Arroyo Center Publications - 2017

Strategic Planning Tools for the Army Senior Reserve Officers' Training Corps Program 2017

Nelson Lim, Bruce R. Orvis, Abigail Haddad, Christopher E. Maerzluft, Kenneth Kuhn, Henu Zhao, Sung-Bou Kim

The Reserve Officers' Training Corps (ROTC) accounts for two-thirds of Regular Army officer production. As student populations shift and resources tighten, both the productivity and location of ROTC units must be monitored to ensure that the Army attracts and commissions highly-qualified officers. Two new strategic planning tools can help the Army evaluate current ROTC hosts and affiliates and choose new ones.

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win: Addendum 2017

David A. Shlapak

Document submitted April 17, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Limiting Regret: Building the Army We Will Need — An Update: Addendum 2017

Timothy M. Bonds

Document submitted April 17, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Dominating Duffer's Domain: Lessons for the U.S. Army Information Operations Practitioner 2017

Christopher Paul, William Marcellino

More than a century after its release, The Defence of Duffer's Drift by Major General Sir Ernest Swinton has become a military classic. To support U.S. Army efforts to better integrate information operations into operational planning, RAND has adapted the style of that work for a modern-day audience and different problem set. Through a cycle of repeated failure and learning, the reader is left with 26 concise, relevant lessons.

European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis 2017

Stephanie Pezard, Andrew Radin, Thomas S. Szayna, F. Stephen Larrabee

Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea has challenged the integrity of Europe's territorial borders and had a broader negative impact on the European security environment. This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat — whether European states regard Russia's policy in eastern and northern Europe as a security priority, how they have responded to Russian behavior, and how officials see the future of Russo-European relations.

The Abilities of the British, French, and German Armies to Generate and Sustain Armored Brigades in the Baltics 2017

Michael Shurkin

Britain, France, and Germany had been cutting military budgets and conventional military capabilities, until the Russian intervention in Ukraine revived the possibility of a land war against a peer adversary. This report assesses the current capacity of Britain, France, and Germany to generate armored units for a hypothetical deployment to the Baltics. Could they muster a full brigade each? How quickly could they do that, and for how long?

Paid Duty Days for Army Guardsmen and Reservists: A Comparison of Fiscal Year 2000 with Fiscal Years 2010 to 2013 2017

Joshua Klimas, Thomas F. Lippiatt, Laurie L. McDonald, Jerry M. Sollinger

This report examines how the number of paid duty days for Army guardsmen and reservists has changed over the past several years, compared with before 9/11. Excluding most of those serving on extended active duty, median paid duty days in FYs 2010–2013 were only slightly higher than the numbers from FY 2000. In all years, median paid duty days approximated the required statutory minimum of 39 days for guardsmen and 38 for reservists.

Tactical Cyber: Building a Strategy for Cyber Support to Corps and Below 2017

Isaac R. Porche III, Christopher Paul, Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke, Erin-Elizabeth Johnson, Drew Herrick

RAND Arroyo Center was asked by U.S. Army Cyber Command's G35 office to develop and document an Army strategy for providing cyber support to corps and below. This report proposes a strategy for tactical Army cyber operations, enumerating overarching goals, objectives, and associated activities. Instructive case studies are provided that support implementation of the strategy.

Knowing the Enemy: Understanding the Islamic State and Principles for Defeating It 2017

Terrence K. Kelly, James Dobbins, Barbara Sude, Ben Connable

RAND researchers outline general principles that U.S. policymakers must consider when conceiving and weighing appropriate strategies to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

Reimagining the Character of Urban Operations for the U.S. Army: How the Past Can Inform the Present and Future 2017

Gian Gentile, David E. Johnson, Lisa Saum-Manning, Raphael S. Cohen, Shara Williams, Carrie Lee, Michael Shurkin, Brenna Allen, Sarah Lovell, James L. Doty III

Provides a historical analysis of the ways in which militaries have deployed light and mechanized infantry with armored forces during close urban combat in order to to identify the advantages and costs of this warfighting approach and inform how the Army might confront foes in complex, urban environments in the future.

Limiting Regret: Building the Army We Will Need — An Update 2017

Timothy M. Bonds

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win 2017

David A. Shlapak

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries 2017

This volume describes nine warfighting scenarios to test whether the anti-access and area-denial threat to U.S. force projection is growing more severe in critical regions. The potential adversaries in the scenarios are China, Russia, and Iran. The scenarios describe plausible U.S. and adversary military actions based on common understanding of current operational capabilities and approaches.

Toward Efficient Military Retirement Accrual Charges 2017

James Hosek, Beth J. Asch, Michael G. Mattock

This report presents a theoretical model of the retirement accrual charge, critically reviews reforms suggested by past studies, and provides empirical estimates of the inaccuracy in each service's total and marginal accrual charges under the current system and indicates how this could be fixed by service-specific accrual charges with separate charges for officers and enlisted personnel.

Defining an Approach for Future Close Air Support Capability 2017

John Matsumura, John Gordon IV, Randall Steeb

Close air support (CAS) is about providing airborne firepower for troops on the ground who may be operating in close proximity to the enemy. For some time now, the Army has relied on Air Force A-10s to supply CAS for a variety of reasons. But partly out of concern about survivability in future conflicts, the Air Force now plans to retire the aircraft. This report examines the consequences for the Army and the alternatives it may wish to pursue.

Counternetwork: Countering the Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks 2017

Angel Rabasa, Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Peter Chalk, Douglas Farah, Gregory Midgette, Howard J. Shatz

Through an analysis of transnational criminal networks originating in South America, this report presents operational characteristics of these networks, strategic alliances they have established, and the multiple threats that they pose to U.S. interests and to the stability of the countries where they operate. It also identifies U.S. government policies and programs to counter these networks and examines the military's role in that context.

Helping Soldiers Leverage Army Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities in Civilian Jobs 2017

Jeffrey B. Wenger, Ellen M. Pint, Tepring Piquado, Michael G. Shanley, Trinidad Beleche, Melissa A. Bradley, Jonathan Welch, Laura Werber, Cate Yoon, Eric J. Duckworth, et al.

This report discusses the results of occupation surveys administered to soldiers in selected Army military occupational specialties (MOSs) to assess the level and importance of the knowledge, skills, and abilities needed in these MOSs and to develop better crosswalks between military and civilian occupations. The report identifies both a broader range of military-civilian occupation matches and higher-quality matches than existing crosswalks.

Improving Employment Prospects for Soldiers Leaving the Regular Army 2017

Jeffrey B. Wenger, Ellen M. Pint, Tepring Piquado, Michael G. Shanley, Trinidad Beleche, Melissa A. Bradley, Jonathan Welch, Laura Werber, Cate Yoon, Eric J. Duckworth, et al.

Discusses the results of a new approach to develop an improved crosswalk between Army military occupational specialties (MOSs) and civilian occupations, highlighting ten of the Army's most populous combat and noncombat MOSs.

Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures 2017

F. Stephen Larrabee, Stephanie Pezard, Andrew Radin, Nathan Chandler, Keith Crane, Thomas S. Szayna

Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and continued aggression in eastern Ukraine, Europe must reassess its approach to a regional security environment previously thought to be stable and relatively benign. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation and examines four areas of potential European vulnerability: military, trade and investment, energy, and politics.