The RAND Blog

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Do Terrorist Groups Really Die? A Warning

The persistence of al Qaeda and ISIS underscores terrorist groups' adaptability in the 21st century. Both organizations maintain global, regional, and local influence in the face of immense pressure. As terrorist groups fall, the West should watch them closely to prevent a resurgence.

Antonia Ward

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To Protect Interests Abroad, China Will Feature a Diverse Array of Military, Non-Military Forces

As Beijing grapples with the realities of an economy increasingly susceptible to disruption from distant influences, experts debate how the Chinese military might protect overseas interests. Some have speculated that China may seek a military like that of the United States. Others have dismissed such a possibility.

Timothy R. Heath

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People—Not the Tech Companies—Will Ultimately Stop Disinformation in Europe

Authorities can continue to seek to punish the tech companies for the circulation of false articles. But this is unlikely to make a difference until more people take the time and acquire the skills to distinguish between fact and fiction.

Jennifer Kavanagh, Stijn Hoorens @StijnHoorens

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Can Washington Successfully Prepare for the Future?

The impossibility of predicting the future does not remove the need to mull the uncertain. Policymakers should build in windows of time to think imaginatively about the pursuit of America's strategic objectives, and take a bird's-eye view of the role America can and should play in shaping an increasingly complex, chaotic world.

Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn, Andrew Parasiliti @ATParasiliti, et al.

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Hit Russia Where It Hurts: Take Away World Cup

After a chemical attack in Great Britain, U.K., U.S. and other governments responded unilaterally. But this crime cries out for a more collective response. Revoking Russia's right to host the World Cup tournament would be a powerful signal of global outrage and would hit Putin where it hurts.

Andrew Scobell

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Preparing for U.S.-North Korea Talks: Insights from Researcher Bruce Bennett

What are the chances that a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and President Trump will lead to meaningful progress? And what should U.S. leaders be thinking about as they prepare? RAND's Bruce Bennett discusses.

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'Zero-sum' Approach to Defence and Security During Brexit Negotiations Risks a Less Secure UK and EU

It is in the interest of neither the UK nor the EU to have a 'zero sum' approach to defense and security during Brexit negotiations. Both sides have plenty to lose if it turns into a 'messy divorce.'

Alexandra Hall, James Black

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China Welcomes Its Newest Armed Force: The Coast Guard

China's recent move to transfer responsibility for the China Coast Guard to the People's Armed Police will have major symbolic implications for China's presence in disputed waters. It can no longer claim its presence in the South China Sea is purely civilian in nature.

Lyle J. Morris

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Iran: The Nuclear Agreement Will Survive, at Least for Now

A U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal does not necessarily mean the deal will collapse. But a broader collapse of the agreement along with the imposition of harsh sanctions in the coming months could sharply escalate tensions with Iran.

Richard C. Baffa

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Moscow Is Going Too Far

Russia has become more daring with the West with its retaliatory expulsions and may face a high price. An angered West could turn from expulsions to economic countermeasures.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Comparing Suicide Rates: Making an Apples to Apples Comparison

As the national suicide rate continues to rise, an increasing number of stakeholders are looking within their own communities and asking: “Do we have a suicide problem?” It's a difficult question to answer.

Rajeev Ramchand @RRamchand

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What's Turkey Trying to Achieve in Syria?

Turkish President Erdoğan is attempting to cement his political legitimacy among Syrian Sunnis by portraying himself as their savior. If the United States withdraws from Syria after the mission to defeat ISIS is complete, it will essentially be ceding the advantage to Erdoğan, who can continue pushing his agenda.

Ahmet S. Yayla, Colin P. Clarke

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China's Strengthening of Communist Party Rule Is Not Just a Power Grab

Strengthening the leadership role of the Communist Party and removing term limits for President Xi Jinping have raised fears about increasingly authoritarian Chinese politics. While repression may well increase, boosting the party’s influence also increases the chance of badly needed reforms concerning governance and the economy.

Timothy R. Heath

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Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge

Within 10 years, hypersonic missiles are likely to be deployed and offered on the international market. But there is time for action by states that do not want hypersonic missiles to flourish in their neighborhoods. It is time to move toward heading off this threat while it is still possible to do so.

Richard H. Speier

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European Security Cooperation Should Remain Comprehensive—Especially After Brexit

During Brexit negotiations, it could be tempting for the UK and EU to use certain security structures as 'bargaining chips'. However, it is in no one's interests for both sides to adopt a 'zero-sum' approach to security discussions.

Sarah Grand-Clement