The RAND Blog

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The Future and Past of War and Disease

The U.S. government is actively reviewing its efforts to counter biological attacks and the Department of Defense is taking steps that could allow it to perform day-to-day operations during a pandemic, but it might not be preparing adequately for a future large-scale operation during a more-transmissible and lethal pandemic.

Michael Spirtas, Stephen Webber

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Shaping China's Ambitions

Managing a rivalry with a regionally ambitious, globally engaged peer competitor of China's economic heft and technological sophistication will be one of the most profound strategic tests the United States has ever faced. A major lesson from its last global rivalry is that mistaken impressions about the nature of the rival and the character of the rivalry can create momentum for dangerous policies.

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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The Premier Who Helped Change U.S.-Japan Relations

A Japanese politician who played an important part in the history of U.S.-Japan relations died recently, and chances are you've never heard of him. Kaifu Toshiki was Japan's prime minister from 1989 to 1991, a critical time in U.S.-Japan relations as the world was transitioning from the Cold War to the fog that lay beyond.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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American Deterrence's Missing Half

If American deterrence fails, it may not be because adversaries doubt U.S. military capabilities so much as they doubt American willpower. Shifting those perceptions will require not just defense authorizations, but also repairing the social fabric here at home.

Raphael S. Cohen

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U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Silver Bullet?

U.S. military assistance to Ukraine now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Scott Boston

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U.S.-Russia Diplomacy, Citizen Science, America's Blood Supply: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on U.S.-Russia diplomacy in the context of the Ukraine crisis, the value of citizen science, strengthening the America's blood supply, and more.

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Ukraine Needs Help Surviving Airstrikes, Not Just Killing Tanks

A Russian large-scale multidomain operation would be devastating for the Ukrainian military and people, and Ukraine should work to prevent that. But steps can also be taken to reduce the effects of the air and missile strikes that would likely lead off such an operation.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

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Biden's Rhetoric on Ukraine Has Been Quite Moderate. Here's What That Means

President Biden's public statements since December have focused on how further Russian invasion of Ukraine would result in material consequences. His rhetorical restraint may have important implications for the current conflict.

Abigail S. Post

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Geoengineering, the Russia-Ukraine Crisis, Biosimilar Drugs: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on technologies that manipulate the climate, what NATO could do to address the Ukraine-Russia crisis, and cost savings from biosimilar drugs.

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Could the U.S. Play Offense in China's Back Yard?

Relations with Cambodia and Laos have fallen victim to the U.S. administration's foreign policy priority of shared values over shared interests. This approach has failed to make headway in Cambodia and Laos, isolates the United States in a region where few countries are true democracies, and unnecessarily cedes ground to Beijing.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Speaking Aloud What NATO Has Left Unsaid Could Help Ease Ukraine-Russia Impasse

A statement that NATO has no intention to offer Ukraine membership at present should only be made in return for a tangible drawdown of Russian forces on the border. It concedes nothing to declare that NATO is not planning to do something it has no intention of doing anyway.

Samuel Charap @scharap

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Extremism and Substance Use Disorder, Criminal Background Checks, Vaccine Diplomacy: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the parallels between extremism and substance use disorder, a better way to measure recidivism risk, global vaccine diplomacy, and more.

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Is Russia's Su-75 'Checkmate' Aircraft a Case of Vapor Marketing?

During a Moscow air show last summer, Russia rolled out a mockup of the Su-75, a multipurpose fighter-bomber designed to compete in the global marketplace. But given the Russian aerospace sector's difficulties in developing, let alone delivering, advanced combat aircraft, prospective buyers should consider a range of options to meet defense needs.

John V. Parachini @JohnParachini, Peter A. Wilson

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Taiwan and Six Potential New Year's Resolutions for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance

How might the United States and Japan prepare for possible conflict with China over Taiwan, and ensure forces are postured to operate together? The alliance could benefit from greater clarity, and practical conversations could make a better and stronger alliance in the new year.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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What Sounds Do a Million Random Digits Make?

The title of RAND's 1955 classic, A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates, doesn't exactly dance off the page. But Paul Dunham, a sound artist in New Zealand, thought the work could make its own kind of music.