Arroyo Center Publications - 2018

Planning an Army for the 21st Century: Principles to Guide U.S. Army Force Size, Mix, and Component Distribution 2018

Joshua Klimas, Gian Gentile

In this Perspective, the authors seek to provide criteria for an effective and efficient Army for the 21st century. To do so, they review how the United States has adapted principles guiding Army force planning to meet strategic needs, examine the major missions that the Army must be able to perform to meet today's defense strategy, and lay out principles to help guide leaders in making contemporary force-planning decisions.

Quality of Life at Contingency Bases: Managing Sustainment Community Support Requirements 2018

John E. Peters, Elvira N. Loredo, Mary E. Chenoweth, Jeff Broughton, Andrea M. Abler

Quality-of-life goods and services for soldiers operating from contingency bases are key for morale and physical and emotional well-being but also a substantial logistics burden, especially in austere theaters, such as Afghanistan, where roads are few and the terrain is difficult. This report evaluates factors that contribute to and detract from soldier quality of life and recommends improvements in the face of a range of constraints.

What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression 2018

Michael J. Mazarr, Arthur Chan, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Alireza Nader, Stephanie Pezard, Julia A. Thompson, Elina Treyger

The challenge of deterring territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion of it has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circles. The authors aim to provide a fresh look, with two primary purposes: to review established concepts about deterrence, and to provide a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships. They focus on a specific type of deterrence: extended deterrence of interstate aggression.

Countering Russian Social Media Influence 2018

Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Todd C. Helmus, Andrew Radin, Elina Treyger

With the rise of social media, it has become clear that the Russian government and its proxies have found new and useful outlets in which to sow disinformation and confusion among various populations, including within the United States. This report draws on expert recommendations from academia, think tanks, and the private sector to formulate specific and actionable approaches for countering Russian social media influence.

Career Paths in the Army Civilian Workforce: Identifying Common Patterns Based on Statistical Clustering 2018

Shanthi Nataraj, Lawrence M. Hanser

This report examines what the career of a "typical" Army civilian looks like. Using a statistical clustering technique to group career trajectories together by length of service, promotion frequency and timing, and transfers between the Army and other Department of Defense components, the researchers identified common career patterns among individuals who entered the Army civilian workforce between 1981 and 2000 as General Schedule employees.

Pacific Engagement: Forging Tighter Connections Between Tactical Security Cooperation Activities and U.S. Strategic Goals in the Asia-Pacific Region 2018

Stephen Watts, Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Sean Mann, Angela O'Mahony, Michael Schwille

This report examines U.S. Army security cooperation (SC) processes in the Pacific Command area of responsibility to forge stronger links between strategic and tactical levels in the planning and execution of SC activities. Researchers developed a framework to link tactical-level SC activities with strategic goals and found ways to identify information requirements for units executing SC activities and improve evaluations of SC events.

At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World 2018

Andrew Scobell, Bonny Lin, Howard J. Shatz, Michael Johnson, Larry Hanauer, Michael S. Chase, Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Ivan W. Rasmussen, Arthur Chan, Aaron Strong, et al.

China has always viewed itself as a vulnerable underdeveloped country. In the 1990s, it began negotiating economic agreements and creating China-centric institutions, culminating in the 2000s in numerous institutions and ultimately the Belt and Road Initiative. The authors analyze China's political and diplomatic, economic, and military engagement with the Developing World and discuss specific countries that are most important to China.

The Value of Experience in the Enlisted Force 2018

Jennie W. Wenger, Caolionn O'Connell, Louay Constant, Andrew J. Lohn

Past research has placed little emphasis on how to value the experience of U.S. Army noncommissioned officers (NCOs). The authors of this report examine the relationships between the tenure, experience, and productivity of key NCO leaders and the performance of the junior soldiers they lead, with a focus on maintaining or improving leadership quality and soldier performance, as well as reducing personnel costs.

Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units 2018

Ben Connable, Michael J. McNerney, William Marcellino, Aaron B. Frank, Henry Hargrove, Marek N. Posard, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Jasen J. Castillo, James Sladden

This report defines and describes will to fight and provides a model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale. The model provides a research-grounded template for case-by-case adviser assessment of partner or allied military forces and the intelligence analysis of adversary forces. This report also provides a theoretical basis for adding will to fight to military war gaming and simulation.

National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't 2018

Michael J. McNerney, Ben Connable, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Marek N. Posard, Jasen J. Castillo, Dan Madden, Ilana Blum, Aaron B. Frank, Benjamin J. Fernandes, et al.

In this report, RAND researchers explore the factors, contexts, and mechanisms that shape a national government's decision to continue or end military and other operations during a conflict (i.e., national will to fight). To help U.S. leaders better understand and influence will to fight, the researchers propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that can be tailored and applied to a wide set of conflict scenarios.

Shared Problems: The Lessons of AirLand Battle and the 31 Initiatives for Multi-Domain Battle 2018

David E. Johnson

The U.S. Army and the U.S. Air Force are developing the concept of Multi-Domain Battle to better coordinate air and ground forces to meet shared challenges. Multi-Domain Battle is intended to wrest the advantage from potential adversaries and restore a credible conventional deterrent and warfighting capability against peer competitors. This Perspective explores lessons from similar efforts in the past and why they did not continue.

Sectarianism in the Middle East: Implications for the United States 2018

Heather M. Robinson, Ben Connable, David E. Thaler, Ali G. Scotten

Many view unrest in the Middle East through the lens of religious sectarianism, focusing on the Sunni-Shi'a split. The authors analyze sectarianism in the region, evaluate other factors that fan the flames of violent conflict, and suggest a different interpretation of both identity and the nature of regional unrest.

RAND Arroyo Center Annual Report 2017-2018 2018

This RAND Arroyo Center report presents research-based insights and courses of action to help the U.S. Army meet five of its highest priorities. The report summarizes nine recent analyses that illustrate the wide range of RAND Arroyo Center's analytic capabilities focused on the priorities of Army leadership.

Russia's Use of Media and Information Operations in Turkey: Implications for the United States 2018

Katherine Costello

This Perspective assesses how Russia has used media and information operations to support its foreign policy goals related to Turkey. Russian media have employed propaganda strategies -- including amplification of genuine uncertainty, creation of opportunistic fabrications, and use of multiple contradictory narratives -- in an attempt to undermine Turkey's political and security cooperation with the United States and Europe.

Assessing the Needs of Soldiers and Their Families at the Garrison Level 2018

Carra S. Sims, Thomas E. Trail, Emily K. Chen, Erika Meza, Parisa Roshan, Beth E. Lachman

In 2014, the RAND Arroyo Center conducted a formal needs assessment survey of active component soldiers and described the broad landscape of needs and resource use. Installations vary in several ways that can affect service delivery. This project analyzed existing survey data at the garrison level and gathered qualitative focus group data to provide unique information, enabling garrisons to see where they do well and where they have challenges.

Assessing, Monitoring, and Evaluating Army Security Cooperation: A Framework for Implementation 2018

Angela O'Mahony, Ilana Blum, Gabriela Armenta, Nicholas E. Burger, Joshua Mendelsohn, Michael J. McNerney, Steven W. Popper, Jefferson P. Marquis, Thomas S. Szayna

The U.S. Army conducts security cooperation activities with partner nations to achieve several objectives; however, evaluating the effectiveness of these activities has been difficult. To help the Army prioritize and increase the effectiveness of its activities, this report addresses two questions: when can Army security cooperation have the greatest impact, and how should the Army assess, monitor, and evaluate security cooperation?

Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army's Enlisted Recruiting Requirements Under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies 2018

David Knapp, Bruce R. Orvis, Christopher E. Maerzluft, Tiffany Berglund

The purpose of this research is to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the Army's use of recruiting resources and policies. A theoretical model was estimated based on the Army's recruiting experience. Using this model, a tool was created for the Army's use in assessing alternative courses of action and optimizing resource levels and mix under alternative enlisted accession goals, labor market conditions, and recruit eligibility policies.

Prospective Outcome Assessment for Alternative Recruit Selection Policies 2018

Bruce R. Orvis, Christopher E. Maerzluft, Sung-Bou Kim, Michael G. Shanley, Heather Krull

Selecting recruits who will complete their term of enlistment is very important for both maintaining Army readiness and minimizing cost. This report describes a tool that enables the Army to identify potential changes to selection of youth based on a variety of attributes in order to expand supply smartly or to decrease the rates of targeted adverse outcomes and related costs.

Using the Person-Event Data Environment for Military Personnel Research in the Department of Defense: An Evaluation of Capability and Potential Uses 2018

David Knapp, Beth J. Asch, Christine DeMartini, Teague Ruder, Janet M. Hanley

The objectives of the study described in this report are to determine whether the RAND Corporation's federally funded research and development centers can effectively and efficiently use the Person-Event Data Environment (PDE) to support manpower and personnel research sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, assess how using the PDE compares with existing approaches to accessing data, and identify potential improvements to the PDE.

Comprehensive Deterrence Forum: Proceedings and Commissioned Papers 2018

In October 2015, U.S. Army Special Operations Command facilitated a forum to explore the subject of comprehensive deterrence. Part I of this report delivers the forum proceedings, reflecting a robust discussion of deterrence. To support the discussion, the RAND Corporation commissioned five papers to examine aspects of comprehensive deterrence, referencing four waves of deterrence literature. The papers are included in Part II of this report.

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment 2018

Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Michael Schwille, Jakub P. Hlavka, Michael A. Brown, Steven Davenport, Isaac R. Porche III, Joel Harding

Harnessing the potential of old and new technology, state and nonstate actors alike dedicate significant effort to developing and employing information power. This examination of the evolution of allied and adversary activities in and through the information environment and comparative analysis of capability areas in which these others excel can guide future U.S. Army force planning.

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment: Case Studies 2018

Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Michael Schwille, Jakub P. Hlavka, Michael A. Brown, Steven Davenport, Isaac R. Porche III, Joel Harding

Harnessing the power of old and new technology, state and nonstate actors alike dedicate significant effort to developing and employing information power. Twelve detailed case studies examine the information-related activities and strategic goals of a range of allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries, highlighting insights for U.S. Army planning.

The Russian Challenge 2018

David A. Shlapak

This RAND Arroyo Perspective updates previous analysis published by the RAND Corporation about Russia as a source of military competition and potential conflict with the United States and its allies. It is one of several summary assessments produced to support development of the 2016 Annual Report of the RAND Arroyo Center. The annual report focuses thematically on the major drivers of U.S. national security policy and strategy.

The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios 2018

Michael J. Mazarr, Gian Gentile, Dan Madden, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Yvonne K. Crane

This perspective summarizes detailed analytical work on the growing operational and strategic implications of a large, survivable North Korean nuclear force; the operational challenges of North Korean artillery and related capabilities that can threaten Seoul from the Kaesong Heights; and the operational and diplomatic issues attendant to a potential mission to secure loose nuclear weapons after a North Korean collapse.

Life as a Private: A Study of the Motivations and Experiences of Junior Enlisted Personnel in the U.S. Army 2018

Todd C. Helmus, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Marek N. Posard, Jasmine L. Wheeler, Cordaye Ogletree, Quinton Stroud, Margaret C. Harrell

The U.S. Army Recruiting Command asked RAND Arroyo Center to undertake research to improve its understanding of soldiers' motivations to join the Army, and how the reality of Army life matches up with expectations. This study's portrayal of the U.S. Army private could serve as an educational tool for a variety of important audiences, such as Army senior leadership, junior officers, noncommissioned officers, and prospective new recruits.