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Arroyo Center Publications - 2021

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Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking 2021

Miranda Priebe, Angela O'Mahony, Bryan Frederick, Alyssa Demus, Bonny Lin, Michelle Grisé, Derek Eaton, Abby Doll
The 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy instructed the U.S. military to become more operationally unpredictable and suggested that doing so would help the United States deter attacks on U.S. partners. The authors of this report assess whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identify the possible risks of such approaches.
A Review of U.S. Army Non-Materiel Capability-Development Processes 2021

Samantha McBirney, Bryan W. Hallmark, Stephen Webber, Erik E. Mueller, Erin N. Leidy, Caolionn O'Connell, Drake Warren, Sale Lilly, Andrea M. Abler
This report identifies issues and necessary process changes to improve how the Army implements non-materiel solutions across the DOTLPF-P (doctrine, organization, training, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy) domains. The authors recommend that the Army maintain its current processes for the DOTLP-P domains while pursuing specific recommendations for facilities, thereby driving further success of the modernization effort.
Characteristics of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Army: Implications for Prevention Efforts 2021

Miriam Matthews, Andrew R. Morral, Terry L. Schell, Matthew Cefalu, Joshua Snoke, R. J. Briggs, Avery Calkins, Linda Cottrell, Sarah O. Meadows, Rebecca L. Collins
This research brief highlights top-line findings from two projects that have implications for strategies to prevent sexual harassment and sexual assault in the U.S. Army.
Sexual Harassment and Gender Discrimination in the Active-Component Army: Variation in Most Serious Event Characteristics by Gender and Installation Risk 2021

Avery Calkins, Matthew Cefalu, Terry L. Schell, Linda Cottrell, Sarah O. Meadows, Rebecca L. Collins
This report describes the most common types of behaviors that occur during active-component soldiers' most serious sexual harassment and gender discrimination experiences, characteristics of (alleged) perpetrators, most common times and places in which these events occur, and differences between high-risk and non–high-risk installations.
Defense Acquisition in Russia and China 2021

Mark Ashby, Caolionn O'Connell, Edward Geist, Jair Aguirre, Christian Curriden, Jonathan Fujiwara
Russia and China have sought to modernize their legacy defense equipment while concurrently developing new and increasingly sophisticated systems of their own. This report discusses recent research into the research, development, and acquisition processes of Russia and China—both doctrinally and in practice—and identifies areas in which each country excels and where each country has challenges.
Competing with Russia Militarily: Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts 2021

Clint Reach, Edward Geist, Abby Doll, Joe Cheravitch
In 2018, the U.S. National Defense Strategy formally codified the latest shift in threat perceptions, heralding Russia as one of the "principal priorities" for the U.S. Department of Defense. In this Perspective, the authors illuminate the implications of a conventional military confrontation between NATO and Russia in Europe and the associated risk of nuclear escalation.
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Army: Where Cases are Highest and Why 2021

Miriam Matthews, Andrew R. Morral, Terry L. Schell, Matthew Cefalu, Joshua Snoke, R. J. Briggs
This research summarizes estimates of sexual assault risk and sexual harassment risk across U.S. Army installations and command, showing variation in these risks across groups of soldiers.
Organizational Characteristics Associated with Risk of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Army 2021

Miriam Matthews, Andrew R. Morral, Terry L. Schell, Matthew Cefalu, Joshua Snoke, R. J. Briggs
Researchers extended previous RAND analyses that produced estimates of sexual assault risk and sexual harassment risk across installations and commands. The results of these extended analyses showed considerable variation in the risk of sexual assault and sexual harassment across groups of soldiers, primarily among Army women—at installations, commands, and in career fields—and identified characteristics of groups in which risk level was higher.
Russia's Global Interests and Actions: Growing Reach to Match Rejuvenated Capabilities 2021

Bruce McClintock, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Katherine Costello
This perspective informs the subject of Russia's global ambitions and actions—its key interests and objectives and its foreign policy approaches to pursuing or protecting them. Recognizing Russia's global interests and its opportunistic approach to bilateral relationships can help the United States implement its current global strategy while developing a more holistic global response.
Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond 2021

Stephen Watts, Jeffrey Martini, Jason H. Campbell, Mark Toukan, Inhyok Kwon
U.S. decisionmakers and a variety of analysts have generally agreed that broad-based, inclusive governance and institutionalized capacity-building consistent with the rule of law are the long-term goals for stabilizing fragile states. How to realize these goals is much more contentious. This report summarizes research on better understanding the use of leverage in nudging partners toward better governance practices after military interventions.
Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States: Executive Summary 2021

Stephen Watts, Jeffrey Martini, Jason H. Campbell, Mark Toukan, Inhyok Kwon
U.S. decisionmakers and a variety of analysts have generally agreed that broad-based, inclusive governance and institutionalized capacity-building consistent with the rule of law are the long-term goals for stabilizing fragile states. How to realize these goals is much more contentious. This report summarizes research on better understanding the use of leverage in nudging partners toward better governance practices after military interventions.
What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression 2021

Michael J. Mazarr, Joe Cheravitch, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Stephanie Pezard
In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of gray zone aggression, develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone, and apply the framework to three case studies: China’s actions in the Senkaku Islands, Russia’s actions in the Baltic states, and North Korea’s actions in South Korea.
What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait 2021

Michael J. Mazarr, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Timothy R. Heath, Derek Eaton
As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence. In particular, RAND researchers apply the established framework to U.S. efforts to deter North Korean aggression against South Korea and U.S. efforts to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
The Iran Threat Network (ITN): Four Models of Iran's Nonstate Client Partnerships 2021

Ariane M. Tabatabai, Jeffrey Martini, Becca Wasser
The authors focus on the Iran Threat Network (ITN), a loose network of non-Iranian, nonstate groups supported by Tehran that sits at the intersection of two threats—Iran and nonstate actors—highlighted in recent U.S. policy as a priority for the U.S. government to counter. The authors explore Iran's relationship with its nonstate network to better enable the U.S. government to counter Iranian subversion in the region via the ITN.
Army Analytic Capabilities: A Case Study Within Army Contracting Command and Its Implications 2021

William Marcellino, Justin Grana, Jair Aguirre, Amber Jaycocks, Christian Johnson, Joshua Kerrigan
The U.S. Army lacks access to modern, commonplace analytical data management tools, and its data are locked away in siloed and proprietary databases. To solve these two analytical and management challenges, the authors developed a case study with Army Contracting Command (ACC) to determine if there is a simple and effective way to overcome these challenges and found an effective, efficient, and quick path forward.
Special Operations Forces Culture and Climate: The Future of the Force 2021

Linda Robinson
Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations on March 26, 2021.
An Empirical Assessment of the U.S. Army's Enlistment Waiver Policies: An Examination in Light of Emerging Societal Trends in Behavioral Health and the Legalization of Marijuana 2021

Beth J. Asch, Michael L. Hansen, Rosanna Smart, David Knapp, Daniel Schwam
This report documents an analysis of the performance of U.S. Army recruits who receive waivers, as well as those with a documented history of marijuana, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), depression, or anxiety. The authors also examine the extent to which increasing the share of recruits who receive waivers or have a documented history affects the overall performance of that accession cohort.
The Army's Local Economic Effects: Appendix B, Volume 1: Alabama Through Minnesota; 2nd Edition 2021

Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Craig A. Bond, Cole Sutera, Anthony Lawrence, Judith D. Mele, Joshua Mendelsohn, Christina Panis, Meagan L. Smith
This appendix to the second edition of The Army's Local Economic Effects describes overall economic effects by state, details by fiscal year from 2014 to 2017, and a parsing of data by congressional district for Alabama through Minnesota.
The Army's Local Economic Effects: Appendix B, Volume 2: Mississippi Through Wyoming; 2nd Edition 2021

Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Craig A. Bond, Cole Sutera, Anthony Lawrence, Judith D. Mele, Joshua Mendelsohn, Christina Panis, Meagan L. Smith
This appendix to the second edition of The Army's Local Economic Effects describes overall economic effects by state, details by fiscal year from 2014 to 2017, and a parsing of data by congressional district for Mississippi through Wyoming.
The Army's Local Economic Effects: 2nd Edition 2021

Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Craig A. Bond, Cole Sutera, Anthony Lawrence, Judith D. Mele, Joshua Mendelsohn, Christina Panis, Meagan L. Smith
This update of a previous report provides findings on economic activity supported by total Army spending in congressional districts for fiscal years 2014 through 2017. Using input/output models, researchers estimated that the Army directly spent approximately $80.1 million in the median congressional district and $1.3 billion in the median state in fiscal year 2017, translating into approximately 3,800 jobs per district and 48,000 jobs per state.

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