Arroyo Center Publications - 2021

Today's Army Spouse Experiences In Garrison: Problem Solving, Resource Use, and Connections to the Army Community 2021

Thomas E. Trail, Carra S. Sims, Kimberly Curry Hall

The U.S. Army provides many resources to help soldiers and their families cope with major life events associated with Army service. Through survey data and qualitative interviews, the authors explore Army spouses' experiences in navigating available resources, finding that the Army could do more to get the word out about available assistance and highlight the "one-stop shopping" features of existing but underutilized resources.

Assessing Trade-Offs in U.S. Military Intervention Decisions: Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene 2021

Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Stephanie Pezard, Alexandra Stark, Nathan Chandler, James Hoobler, Jooeun Kim

In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to rigorously consider the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis. This framework can provide a better understanding of the relationships between intervention timing, intervention size, and intervention outcomes to inform future debates about whether, when, and with what size force to undertake a military intervention.

Building Military Coalitions: Lessons from U.S. Experience 2021

Jennifer Kavanagh, Samuel Absher, Nathan Chandler, Ariane M. Tabatabai, Jeffrey Martini, Sebastian Joon Bae, Hannah Jane Byrne, Michael Shurkin

This report uses quantitative analysis and qualitative case studies to describe factors that seem to be associated with U.S. decisions to use coalitions for military interventions, factors that drive partner states to join such coalitions, and factors that shape the success of military coalitions. The report's insights may be especially useful if the United States finds itself more reliant on coalitions to respond to future threats.

Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries 2021

Michael J. Mazarr, Samuel Charap, Abigail Casey, Irina A. Chindea, Christian Curriden, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Arthur Chan, John P. Godges, Eugeniu Han, et al.

The international system appears headed for a renewed era of intense competition among major powers. The authors sought to identify the factors that keep such rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes. Leveraging theory and historical case studies, the authors created a framework for assessing the stability of a strategic rivalry, then applied it to the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

Forecasting Religious Affiliation in the United States Army 2021

Melissa Haller

The author examines U.S. demographic trends in religious affiliation and compares them with those of the U.S. Army to help the U.S. Army's Office of the Chief of Chaplains anticipate how the religious needs of the population it serves might change. Data on enlisted soldiers, chaplains, and officers in the Regular Army were reviewed, as well as data from a nationally representative survey of the U.S. population.

Soldier Preferences and Retention Effects of Changes in Army Reserve Training Requirements: An Exploration of Revealed and Stated Behavior 2021

Craig A. Bond, Ellen M. Pint, Stephan B. Seabrook, Christina Panis

The authors examine how changes in training requirements affect soldiers' interest in staying in the U.S. Army Reserve (USAR) and how their civilian employment and family situations influence that decision. The authors use administrative data and a survey to investigate both the likely impacts of changing unit-level USAR training requirements on retention outcomes and the overall preferences of USAR soldiers with respect to training load.

Analysis of Russian Irregular Threats 2021

Sean M. Zeigler, Dara Massicot, Elina Treyger, Naoko Aoki, Chandler Sachs, Stephen Watts

The authors of this report describe strategic global trends related to Russian global influence and behavior and provide an overview and assessment of hostile activities — including information warfare, political subversion, and the use of violence or the threat of violence through proxies to undermine political order and influence vulnerable governments — that Russia has undertaken in the face of these trends.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public Communication Campaigns and Their Implications for Strategic Competition with Russia 2021

Caitlin McCulloch, Stephen Watts

The authors examine evidence on the effectiveness of campaigns to influence public opinion in target populations — sometimes referred to as "information warfare" — in the context of strategic competition between the United States and Russia, and they provide recommendations for how the United States can maximize the effectiveness of its public communications in competition with Russia.

Countering Russia: The Role of Special Operations Forces in Strategic Competition 2021

Stephen Watts, Sean M. Zeigler, Kimberly Jackson, Caitlin McCulloch, Joe Cheravitch, Marta Kepe

The authors of this report assess the role of U.S. Army special operations forces (ARSOF) in great-power competition, focusing on the types of activities the United States will need to conduct in competition with Russia and ARSOF's effectiveness in conducting them, as well as ARSOF's advantages and disadvantages relative to conventional military forces and the efforts of nonmilitary agencies.

Readiness of Soldiers and Adult Family Members Who Receive Behavioral Health Care: Identifying Promising Outcome Metrics 2021

Kimberly A. Hepner, Carol P. Roth, Heather Krull, Lea Xenakis, Harold Alan Pincus

Behavioral health (BH) conditions comprise the second most common medical reason for nondeployability in the U.S. Army. To inform the Army's efforts to monitor and improve outcomes, the authors aimed to identify promising metrics to assess readiness among soldiers and adult family members who receive BH care. Such metrics would expand the Army's outcome monitoring efforts beyond symptom improvement metrics for patients who received BH care.

China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States 2021

Andrew Radin, Andrew Scobell, Elina Treyger, J.D. Williams, Logan Ma, Howard J. Shatz, Sean M. Zeigler, Eugeniu Han, Clint Reach

Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, increasing political, military, and economic cooperation. In this report, the authors seek to understand the history of cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, the drivers of and constraints on the relationship, the potential future of cooperation between China and Russia, the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States, and implications for future U.S. policy.

Select RAND Research on China: 1999-2019 2021

This volume is an important resource for anyone who is interested in gaining an informed understanding of China, a major strategic competitor of the United States in the economic, technological, diplomatic, and security realms.

Select RAND Research on Counterinsurgency, Stability Operations, Support to Foreign Internal Defense, Nation-Building, and Special Operations: 1962-2019 2021

This volume is an important resource for those interested in gaining an informed understanding of a persistent, though usually low-level, military threat to U.S. security.

Select RAND Research on the Information Environment: 2014-2020 2021

This volume is an important resource for anyone who is interested in gaining an informed understanding of operations in the information environment.

Select RAND Research on Security Cooperation: 2006-2019 2021

This volume is an important resource for those interested in gaining an informed understanding of security cooperation, an umbrella term that refers to the variety of activities that the United States undertakes to strengthen its military partners and partnerships.

Increasing Efficiency and Incentives for Performance in the Army's Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) Program 2021

Beth J. Asch, Michael G. Mattock, Patricia K. Tong, Jason M. Ward

This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Improving the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Special and Incentive Pays in the Army, sponsored by the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Manpower and Reserve Affairs. The purpose of the project was to help the Army determine how to best increase incentives for higher performance among enlisted members and to more efficiently achieve Army retention objectives.

Organizational and Cultural Causes of Army First-Term Attrition 2021

James V. Marrone, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Louay Constant, Marek N. Posard, Katherine L. Kidder, Christina Panis, Rebecca Jensen

The U.S. Army invests significant resources in new soldiers. When a soldier does not complete a full contract term, the Army views this as a net loss. This report assesses whether organizational factors matter for producing attrition and generates hypotheses regarding the mechanisms by which organizational factors generate attrition.

Iran's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts 2021

Ariane M. Tabatabai, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh

In recent years, Iran has risen as one of the most significant regional challenges faced by the United States. In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners and can guide decisions about the use of forces in the Middle East region.

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts 2021

Samuel Charap, Edward Geist, Bryan Frederick, John J. Drennan, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavanagh

Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since the end of the Cold War. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions by analyzing the 25 interventions that Russia has undertaken since 1991, including detailed case studies of the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and Moscow's involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war.

Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions 2021

Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Samuel Charap, Timothy R. Heath, Ariane M. Tabatabai, Edward Geist, Christian Curriden

The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future. Three companion reports consider Chinese, Russian, and Iranian military intervention behavior in detail. The insights and signposts identified in these reports can inform U.S. decisions about military posture, partnerships, and investments.

China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts 2021

Timothy R. Heath, Christian Curriden, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavanagh

Great powers have frequently employed large, expeditionary military forces engaged in various operations abroad. As China has ascended in power, observers have debated whether the country might follow a similar path. China has undertaken two types of military interventions in its post-1949 history. The report's authors assess which one of two patterns is likely to predominate in China's future and how this pattern might change.

An Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Measuring Multinational Interoperability: Early Development of the Army Interoperability Measurement System (AIMS) 2021

Bryan W. Hallmark, Christopher G. Pernin, Andrea M. Abler, Ryan Haberman, Sale Lilly, Samantha McBirney, Angela O'Mahony, Erik E. Mueller

Researchers conducted an analysis of alternatives of interoperability measurement systems to support the U.S. Army in achieving interoperability with partners. Researchers identified a new approach, the Army Interoperability Measurement System, which includes a quantitative instrument for measuring interoperability levels and a qualitative component to enable capability gap analysis, among other features.

Army Theater Fires Command: Integration and Control of Very Long-Range Army Fires 2021

John Gordon IV, John Matsumura

The U.S. Army is developing a new generation of surface-to-surface fires with very long ranges. Because of the range of these new Army weapons, there will be major implications for joint coordination and planning. To help address integration and control challenges, the Army proposed creating the Theater Fires Command. The authors assess how the command can operate as part of a joint force, as well as challenges in different theaters.

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality 2021

Samuel Charap, Dara Massicot, Miranda Priebe, Alyssa Demus, Clint Reach, Mark Stalczynski, Eugeniu Han, Lynn E. Davis

Understanding Russia's grand strategy can help U.S. decisionmakers assess the depth and nature of potential conflicts between Russia and the United States and avoid strategic surprise by better-anticipating Moscow's actions and reactions. The authors of this report review Russia's declared grand strategy, evaluate the extent to which Russian behavior is consistent with stated strategy, and outline implications for the United States.

Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable? 2021

Miranda Priebe, Angela O'Mahony, Bryan Frederick, Alyssa Demus, Bonny Lin, Michelle Grisé, Derek Eaton, Abby Doll

This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.