The RAND Blog

commentary

Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?

Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.

Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini

commentary

Better Defense Planning Could Use Statistics to Try to See into the Future

Statistical forecasting models that are grounded in empirical data can provide a valuable supplement to more-traditional methods. These tools allow for a more-structured and robust exploration of the future, its implications, and our assumptions about it.

Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick

commentary

The West and Russia the Day After

In the 1990s, after the breakup of the USSR, the West adapted to and helpfully influenced the birth of 15 new republics. If liberalizing change comes anew, the West may seek to help Russia heal itself for the long term.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake

Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

Why Not Space Mirrors?

Giant space mirrors can reflect solar radiation away from Earth, potentially helping to address the effects of climate change. But decisionmakers need more information about this technology to determine if it's a viable option.

Emmi Yonekura

commentary

Strategic Advantage, Sovereignty and Australia's Geopolitical Identity

In Australia, which has experienced few national existential crises, there appears to be little understanding of or consideration given to all the nuanced contours of winning. Australia may need to critically assess its strategic traditions to develop a broader conceptualization of how to secure the safety and well-being of the nation and position itself advantageously.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

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Why Vladimir Putin Is Likely to Be Disappointed

None of the Kremlin's recent gambits—annexation, mobilization or personnel shuffles—can overcome the larger problems facing Russia's military. And in the months ahead, its difficulties will only worsen.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

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Xi Jinping Is Weaker Than You Think

Although Xi wields significant influence over Chinese domestic politics—certainly more than his most recent predecessors—he still needs support from the Party elite. And on that front, some cracks are showing.

Howard Wang

blog

Legalizing Cannabis, the Russian Nuclear Threat, Digital Offshoring: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on cannabis legalization, the Russian nuclear threat, the effects of digital offshoring, and more.

commentary

The CHIPS Act Alone Won't Secure U.S. Semiconductor Supply Chains

The implementation of the CHIPS Act shows promise for revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry via investments in research and development, workforce development, and incentive programs. But executing on these ambitions could take some time and may not resolve all semiconductor supply chain risks.

Jared Mondschein @JSMondschein

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What's Next After Biden's Announcement on Cannabis and Racial Equity?

Cannabis legalization isn't just a yes-or-no choice. There are many ways for state and federal policymakers to shape the market and tax it. With deliberations in Washington, D.C., beginning and more states set to vote on the issue in November, now is the time for lawmakers to take stock of how potential changes will or won't help communities of color.

Beau Kilmer @BeauKilmer

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Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?

The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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COVID-19's Biggest Casualty May Be Governability

Pandemics fuel pre-existing prejudices, deepen social divisions, and increase political tensions. As the United States heads into the midterm elections, the parties should be prepared to face headwinds whichever side emerges with control of Congress. COVID-19's biggest political casualty might be governability.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

q&a

Q&A with the Experts: Puerto Rico

When Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico on September 18, electricity went out across the island. It was a reminder that recovery from 2017's Hurricane Maria is far from complete. RAND researchers discuss the difficulties Puerto Rico is still facing.

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Will Putin's War in Ukraine Continue Without Him?

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there has been ongoing deliberation about how long Putin will remain in power. But the West should not assume a change of leadership would result in an end to the war, at least in the short term, as Putin's war could very well continue without Putin.

Shawn Cochran