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U.S. Cooperation with China and Russia, Artificial Intelligence, War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on U.S. security cooperation with China and Russia, artificial intelligence, consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine, and more.

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What Will Putin Do Next?

Vladimir Putin faces no elections, no party or state institutions that threaten his rule, no domestic political opposition. He is not moved by humanitarian crises or overly concerned about international condemnation. The longer the war drags on, the more risks Putin might be willing to take to meet his objectives. What might he do next?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Preventing Violence in Schools: How to Encourage Students to Report Threats

One of the most consistent findings in research on school shootings is that someone knew an attack was possible but didn't report it. There are ways schools can better encourage students to come forward when they see or hear something concerning: tip lines, training, and a lot more trust.

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The End and Beyond

We don't know yet know how the war in Ukraine may end. Despite heavy casualties, neither side is visibly falling apart or appears ready to back down. While no scenario can be excluded, the unequal strategic situation pushes future war scenarios toward variations of a stalemate.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Ukraine Should Not Close Off Routes to the Negotiating Table

Ukraine and Russia will probably eventually return to the table—perhaps not this month or even this year—and therefore it is important to debate ideas for how to get there, not to dismiss them.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing

Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Remembering Slain LA Bishop David O'Connell and His Tireless Community Work

Bishop Dave left a mark on so many lives, and, even after becoming bishop, remained close to the community he so loved. The world has lost a fearless and compassionate leader.

Kathryn Pitkin Derose

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A Look Back at the War in Afghanistan, National Security Risks, Hospice Care: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the United States “stayed the unfavorable course” in Afghanistan, the Ohio train derailment, state data on gun deaths, and more.

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To Heal Russia, Exorcise Fear

In ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort in the Kremlin have invited disaster on Russia. For centuries, Russia's secret police have caused the country harm and terrorized its people. Only by easing its deadly grip might Russians gain freedom.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Philip Wasielewski

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Bad Idea: Looking for Easy Solutions for PPBE Reform

The means by which the Department of Defense decides how to spend its budget has long been criticized as needlessly complex and incapable of helping policymakers choose among investments to meet strategic goals. Seeking solutions, Congress created the Commission on PPBE Reform in the 2022 defense policy bill. But the reforms the system needs may not be as obvious as they seem.

Jonathan P. Wong @jonpwong

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What Does Russia's War on Ukraine Mean for the International Order?

Russia's war on Ukraine has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. It has also highlighted the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea

There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?

Erik Mobrand

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: NATO's Future

Security issues have again become paramount among NATO members, making the alliance far more relevant. But NATO's southeastern flank is soft and the war in Ukraine has exposed its fault lines.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins