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The RAND Blog

The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Dec 11, 2018
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)
The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. In this fragmented and atomised form, IS could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
ISIS's Use of Social Media Still Poses a Threat to Stability in the Middle East and Africa
Antonia Ward
Dec 11, 2018
Georgetown Security Studies Review
The importance of social media in projecting violent extremist propaganda and recruiting foreign fighters is well documented. As ISIS attempts to regroup and recuperate, investigating its strategic use of information and communication technologies in its communication with civilians could be important to understanding the group's plans to regain territorial control.
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United Kingdom
commentary
The UK Can't Have Its Brexit Cake and Eat It Too
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Dec 11, 2018
The Hill
If the UK wishes to negotiate free-trade deals around the world, it has to either rebuild a border in Ireland or put up a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. If it crashes out of the EU with no agreement, the economic costs are the highest and border chaos is likely.
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
NATO Needs a European Level of Ambition
Hans Binnendijk, Gene Germanovich @geneDC
Dec 10, 2018
Defense News
As NATO finalizes its new political guidance designed to shape future military forces, it has the chance to both strengthen Europe’s commitment to burden-sharing and relieve American concern about the creation of a new European Army. Building an enhanced European capacity within NATO entails some risk, but the benefits may outweigh concerns.
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Russia
commentary
No Russian Let-Up on Ukraine
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Bradley Martin
Dec 7, 2018
Fox News Channel
Moscow's seizure of Crimea and war in eastern Ukraine have led the West to sanction Russians and expand aid to Ukraine, and NATO to shift land and air forces eastward. Expanded Russian coercion may draw more NATO naval power closer to Russia’s shores and lead to tougher sanctions.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Sino-Japan Rapprochement Will Likely Fail
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Dec 7, 2018
Debating Japan (CSIS)
Recent meetings and otherwise relative calm between China and Japan may give the impression that their ties are improving. But because of their strategic competition and fundamental differences, it is more likely than not that their current rapprochement will fail.
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Cybersecurity
commentary
When Cyber Attacks Occur, Who Should Investigate?
John S. Davis II, Jonathan William Welburn @jwwelburn, Benjamin Boudreaux, Jair Aguirre
Dec 6, 2018
United Press International
Data breaches and cyberattacks cross geopolitical boundaries, targeting individuals, corporations and governments. Creating a global body with a narrow focus on investigating and assigning responsibility for cyberattacks could be the first step to creating a digital world with accountability.
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Japan
commentary
Is Japan's New Defense Plan Ambitious Enough?
Michael J Green, Jeffrey W. Hornung
Dec 6, 2018
War on the Rocks
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has significantly increased capabilities to meet increasing regional security challenges. But Tokyo may need to do more to manage the complex security environment surrounding Japan.
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Mental Health and Illness
commentary
Is Los Angeles County Successfully Creating a Youth Movement Around Mental Health Issues?
Rebecca L. Collins
Dec 6, 2018
Thrive Global
A new community engagement campaign called WhyWeRise seeks to increase awareness of mental health access as a civil rights issue and increase civic engagement. The campaign reached its target audience—people aged 14 to 24—and showed signs of changing attitudes toward mental illness.
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Migrants
commentary
America's Overwhelmed Immigration System
Blas Nunez-Neto
Dec 5, 2018
Dallas Morning News
The Trump administration's options to deal with the surge of asylum seekers arriving at the U.S. border appear to be limited. What policies could help address the problem?
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Marijuana
commentary
Navigating Cannabis Legalization 2.0
Beau Kilmer @BeauKilmer, Mark A. R. Kleiman
Dec 4, 2018
The Hill
As the next round of states debate marijuana legalization, they would do well to contemplate allowing state governments to control the wholesale prices and linking the price of cannabis to its potency.
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Displaced Persons
commentary
Europe's Five Strategies for Coping with Migration Pressure
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson, Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Dec 3, 2018
The National Interest
Migration will likely continue to be a long-term challenge for European politics, institutions, governments, and values. Even with a drop in numbers and the development of institutional capabilities to manage migration, the European Union still has important tasks ahead of it.
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Decisionmaking
commentary
Evidence Synthesis—Behind the Scenes
Sarah Giles, Susan Guthrie, Catriona Manville @CMManville
Nov 30, 2018
The Royal Society
The Royal Society and RAND Europe recently published an evidence synthesis on the impacts of ammonia emissions from agriculture on biodiversity. As well as aiming to provide a useful summary of the evidence to inform ongoing policy discussions, the study was intended to test the Royal Society's recently developed principles for good evidence synthesis for policy.
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Disaster Recovery Operations
commentary
Overlapping Environmental Disasters Put a Strain on Gulf Communities
Melissa L. Finucane @MelissaFinucane
Nov 29, 2018
NOLA.com
For Gulf Coast residents, dealing with the impact of the Deepwater Horizon disaster is challenging enough. With the Taylor Energy spill, they may face an even more daunting recovery, one that could take decades. Acknowledging the extent and complexity of recovery is the first step toward supporting coastal communities to build their resilience in the face of overlapping disasters.
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Media Literacy
commentary
What Role Should Schools Play in Teaching Pupils to Spot Fake News?
Asha Carpenter
Nov 28, 2018
Schools Week
Since social media is not regulated in the same way as traditional news media, anyone can convey information with little fact-checking. So how do we help children develop critical literacy skills to enable them to interpret the media correctly?
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