in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2014; Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, RAND, 2012; China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment, RAND, 2011; “Al Qaeda's Propaganda: A Shifting Battlefield,” in The Long Shadow of 9/11, RAND, 2011, Assessing Irregular Warfare, RAND, 2009; and Foundations of Effective Influence Operations, RAND, 2009.

He earned an M.Phil and Ph.D. in policy analysis from the RAND Graduate School, and an A.B. in political science from the University of Michigan.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

U.S. Army North in the Hurricane Maria Response
Force Planning Scenarios, 1945-2016
Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict
Leveraging Technology to Enhance the Effectiveness of Army Recruiting by Connecting with America's Youth
Considerations for Integrating Women Into Closed Occupations in the U.S. Special Operations Forces

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: ABC; Chicago Tribune; China Jiangsu TV; Christian Science Monitor; Financial Times; The Guardian; Los Angeles Times; NBC; New York Times; Newsday; Reuters; Salon; Taiwan Central News Agency; Wall Street Journal; Washington Post; Yazhou Zhoukan (China)

Publications

Report
U.S. Army North in the Hurricane Maria Response
This report addresses questions from U.S. Army North about the assistance it provided to civilian disaster-response operations in the wake of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 1997.
Mar 10, 2020
Report
Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning
This report presents a historical review of defense strategic planning, with a focus on the factors that have shaped defense planning scenarios and strategic analysis in the Department of Defense in an aim to improve scenario use in defense planning.
Sep 5, 2019
Report
Social Media and the Army: Implications for Outreach and Recruiting
Social media platforms play a key role in the U.S. Army's outreach and recruiting efforts. The authors analyzed these efforts to see if and how potential recruits and others are engaging with the Army's content and offer related recommendations.
Jun 3, 2019
Report
The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process: Components and Challenges
This report explores the current defense planning process used by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a focus on how scenarios are developed and employed to support defense planning.
Feb 4, 2019
Report
Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict: A Comparative Analysis of the 2001–2014 Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and Implications for the Army — Executive Summary
This summary highlights findings from a comparative analysis of the four Quadrennial Defense Reviews conducted after 1997, identifying trends, implications, and recommendations for the Army and Defense Department to help improve future reviews.
Jan 31, 2018
Report
Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict: A Comparative Analysis of the 2001–2014 Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and Implications for the Army
This report presents a comparative historical analysis of the four Quadrennial Defense Reviews (QDRs) conducted after 1997 and identifies trends, implications, and recommendations for the Army and Defense Department to help improve future reviews.
Jan 31, 2018
Research Brief
Assessing the Army's Ability to Regenerate Its Active Component End Strength
This analysis modeled the Army's ability to increase ("regenerate") its active component end strength over five years -- starting from end strengths of 450,000 and 420,000 -- to provide the number of deployable troops available in 2010.
May 3, 2017
Report
Evaluating the Army's Ability to Regenerate: History and Future Options
This analysis modeled the Army's ability to increase ("regenerate") its active component end strength over five years -- starting from end strengths of 450,000 and 420,000 -- to provide the number of deployable troops available in 2010.
May 3, 2017
Draft
Convergent and Divergent U.S.-China Interests: Designing "Win-Win" Portfolios: Test of Concept
Develops several portfolios of possible deals, bargains, or arrangements between the U.S. and China that can produce "win-win" outcomes that both sides would view as preferable to present circumstances.
Mar 8, 2016
Report
Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces
This report assesses challenges for unit cohesion from integrating women into special operations forces and provides analytical support for validating occupational standards for positions controlled by U.S. Special Operations Command.
Dec 16, 2015
Research Brief
Closing the Strategy-Policy Gap in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction
Two presidents have declared counterproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) a top national priority, but it has not been budgeted or resourced as such. This brief summarizes ground force capacities and capabilities needed to eliminate WMD.
Sep 24, 2014
Report
Strategy-Policy Mismatch: How the U.S. Army Can Help Close Gaps in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction
Two presidents have declared counterproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) a top national priority, but it has not been budgeted or resourced as such. This report analyzes ground force capacities and capabilities needed to eliminate WMD.
Sep 24, 2014
Tool
Vulnerability Assessment Method Pocket Guide: A Tool for Center of Gravity Analysis
This pocket guide describes a process for identifying adversary, friendly, and other key stakeholder centers of gravity to support the development of plans that will exploit adversary vulnerabilities while protecting friendly ones.
Aug 14, 2014
Report
Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism
Drawing on social science and particularly social movement theory, presents and tests empirically a conceptual model of public support for insurgency and terrorism and discusses how it can inform counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategy.
Jul 31, 2012
Research Brief
Addressing Commanders' Needs for Information on "Soft" Factors
Describes a framework for thinking about commanders' critical information needs in countersurgency operations and offers practical ways for commanders to integrate influence activities into combined arms planning and assessment.
Dec 5, 2011
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011
Stories discuss America after 9/11, Afghan-based solutions, Al Qaeda's narrative, air passenger security, victim compensation, military families, health insurance, entrepreneurship, unemployment, sex, Katrina families, Arab Spring, and a new RAND.
Sep 1, 2011
Report
China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment
Assesses the relative prospects of India and China through 2025 in four domains: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology, and defense spending and procurement.
Aug 22, 2011
Report
The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism
In a series of essays, this book addresses the question of how America has responded in the ten years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks and suggests options for more effectively dealing with the terrorist threat in the future.
Jul 26, 2011
Research Brief
Sexual Orientation and U.S. Personnel Policy Revisited
Summarizes results of a RAND Corporation study on sexual orientation and U.S. military policy requested by the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Secretary of Defense in order to weigh repeal of the law known as "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."
Dec 23, 2010
Report
Sexual Orientation and U.S. Military Personnel Policy: An Update of RAND's 1993 Study
Shares results of a study on sexual orientation and U.S. military policy, requested by the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Secretary of Defense in order to weigh the repeal of the law known as ''Don't Ask, Don't Tell.''
Nov 18, 2010
Report
Understanding Commanders' Information Needs for Influence Operations
Describes a study aimed at understanding commanders' information requirements for ''soft'' factors to improve combined arms operations' efficacy and develop ways to integrate information and influence operations into combined arms planning/assessment.
Oct 28, 2009
Report
Foundations of Effective Influence Operations: A Framework for Enhancing Army Capabilities
Aims to assist the U.S. Army in understanding
May 27, 2009
Report
Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for a subsequent IW intelligence analysis curriculum development effort.
Dec 11, 2008
Research Brief
As Enemies Put Innocents at Risk, U.S. Military Must Continue Efforts to Minimize Civilian Deaths and Be Positioned to Better Inform the Public When Casualties Do Occur
This research brief describes the use of civilians as human shields by U.S. enemies and discusses how the U.S. military must continue efforts to minimize civilian deaths and to be positioned to better inform the public when casualties do occur.
2007
Journal Article
George Michael, The Enemy of My Enemy: The Alarming Convergence of Militant Islam and the Extreme Right [Book] Review]
Book review of George Michael: The Enemy of My Enemy: The Alarming Convergence of Militant Islam and the Extreme Right
2007
Report
Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime
Analyzes U.S. and foreign press, public, and leadership reactions to four civilian casualty incidents and how these incidents affect media reporting or public support for military operations.
Dec 21, 2006
Journal Article
Arms Control and CSBMs in a Korean Peace Regime: A U.S. Perspective
The author addresses strategies and prospects for peace on the Korean Peninsula, prospects for arms control and the peace process involving the two Koreas and the U.S., and the future of U.S.-China relations.
2006
Report
American Public Support for U.S. Military Operations from Mogadishu to Baghdad
Describes American public opinion toward wars and other large military operations over the last decade.
Mar 15, 2005
Report
Ambivalent Allies? A Study of South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S.
Have South Korean attitudes toward the United States deteriorated? To answer this question, RAND researchers compiled and analyzed South Korean public opinion data from the past decade.
Dec 13, 2004
Report
American Public Support for U.S. Military Operations from Mogadishu to Baghdad: Technical Appendixes
Technical appendixes for a study that describes American public opinion toward the use of military force in support of the global war on terrorism.
Dec 13, 2004
Report
Past and Future: Insights for Reserve Component Use
Documents the background information, research, and analysis RAND was asked to provide in support of a comprehensive Department of Defense Review of the roles and missions of the Reserve Components.
Dec 13, 2004
Report
Near-Term Options for Improving Security at Los Angeles International Airport
Examining near-term options for reducing the terrorist threat to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), this study assesses LAX’s vulnerability to a wide range of possible terrorist actions and examines possible alternative courses of action.
Sep 23, 2004
Report
Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long-Term Strategy
How does the Army plan to ensure its continued access to potential trouble spots around the world?
Sep 15, 2004
Report
Interoperability of U.S. and NATO Allied Air Forces: Supporting Data and Case Studies
Background information for a larger RAND study entitled Interoperability: A Continuing Challenge in Coalition Air Operations, including supporting aggregate data and detailed case-study analyses.
2004
Research Brief
Interoperability of Coalition Air Forces: Lessons Learned from U.S. Operations with NATO Allies
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) studied recent coalition air operations in Southwest Asia, the Balkans, and Africa to derive lessons for improving NATO interoperability.
2004
Report
Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals
Takes a first cut at identifying metrics for evaluating, advancing, and monitoring progress toward attaining the six operational goals highlighted in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review.
2003
Report
Building a New Foundation for Innovation: Results of a Workshop for the National Science Foundation
This study reports the efforts of a workshop to build partnerships between universities, industry, and governments.
2002
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002
Surveys RAND research conducted since Sept. 11, 2001, that examines the dimensions of the terrorist threat and potential responses to it, and issues such as global priorities, oversees deployments, homeland security, and state and local initiatives.
2002
Report
Review of Steven Kull and I.M. Destler, Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism
Review of Steven Kull and I.M. Destler, Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism
2002
Report
Preparing the U.S. Army for Homeland Security: Concepts, Issues, and Options
The authors define homeland security and its mission areas, provide a methodology for assessing homeland security response options, and review relevant trend data for each mission area.
2001
Report
The California Wellness Foundation’s Violence Prevention Initiative Findings from an Evaluation of the First Five Years
So what happened as a result of the first five years of the VPI?
2001
Report
Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the Base Force, Bottom-Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review
This report describes the challenges policymakers have faced as seen through the lens of the three major force structure reviews that have taken place over the past decade.
2001
Research Brief
Balancing Strategy, Forces, and Resources: Lessons for the Current Defense Review
Change in the international environment and the nature of threats to U.S. interests-as well as the size of defense budgets-have placed tremendous strain on the U.S. policymakers who sought to achieve a balance between strategy, forces, and resources.
2001
Report
Interoperability: A Continuing Challenge in Coalition Air Operations
Because interoperability is a key element in coalitions, RAND undertook research to help the Air Force identify potential interoperability problems that may arise in coalition air operations and to suggest nonmateriel and technology-based solutions.
2000
Report
The Economic Costs and Implications of High-Technology Hardware Theft
This report presents the results of a study undertaken at the request of the American Electronics Association and a consortium of high-tech industries.
1999
Report
Air Power as a Coercive Instrument
Examines the phenomenon of coercion and how air power can contribute to its success. Three factors increase the likelihood of successful coercion.
1999
Report
Futures Intelligence: Assessing Intelligence Support to Three Army Long-Range Planning Communities
Examines the intelligence needs of three groups of Army long-range planners — strategic planners, force developers, and acquisition — and considers the potential of Army intelligence to satisfy these needs.
1998
Report
New Forces at Work: Industry Views Critical Technologies
Explores the question of what ''critical technology'' means and presents and analyzes interviewees' responses to what technologies they consider to be critical to their firm or industry.
1998
Report
Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic Support for U.S. Military Operations
Most Americans do not want lives to be sacrificed for any but the most compelling and promising causes, and they rely on their leaders to illuminate just how compelling and promising these causes are.
1996
Dissertation
Ends and Means in the Democratic Conversation: Understanding the Role of Casualties in Support for U.S. Military Operations
This dissertation addresses the role of casualties in public support for and attitudes toward such military interventions.
1996
Research Brief
Public Support for U.S. Military Operations
Study demonstrates that public support for U.S. military operations and public tolerance for casualties are based on a sensible weighing of benefits and costs that is influenced heavily by consensus (or its absence) among political leaders.
1996
Report
The Decisionmaking Context in the Department of the Navy: A Primer for Cost Analysts
Provides the cost analyst with an introduction to the Department of the Navy and focuses on those characteristics that are most important to understanding the DON's two major resource-allocation processes: budgeting & (RDA).
1994
Report
A New Methodology for Assessing Multilayer Missile Defense Options
1994
Report
Report of a Workshop on Expanding U.S. Air Force Non-Combat Mission Capabilities
Report of a Workshop on Expanding U.S. Air Force Non-Combat Mission Capabilities
1993
Report
Cost Factors in the Army: Volume 2 - Factors, Methods, and Models
Presents partial findings from the DoD Cost Factor Project. Volume 1 (R-4078/2-PA&E) describes the Army decisionmaking process, and this volume describes data sources and methods used to develop cost factors.
1992
Report
Technological Risk: The Case of the Tomahawk Cruise Missile
Examines the Tomahawk cruise missile program to evaluate the proposition that successful management of the research, development, and acquisition of a major weapon system depends partly on using evolutionary rather than ...
1990