The RAND Blog

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What the Invasion of Ukraine Might Teach Us About a Potential Taiwan Crisis

Chinese leaders are learning from the conflict in Ukraine, not just by observing Russia's actions, but also the West's response. By also learning from the conflict, the United States, Taiwan, and other like-minded partners can help ensure that Beijing comes away from the current crisis with a greater appreciation of the risks that attacking Taiwan would entail.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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A New and More Dangerous Drug Market Requires a New Approach

Synthetic opioids are likely to increasingly reach illegal drug markets. Failure to recognize and respond to how rapidly drug markets have changed with the arrival of illegally manufactured synthetic opioids will continue to put many at risk of exposure to fentanyl, endangering the lives of hundreds of thousands more Americans for years to come.

Bryce Pardo, David Luckey

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Why It Could Be a Strategic Mistake to Rule Out a No-Fly Zone Policy

The United States has been willing to entertain many forms of support to Ukraine, but senior administration and congressional leaders have categorically ruled out declaring a no-fly zone over the country. While American policymakers are rightfully hesitant to implement a no-fly zone policy, it could be a strategic mistake to say so in public.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Where Is Business in Russia?

Businesses in Russia have little hope of making a full recovery and operating normally in the global economy unless the West lifts its extraordinary sanctions. Political and civic engagement may be essential to protect their value and the interests of shareholders and employees.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Will South Korea's New President Reshape Regional Dynamics?

Yoon Suk-yeol has been elected president of South Korea. With a tall order to fill at home and abroad, the Yoon administration has the potential to reshape South Korea's future and relationships in the region. The path that he carves for Seoul in the coming weeks and months will be watched with keen interest marked by hopes and apprehension by his neighbors.

Soo Kim

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What Is Really Polarizing Schools Right Now?

Political polarization that rises to the level of interfering with schooling isn't simply a headache; it's a fundamental problem for public education. When there is deep disagreement over the essentials—what schools teach, how they keep children safe—schools are at risk of becoming ungovernable.

Heather L. Schwartz @schwartz_hl

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Keeping Russians Informed About Ukraine Could Help End This War

Russia has taken increasingly aggressive actions to restrict access of information about the war in Ukraine. Ensuring that the Russian people know the truth about what their government is doing in Ukraine could bring this war to an end soon rather than later.

Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Andrew Radin @andrewmradin

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Putin's State of Mind, the Digital Skills Gap, International Women's Day: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin, understanding America’s gun policy debate, improving teacher diversity, and more.

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China's Security Contractors Have Avoided the Fate of Russia's Military Contractors, So Far

China's approach to private security contractors is much more limited in scope and effects than Russia's use of private military contractors. But indicators suggest that Chinese planners see benefits in expanding and maturing China's use of private contractors, which creates the potential for dangerous results for China and the rest of the world.

Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc

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What the Media Might Have Missed About South Korea's Elections

The toxicity of the anti-feminist discourse in South Korea does not accurately reflect the gender-related tensions and problems that most Koreans currently face. The obstacles to improving gender equity are more mundane and more ubiquitous than the hyperbole of anti-feminism suggests.

Erik Mobrand

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'Grow Your Own' Prep Programs Can Improve Diversity of the Teaching Workforce

Black and Hispanic educators are much more likely than white educators to say they plan to leave the profession, threatening to exacerbate an already overwhelming lack of diversity. Local, “grow your own” alternative teacher preparation programs can help to strengthen the diversity of the teaching workforce, as well as enable districts to address broader staffing challenges.

Benjamin K. Master, Christopher Joseph Doss @Chris_J_Doss

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Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge

In the early 1970s, amid a worldwide rash of bombings, hijackings, and hostage-takings, RAND researchers began creating the first international database of terrorist incidents. Maintained until 2009, it chronicles more than 40,000 terrorist attacks since 1968.

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Is Putin Irrational? What Nuclear Strategic Theory Says About Deterrence of Potentially Irrational Opponents

Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Putin might double down and lash out.

Edward Geist @sovietologist

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Exploring the Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts

A survey asked gun policy researchers, advocates, and congressional staffers who work on gun issues for their views on policies ranging from weapon bans to stand-your-ground laws. Regardless of where they stood, they were not so dissimilar in what they thought gun policies should be trying to accomplish.

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Russia Looks Less and Less Like India's Friend

India has strong ties with Russia dating back to the Cold War. But the geostrategic winds have shifted significantly in recent years, suggesting that India might want to reconsider the benefits of close Russia ties.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman