Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND
RAND experts have been drawing on a vast body of relevant research to provide key insights on important issues related to Russia's military; Ukraine's resistance; the many political, diplomatic, and humanitarian implications of the crisis; and more.
RAND held three events in early March focused on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. On March 1, Samuel Charap and Marta Kepe spoke about Russia's strategy against Ukraine and Ukrainian resistance efforts, respectively. On March 4, Alyssa Demus and Stephen Flanagan spoke about Ukraine's information campaign and U.S.-led efforts to improve NATO's posture in Eastern Europe, respectively. On March 8, RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program hosted a discussion with Scott Boston, who presented his preliminary operational insights about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
RAND researchers have also published numerous commentaries:
- William Marcellino and Michael McNerney explore how the spread of images on social media—Russian soldiers deserting, convoys stalling, and tanks running out of fuel—is shaping and sustaining Ukrainians' will to fight.
- Marek Posard and Khrystyna Holynska write that Russia's stumbles betray problems with its military personnel system.
- Marta Kepe and Anika Binnendijk have stressed the importance of ensuring Ukrainian continuity of government.
- William Courtney noted that the interests of private businesses in Russia may be aligned with those of Ukraine and the West, and he explores how Western leaders could begin to prepare to engage any new Russian government that might emerge as a result of regime change in Moscow.
- As the Ukrainian refugee crisis continues to swell, Shelly Culbertson and Krishna Kumar distill lessons for host countries.
- Michael Johnson highlights seven long-standing assumptions that NATO should drop.
- According to Jeffrey Hornung, Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrates how the United States and its allies could prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan from becoming the world's next big crisis.
- Derek Grossman has identified how lessons from the Russian invasion may apply to a scenario in which China attacks a different neighbor: Vietnam.
- U.S. leaders edging closer to a decision about whether to take bolder action against Russia should be wary of “imperative-driven judgment,” says Michael Mazarr.
- Raphael Cohen has outlined emerging trends that may upset the strategic balance in Europe.