Christopher Paul

Overview

Commentary

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  National Security Organizations

  The Irony of Misinformation: USIA Myths Block Enduring Solutions

  Unlike Russia and China, the U.S. government has failed to institutionalize the importance of information in foreign policy. The United States lacks formalized leadership structures to tackle information issues head on, and a central organization to coordinate activities to understand, inform, and influence foreign audiences.

  Jul 7, 2022

  1945

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  Information Operations

  Don't Sleep on Russian Information War Capabilities

  Ukraine looks to have Russia beat in countering Russian disinformation. But this is only part of the story. Instead of fixating on Russia's missteps, policymakers and analysts would benefit from studying Ukraine's sophisticated information campaign while bearing in mind that Russia retains significant information warfare capabilities and a willingness to use them.

  Apr 5, 2022

  Defense One

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  China

  How China Plays by Different Rules—at Everyone Else's Expense

  A single Chinese state-run firm has secured a controlling interest in at least 33 radio stations in 14 countries. But there is virtually no opportunity for foreign ownership, input, or influence in the Chinese media marketplace. This inequity presents U.S. leaders with an opportunity: Unless China opens its media marketplace to foreign investment and ownership, its firms should be forced to divest their American holdings.

  Feb 7, 2022

  The Hill

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  Social Media Analysis

  Platforms Should Use Algorithms to Help Users Help Themselves

  Social media users generate massive volumes of content, which then spreads at extraordinary speeds. Yet platforms generally rely on a slow process of human moderation to remove prohibited content. What if moderation could happen before the content is even posted?

  Jul 20, 2021

  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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  Joint Operations

  Two Vignettes: How Might Combat Operations Be Different Under the Information Joint Function?

  RAND researcher Christopher Paul employs storytelling to illustrate two distinct approaches to Joint Combat Operations. While both vignettes result in the expulsion of adversary forces and the restoration of territorial integrity, they take different approaches to kinetic and informational power.

  Oct 8, 2020

  Mad Scientist Laboratory Blog

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  Information Operations

  Artificial Intelligence and the Manufacturing of Reality

  Humans carry flaws in deciding what is or is not real. The internet and other technologies have made it easier to weaponize and exploit these flaws. And artificial intelligence will likely be used to exploit these weaknesses at an unprecedented scale, speed, and level of effectiveness.

  Jan 20, 2020

  Strategy Bridge

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  Information Operations

  Is It Time to Abandon the Term Information Operations?

  Operations in the information environment will be a critical part of future joint force operations and should be baked in to those operations as a fully valued tool in commanders' combined arms toolboxes. Reaching that goal will require greater acceptance and understanding of information across the joint force, new structures for information forces, and the evolution of how operations in the information environment are handled within the staff.

  Mar 13, 2019

  Strategy Bridge

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  Information Operations

  Free Lunches for Adversaries

  When leaders take actions that are unpopular with wide audiences, propagandists have it easy. While Western leaders should not make propaganda potential the primary factor when weighing policy decisions, neither should they wholly disregard the opportunities that unpopular policies will offer adversaries.

  Feb 13, 2018

  U.S. News & World Report

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  Cybersecurity

  How the Pentagon Should Deter Cyber Attacks

  Foreign hackers are not afraid to launch attacks on the United States in cyberspace that they would not dare risk in a real theater of war. As cyber aggression gets worse and more brazen, the U.S. must figure out how to deter foreign actors in cyberspace as effectively as it does in nuclear and conventional warfare.

  Jan 10, 2018

  Strategy Bridge

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  Russia

  Russian Propaganda Is Pervasive, and America Is Behind the Power Curve in Countering It

  Even as Washington pursues cooperation with Moscow on Syria and other issues, America should expose Russia's obsession with propaganda and disinformation.

  Sep 13, 2016

  U.S. News & World Report

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  Global Security

  Inciting Peace

  Malicious ideas, ideologies, and narratives (such as those promoted by ISIS) cannot just be eliminated — they need to be replaced.

  Mar 30, 2016

  Foreign Policy Concepts

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  Asymmetric Warfare

  A Broad Approach to Countering the Islamic State

  Recent analysis about how to defeat the Islamic State tends to be based on no more than intuition, a general sense of history, or a small number of cases of questionable comparability. A study of 71 historical cases of counterinsurgencies should help provide empirical evidence to this important debate.

  Sep 2, 2014

  The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog

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  Military Strategy

  Paths to Victory in the Australian Defence and Security Context

  The historical importance of commitment and motivation and the need to overmatch insurgents suggest that Australia should weigh any commitment of support against existing conditions, those that can be changed and those that can't, writes Christopher Paul.

  Oct 2, 2013

  The Strategist

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  Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

  History Favors More Time

  The Afghans will have better prospects for defeating their insurgency with continued improvement, of course, and the United States can contribute to that improvement while American forces remain, writes Christopher Paul.

  Apr 3, 2012

  NYTimes.com

• 
  International Diplomacy

  Find the Right Balance Between Civilian and Military: Don't Just Strip the DoD of Capabilities to Inform, Influence, and Persuade

  All parties would like to see greater U.S. capability to inform, influence, and persuade abroad, with the Department of State as the robust leader of American public diplomacy and the Department of Defense as a valued and supporting partner, writes Christopher Paul.

  Oct 31, 2010

  MountainRunner Institute

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  Information Operations

  Psychological Operations by Another Name Are Sweeter

  The Department of Defense has decided to change the name of military psychological operations (PSYOP) and this is a good thing, writes Christopher Paul.

  Jul 29, 2010

  Small Wars Journal

• 
  International Diplomacy

  Rethink Washington's 'War of Ideas'

  The term

  Jun 2, 2009

  The Christian Science Monitor

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  Ad Men for U.S. Defense

  Improving the U.S. military's brand identity demands more than just a catchy new slogan. While communications can help explain U.S. policies, the behavior of every soldier, sailor, airman and marine is what ultimately determines how civilians view U.S. forces, write Todd Helmus, Russell Glenn and Christopher Paul in a commentary appearing in United Press International.

  Aug 20, 2007

  United Press International

Publications

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  Report

  The Role of Information in U.S. Concepts for Strategic Competition

  A detailed enumeration of activities, a synthesis of expert consensus on challenges to gray zone competition, and a dynamic menu of solutions can enhance the U.S. competitive position in the gray zone and beyond.

  Oct 25, 2022

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  Report

  A Guide to Extreme Competition with China

  The U.S.-China competitive dynamic is at a critical crossroads. Policymakers can benefit from a new framework for thinking about this challenge and realistic and actionable recommendations that are sensitive to the limits of U.S. competitiveness.

  Dec 1, 2021

• 

  Tool

  Command Narrative Smart Guide

  This quick reference provides the big-picture basics for successful command narrative development and deployment.

  Nov 15, 2021

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  Report

  Developing, Disseminating, and Assessing Command Narrative: Anchoring Command Efforts on a Coherent Story

  Drawing on the scientific literature and lessons learned from the joint force, the authors of this report describe best practices for the effective use of command narrative.

  Nov 15, 2021

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  Tool

  Handbook for Tactical Operations in the Information Environment

  With its quick-reference format and series of illustrative vignettes, this handbook facilitates problem-solving and highlights how early-career officers in tactical units can contribute to operations in the information environment.

  Oct 4, 2021

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  Tool

  The Information Warfighter Exercise Wargame: Rulebook

  This document presents the full ruleset for the Information Warfighter Exercise Wargame, which is used by the Marine Corps to provide training for aspects of operations in the information environment.

  Aug 24, 2021

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  Report

  Understanding and Defending Against Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts in Europe

  The authors describe apparent efforts by Russia and its agents to use information to shape Russia's operating environment, and they identify possible defensive approaches for United States European Command and its partners.

  Aug 16, 2021

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  Journal Article

  The Evolution of Special Operations as a Model for Information Forces

  This article draws an analogy between special operations and information forces and suggests the history and evolution of SOF could serve as a model and provide lessons for the development of information forces.

  Feb 19, 2021

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  Research Brief

  Improving Intelligence Support for Operations in the Information Environment

  Challenges to effective intelligence support for operations in the information environment (OIE) can be addressed by improving processes, prioritizing support for OIE, training and educating personnel, and optimally allocating personnel.

  Dec 9, 2020

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  Report

  Intelligence Support for Operations in the Information Environment: Dividing Roles and Responsibilities Between Intelligence and Information Professionals

  Operations in the information environment require close coordination between intelligence and information operations personnel, but this does not often occur in practice. A review of these challenges highlighted a range of potential solutions.

  Dec 9, 2020

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  Report

  Frameworks for Assessing USEUCOM Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade

  It can be challenging to assess the progress, performance, and effectiveness of efforts to inform, influence, and persuade in support of U.S. national security objectives. This report presents robust and flexible frameworks to enhance assessment.

  Jul 2, 2020

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  Report

  Opportunities for Including the Information Environment in U.S. Marine Corps Wargames

  An examination of requirements, principles from military theory, current doctrine, and wargaming practices points to solutions and changes to game mechanics to better incorporate the information environment into wargames.

  Jul 1, 2020

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  Journal Article

  Decoding Crimea: Pinpointing the Influence Strategies of Modern Information Warfare

  For this paper we write about information in warfare from the perspective of Strategic Communications (StratCom) and the pursuits of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence.

  2020

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  Journal Article

  Understanding and Pursuing Information Advantage

  This article tries to unpack the concept of "information advantage" and explore what it might mean and how it should be thought about by the U.S. Army and the joint force more broadly.

  2020

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  Journal Article

  Homo Narratus (The Storytelling Species): The Challenge (and Importance) of Modeling Narrative in Human Understanding

  This chapter describes narrative-related research for the US Marine Corps and then highlights corresponding challenges for social-behavioral modeling.

  Jun 11, 2019

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  Report

  Improving C2 and Situational Awareness for Operations in and Through the Information Environment

  Every military activity has informational aspects, but the information environment (IE) is not well integrated into military planning, doctrine, or processes. Better understanding of the IE will improve command and control and situational awareness.

  Nov 1, 2018

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  Research Brief

  Requirements for Better C2 and Situational Awareness of the Information Environment

  Every military activity has informational aspects, but the information environment (IE) is not well integrated into military planning, doctrine, or processes. Better understanding of the IE will improve command and control and situational awareness.

  Nov 1, 2018

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  Report

  The Language of Inform, Influence, and Persuade: Assessment Lexicon and Usage Guide for U.S. European Command Efforts

  Inconsistency in how assessment is discussed can lead to confusion, miscommunication, and the appearance of agreement or disagreement when the opposite is true. RAND researchers developed this lexicon and usage guide to help combat this problem.

  Oct 18, 2018

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  Report

  National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't

  In this report, RAND researchers propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that shape a national government's decision to continue or end military and other operations during a conflict (i.e., national will to fight).

  Sep 20, 2018

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  Report

  Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment

  An examination of the evolution of both allied and adversary use of information power, alongside a comparative analysis of capability areas in which these others excel, can guide future U.S. Army force planning.

  Jun 7, 2018

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  Report

  Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment: Case Studies

  Twelve detailed case studies examine of the activities and strategic goals of allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries in and through the information environment, highlighting insights for U.S. Army planning.

  Jun 7, 2018

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  Journal Article

  Paradigm Change: Operational Art and the Information Joint Function

  The potential benefit of information as a joint function is clear. Commanders could measure campaign success by evaluating emergent behavior of relevant actors defining strategic outcomes rather than focusing too intently on the physics of fighting.

  May 2, 2018

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  Report

  Monitoring Social Media: Lessons for Future Department of Defense Social Media Analysis in Support of Information Operations

  To support the U.S. Department of Defense in expanding its capacity for social media analysis, this report reviews the analytic approaches that will be most valuable for information operations and considerations for implementation.

  Jun 14, 2017

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  Report

  Dominating Duffer's Domain: Lessons for the U.S. Marine Corps Information Operations Practitioner

  To support the U.S. Marine Corps and its curriculum for information operations personnel, RAND has adapted the premise of the military classic The Defence of Duffer's Drift for a modern-day audience of Marine Corps officers.

  Apr 20, 2017

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  Report

  Dominating Duffer's Domain: Lessons for the U.S. Army Information Operations Practitioner

  Adapting the format of military classic, The Defence of Duffer's Drift, this report analyzes alternative courses of action in the same hypothetical mission in order to derive lessons about integrating information operations into operational planning.

  Apr 20, 2017

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  Report

  Tactical Cyber: Building a Strategy for Cyber Support to Corps and Below

  This report proposes a strategy for tactical Army cyber operations, enumerating overarching goals, objectives, and associated activities. Instructive case studies are provided that support implementation of the strategy.

  Mar 28, 2017

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  Report

  Assessing and Evaluating Department of Defense Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade: Worked Example

  This report presents a realistic but fictional scenario as context for how assessment planning for inform, influence, and persuade efforts should work in practice, demonstrating core principles and best practices for developing effective assessments.

  Mar 22, 2017

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  Journal Article

  On Strategic Communications Today: Enhancing US Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade

  Capabilities to inform, influence, and persuade are necessary both for national security success and as a cost-effective toolset relative to physical military power.

  Dec 14, 2016

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  Journal Article

  Moving Beyond Population-Centric Vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

  Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future.

  Oct 31, 2016

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  Report

  Identifying Future Disease Hot Spots: Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index

  The Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index is intended to inform actions for preparedness and response to infectious disease outbreaks and foster greater resiliency of national health systems worldwide.

  Sep 12, 2016

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  Report

  The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It

  Since its 2008 incursion into Georgia, there has been a remarkable evolution in Russia's approach to propaganda. Effective solutions can be found in the same psychology literature that explains the Russian propaganda model's surprising success.

  Jul 11, 2016

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  Journal Article

  Confessions of a Hybrid Warfare Skeptic

  The vocabulary of hybrid warfare and hybrid threat has been adopted fairly widely, including formal use in NATO discussions and across the U.S. Army, U.S. Marine Corps, and U.S. Special Operations Command.

  Mar 10, 2016

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  Report

  Counterinsurgency Scorecard Update: Afghanistan in Early 2015 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II

  Previous RAND research on historical insurgencies found that a conflict's overall balance of good and bad factors and practices corresponded perfectly with its outcome. A RAND study applied this scorecard approach to Afghanistan in 2015.

  Feb 4, 2016

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  Journal Article

  Assessing Against and Moving Past the "Funnel" Model of Counterterrorism Communication

  Through numerous forms of media, terrorists are embracing new opportunities to spread the psychological impact of terrorism throughout the world. This article discusses the promise and challenges of counterterrorism communication efforts.

  2016

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  Journal Article

  Assessing and Evaluating DoD Inform, Influence, and Persuade Efforts: Guidance for Practitioners

  This article aims to establish effective principles and best practices for the assessment of IIP efforts from across sectors and distill them for future application in DoD.

  Oct 22, 2015

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  Testimony

  What Works Best When Conducting Security Cooperation?

  Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on October 21, 2015.

  Oct 21, 2015

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  Report

  A Building Partner Capacity Assessment Framework: Tracking Inputs, Outputs, Outcomes, Disrupters, and Workarounds

  This report presents a framework intended to help with planning for building partner capacity events, monitoring progress while the effort is in progress, and assessing results.

  Aug 21, 2015

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  Report

  What Works Best When Building Partner Capacity in Challenging Contexts?

  This report explores what the United States can do in challenging capacity-building contexts to maximize prospects for success, focusing on potential challenges and workarounds and deriving recommendations for future engagements.

  Aug 21, 2015

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  Journal Article

  Assessing and Evaluating DoD Inform, Influence, and Persuade Efforts: Guidance for Practitioners

  The Most Informative Results for DoD IIP Efforts Come from the Intersection of Academic Evaluation and Public Communications.

  Jul 8, 2015

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  Report

  Assessing and Evaluating Department of Defense Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade: An Annotated Reading List

  To help broaden the expertise of U.S. Department of Defense assessment personnel and stakeholders, RAND produced a reading list for self-study in best assessment practices across a range of sectors.

  Apr 17, 2015

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  Report

  Assessing and Evaluating Department of Defense Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade: Desk Reference

  The U.S. Department of Defense has struggled to assess the progress and effectiveness of its information operations. Best practices across sectors can guide the assessment of these activities and ensure that they help meet national security goals.

  Apr 17, 2015

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  Report

  Assessing and Evaluating Department of Defense Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade: Handbook for Practitioners

  This handbook compiles strong assessment practices and examples from a range of sectors in an easy-to-navigate format for personnel responsible for planning and assessing inform, influence, and persuade efforts in the U.S. Department of Defense.

  Apr 17, 2015

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  Report

  The Other Quiet Professionals: Lessons for Future Cyber Forces from the Evolution of Special Forces

  A review of commonalities, similarities, and differences between the still-nascent U.S. cyber force and early U.S. special operations forces, conducted in 2010, offers salient lessons for the future direction of U.S. cyber forces.

  Oct 3, 2014

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  Journal Article

  A Promising Thaw

  The relationship between New Zealand and the United States has seen ups and downs over the past 60 years, but the two countries have entered a new era characterized by the ability to agree to disagree.

  Sep 1, 2014

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  Report

  Assessing Locally Focused Stability Operations

  This report describes how to best measure and assess the progress and outcomes of locally focused stability operations -- the missions, tasks, and activities that create stability by building security, governance, and development in a community.

  Aug 21, 2014

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  Research Brief

  Best Practices for Assessing Locally Focused Stability Operations

  Locally focused stability operations (LFSO) to build security, development, and governance are difficult to assess because of the complexity of operational environments. This brief outlines creation of an assessment plan for a notional LFSO scenario.

  Aug 21, 2014

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  Report

  Mexico Is Not Colombia: Alternative Historical Analogies for Responding to the Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations

  Although there is no perfectly analogous case to Mexico's current security situation, policymakers stand to benefit from historical lessons and efforts correlated with improvement in countries facing challenges related to violence and corruption.

  May 5, 2014

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  Report

  Mexico Is Not Colombia: Alternative Historical Analogies for Responding to the Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations — Supporting Case Studies

  Although there is no perfectly analogous case to Mexico's current security situation, historical case studies may offer lessons for policymakers as they cope with challenges related to violence and corruption in that country.

  May 5, 2014

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  Research Brief

  Lessons for a Negotiated Settlement in Afghanistan — If History Serves as a Guide

  Historical insurgencies that ended in settlement after a stalemate have generally followed a seven-step path. A master narrative distilled from these cases could help guide and assess the progress toward a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan.

  Feb 28, 2014

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  Report

  From Stalemate to Settlement: Lessons for Afghanistan from Historical Insurgencies That Have Been Resolved Through Negotiations

  Historical insurgencies that ended in settlement after a stalemate have generally followed a seven-step path. A master narrative distilled from these cases could help guide and assess the progress toward a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan.

  Feb 10, 2014

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  Journal Article

  Integrating Apples, Oranges, Pianos, Volkswagens, and Skyscrapers: On the Relationships Between Information-Related Capabilities and Other Lines of Operation

  This article describes the various possible relationships between IRCs and the capabilities of other lines of operation.

  2014

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  Journal Article

  Mexico Is Not Colombia: Seeking More Productive Analogies for Responding to the Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations

  This article compares the security situation in Mexico to historical examples of similar situations in a range of other states.

  2014

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  Tool

  The RAND Security Cooperation Prioritization and Propensity Matching Tool

  RAND research identified practices and factors associated with success in security cooperation. A related diagnostic tool can help defense planners identify mismatches between funding, priorities, and propensity for success with a given country.

  Nov 6, 2013

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  Report

  Counterinsurgency Scorecard: Afghanistan in Early 2013 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II

  Previous RAND research on historical insurgencies found that a conflict's overall balance of good and bad factors and practices perfectly discriminated its outcome. A RAND study applied this scorecard approach to Afghanistan in early 2013.

  Oct 7, 2013

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  Journal Article

  Between Large-N and Small-N Analyses: Historical Comparison of Thirty Insurgency Case Studies

  The authors study the 30 insurgencies occurring between 1978 and 2008 using four methods crossing the qualitative/quantitative divide.

  Oct 1, 2013

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  Report

  Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies

  Building on a 2010 RAND study of the 30 insurgencies begun and completed between 1978 and 2008, this study added 41 new cases to the data set, allowing comparisons across all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II.

  Sep 26, 2013

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  Report

  Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies

  This companion volume to Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies offers in-depth case studies of 41 insurgencies since World War II. Each case breaks the conflict into phases and examines the trajectory that led to the outcome.

  Sep 26, 2013

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  Periodical

  RAND Review: Vol. 37, No. 1, Summer 2013

  Stories discuss the harms caused by sexual assault in the military; the prospects for minimalist international interventions; cyber threats and nations' responses to them; and the rising costs of dementia in the United States.

  Jul 15, 2013

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  Report

  What Works Best When Building Partner Capacity and Under What Circumstances?

  A RAND study collected and compared 20 years of data on 29 historical case studies to identify how the U.S. Department of Defense can increase the effectiveness of efforts to build partner security and military capacity.

  Jan 28, 2013

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  Report

  Redefining Information Warfare Boundaries for an Army in a Wireless World

  The U.S. Army is studying ways to apply its cyber power and is reconsidering doctrinally defined areas related to cyberspace operations. Clarifying the overlap between network and information operations and other areas could inform Army doctrine.

  Jan 16, 2013

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  Journal Article

  The Crawl, Walk, Run Progression for the Integration and Conduct of Efforts to Inform, Influence, and Persuade

  There is broad consensus that strategic communication is important, but there are a host of different views about exactly what it is and an equally large stack of divergent proposals for improvement or development.

  2013

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  Journal Article

  Foundations for Assessment: The Hierarchy of Evaluation and the Importance of Articulating a Theory of Change

  There is currently a great deal of attention to assessment in a range of defense communities. Two foundational elements for planning and conducting assessments can benefit these communities: explicit theories of change and a hierarchy for evaluation.

  2013

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  Journal Article

  Challenges Facing U. S. Government and Department of Defense Efforts in Strategic Communication

  This article enumerates challenges facing efforts to inform, influence, and persuade in pursuit of national policy objectives first for the U.S. government in general, and then specific to the Department of Defense.

  Jun 1, 2012

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  Journal Article

  Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 30 Insurgencies, 1978-2008

  Useful recommendations for US engagement in and support for COIN operations.

  2012

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  Report

  The Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations: An Assessment of Mexican Security Based on Existing RAND Research on Urban Unrest, Insurgency, and Defense-Sector Reform

  A RAND team conducted a Delphi expert elicitation exercise to assess the security situation in Mexico using assessment scorecards developed in prior RAND research on urban instability and unrest, historical insurgencies, and defense-sector reform.

  Oct 21, 2011

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  Report

  How Successful Are U.S. Efforts to Build Capacity in Developing Countries? A Framework to Assess the Global Train and Equip "1206" Program

  The Global Train and Equip

  Sep 14, 2011

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  Journal Article

  Toward a U.S. Army Cyber Security Culture

  This article defines and explores the concept of cyber security culture within the context of the U.S. Army.

  Sep 1, 2011

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  Report

  The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism

  In a series of essays, this book addresses the question of how America has responded in the ten years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks and suggests options for more effectively dealing with the terrorist threat in the future.

  Jul 26, 2011

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  Report

  Alert and Ready: An Organizational Design Assessment of Marine Corps Intelligence

  U.S. Marine Corps intelligence comprises a number of ad hoc arrangements, practices, and organizations. A review of its organizational design examined how to better align it with current and future missions and functions.

  Jul 13, 2011

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  Testimony

  Getting Better at Strategic Communication

  Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities on July 12, 2011.

  Jul 11, 2011

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  Report

  Counterinsurgency Scorecard: Afghanistan in Early 2011 Relative to the Insurgencies of the Past 30 Years

  Previous RAND research on historical insurgencies found that a conflict's overall balance of good and bad factors and practices perfectly predicted outcomes. A RAND project applied this scorecard approach to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011.

  Jun 27, 2011

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  Journal Article

  Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Evidence of Effective Approaches to Counterinsurgency, 1978-2008

  Good COIN practices tend to "run in packs" and the balance of selected good and bad practices predicts insurgency outcomes.

  Jan 17, 2011

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  Journal Article

  Evidentiary Validation of FM 3-24: Counterinsurgency Worldwide, 1978-2008

  Discusses the demonstrated efficacy of the COIN principles embodied in FM 3-24, historical evicence and data collected from 30 case studies for recent resolved insurgencies. The vast majority of governments and COIN forces that adhered to multiple tenets of the field manual prevailed over the insurgencies they opposed.

  2011

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  Report

  Adding Value to Air Force Management Through Building Partnerships Assessment

  Evaluates existing Air Force capacity to conduct assessments of its security cooperation and building partnerships programs, makes the case for improving assessment efforts, and describes a framework for doing so.

  Dec 17, 2010

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  Report

  Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency

  An examination of approaches to counterinsurgency from 30 recent resolved campaigns reveals that good COIN practices tend to ''run in packs'' and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict.

  Jun 18, 2010

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  Report

  Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies

  Narratives on the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, covering the period 1978 to 2008, and data on 76 factors hypothesized to be related to the success of counterinsurgency forces supplement analyses of historical and contemporary insurgencies.

  Jun 18, 2010

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  Report

  Developing an Assessment Framework for U.S. Air Force Building Partnerships Programs

  Working with allies in a security cooperation context to build their defense capacity, acquire or maintain access to their territory for potential operations, and strengthen relationships with their air forces is a valuable U.S. Air Force activity.

  Feb 2, 2010

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  Journal Article

  As a Fish Swims in the Sea: Relationships Between Factors Contributing to Support for Terrorist or Insurgent Groups

  2010

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  Journal Article

  "Strategic Communication" Is Vague: Say What You Mean

  When it comes to strategic communication, the lack of a precise and agreed lexicon is preventing deeper shared understanding and making it harder to identify specific problems and solutions in this arena.

  2010

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  Report

  Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together

  Why does terrorism arise and decline? Why do people become terrorists or disengage? How do terrorists generate, maintain, or lose public support? How do terrorists make decisions? These are the questions that the authors address.

  May 13, 2009

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  Report

  Whither Strategic Communication? A Survey of Current Proposals and Recommendations

  In light of calls to reform U.S. strategic communication and public diplomacy, RAND conducted a survey of existing reform and improvement proposals, enabling the identification and categorization of frequently appearing recommendations.

  Feb 13, 2009

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  Report

  An Examination of Options to Reduce Underway Training Days Through the Use of Simulation

  The U.S. Navy is looking for ways to reduce the annual operating costs of the fleet. RAND examines whether and how an increased use of simulators could reduce costly underway training days for DDG-51-class ships while sustaining readiness.

  Aug 6, 2008

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  Journal Article

  A Cautionary Case Study of Approaches to the Treatment of Missing Data

  Presents findings from a case study of different approaches to the treatment of missing data. Casewise deletion can perform less well than expected. Unsophisticated imputations, such as mean and conditional mean, performed better than expected.

  2008

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  Journal Article

  Defining Terrorists' Information Requirements: The Modified Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (ModIPB) Framework

  2008

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  Journal Article

  Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

  This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.

  2008

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  Journal Article

  US Presidential War Powers: Legacy Chains in Military Intervention Decisionmaking

  Using the events leading to the War Powers Resolution of 1973 and its subsequent impact on US military interventions as an empirical example, this article elaborates the notion of 'legacy chains.'

  2008

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  Research Brief

  Can Publicly Available Information Be Used in Planning Terrorist Attacks?

  This fact sheet describes a framework for assessing the availability of publicly available information for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure and the results of applying the framework in a red-team exercise.

  Aug 1, 2007

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  Report

  Freedom and Information: Assessing Publicly Available Data Regarding U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Security

  Describes a framework to guide assessments of the availability of data regarding U.S. anti- and counterterrorism systems, countermeasures, and defenses for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure.

  Jul 18, 2007

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  Research Brief

  Applying Madison Avenue Principles and Recent Operational Experience to Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations

  This research brief summarizes a study that examined successes from the commercial marketing industry and how those lessons might assist U.S. and coalition forces to improve shaping campaigns during stability operations.

  Jul 11, 2007

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  Report

  Enlisting Madison Avenue: The Marketing Approach to Earning Popular Support in Theaters of Operation

  Enlisting Madison Avenue extracts lessons from business marketing practices and adapts them to U.S. military operations in a unique approach that will potentially maximize the impact and improve the outcome of civilian-focused influence efforts.

  Jun 30, 2007

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  Report

  ''People Make the City,'' Executive Summary: Joint Urban Operations Observations and Insights from Afghanistan and Iraq

  Reveals lessons that will better enable military and civilian alike to meet national policy objectives by more effectively conducting urban combat and restoration.

  May 14, 2007

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  Report

  Implementing and Evaluating an Innovative Approach to Simulation Training Acquisitions

  This report describes an alternative business model for buying simulations and simulation training.

  Mar 6, 2006

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  Research Brief

  Acquiring Simulation Training: Evaluating and Implementing an Innovative Approach

  This research brief summarizes analysis that sought to identify how the Department of Defense obtains simulations and simulation training support, describing and evaluating an alternative approach using case summaries, open literature, and interviews.

  Feb 24, 2006

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  Report

  Preparing for the Proven Inevitable: An Urban Operations Training Strategy for America’s Joint Force

  A strategy for training the U.S. armed forces to conduct operations in built-up urban areas.

  Feb 8, 2006

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  Report

  Reporters on the Battlefield: The Embedded Press System in Historical Context

  An analysis of the relations between the military and the press explores the factors that led to the development of the embedded press and distinguishes the outcomes and goals for the two entities and for the public, including the “right to know.”

  Nov 23, 2004

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  Report

  Air Force Procurement Workforce Transformation: Lessons from the Commercial Sector

  To assist the Air Force in the process of significantly changing the way it purchases goods and services, this monograph reviews related commercial-sector activities and skills, suggests models for training programs, and includes a framework of metrics to track progress and refine procurement-workforce-development efforts over time.

  Oct 18, 2004

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  Report

  Intern Programs as a Human Resources Management Tool for the Department of Defense

  Findings and policy recommendations on internships in support of DoD's goal of determining ways to recruit the civilian workforce to replace the retiring workers and respond to workforce changes likely to accompany the impending military transformation.

  Aug 19, 2004

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  Research Brief

  Adopting New Procurement Methods in the U.S. Air Force: What Skills and Training are Needed?

  The U.S. Air Force is adopting widely accepted commercial best practices to change the way it purchases goods and services, with the goals of reducing costs and improving performance to better support its missions.

  2004

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  Journal Article

  The U.S. Military Intervention Decision-Making Process: Who Participates, and How?

  This article seeks to explain both who participates in military intervention decisions and how they participate.

  2004

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  Report

  Challenges in Defense Working Capital Fund Pricing: Analysis of the Defense Finance and Accounting Service

  Examining the pricing structure of the Defense Finance and Accounting Service and its impact on customer demand, workload, and equity in pricing

  2003

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  Report

  Improving the Defense Finance and Accounting Service's Interactions With Its Customers

  Today, DFAS provides a variety of finance and accounting services to military customers. This report examines DFAS's interactions with customers to determine how those interactions might be improved.

  2001

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  Research Brief

  Improving the DoD's Defense Finance and Accounting Service

  DFAS's performance could be improved through changes in DFAS's pricing system and in the nature of many of its transactions with customers.

  2001

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  Journal Article

  Moving Forward with State Autonomy and Capacity: Example from Two Studies of the Pentagon During W.W. II

  Strategy for arriving at answers to the critical question why do states do what they do? by focusing on and elaborating state autonomy theory.

  2000

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  Journal Article

  Breast Cancer Screening Adherence: Does Church Attendance Matter?

  Little is known about the health behaviors of church attendees.

  1998