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Nuclear Deterrence, Russia and Iran, Deepfakes: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how much is “enough” for U.S. nuclear forces, the budding Russia-Iran partnership, the challenge of detecting deepfakes, and more.

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The City of Pittsburgh's a Movie Star

Pennsylvania lawmakers and other stakeholders should consider updates to the film tax credit law and economic development strategy to improve the state's competitiveness, enhance the stability of the industry, and fill gaps in the current workforce.

Evan D. Peet @evandpeet

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The United States Isn't Ready for the New Age of AI-Fueled Disinformation

Generative AI offers China and other bad actors the potential to fulfill longstanding desires to shape the global conversation. It is vital that the U.S. government and social media platforms recognize this threat and work together to address it immediately.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, William Marcellino

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Alliance Assignments: Defense Priorities For Key NATO States

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has galvanized NATO governments to address longstanding shortcomings in defense preparations. NATO is once again committed to collectively defending all allied territory and airspace. But current allied defense capabilities and posture are not adequate to do so.

Stephen J. Flanagan, Anna Dowd

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F-16s Are No Magic Bullet for Ukraine, but They Are a Game Changer with the Right Munitions

Will F-16s win the war for Ukraine? No. Only ground victories and unacceptable Russian losses will force Putin to negotiate. However, a long-term commitment to supporting a well-equipped, sizable F-16 force will improve the likelihood of Ukrainian success even if an F-16 never shoots a Russian fighter.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

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Rightsizing the Russia Threat

A proper understanding of the threat Russia poses must begin with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But his military cannot even fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the constraints that should bound the debate about the extent of the threat.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Kaspar Pucek

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Trauma in the Intelligence Community, Climate Change, Cybersecurity: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the toll that trauma takes in the intelligence community, how climate change will affect the federal budget, why it may be time for a new cybersecurity standard, and more.

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Japan Risks Reputation in Oceania with Fukushima Discharge

Japan's decision last month to begin discharging treated radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean from its destroyed Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is fairly unpopular in Oceania, potentially damaging Tokyo's reputation in this increasingly strategic region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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North Korea and China Aren't the Allies You Think They Are

China and North Korea have a history of friction, despite being seen as allies. As Russia, China, and North Korea move toward a closer trilateral partnership, the United States and its allies need to recognize that there are seams in the relationships that can be used to undermine it.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Landmines in Ukraine: Lessons for China and Taiwan

In shaping patterns of future warfare, militaries across the world will be seeking to absorb the key lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War. Chinese strategists are particularly attuned to the major role that landmines have played in the conflict.

Lyle Goldstein, Nathan Waechter

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Poland and Ukraine: Defending Europe's Future

In the Cold War, West Germany, with robust NATO support, stood guard at the center of the Iron Curtain. Looking ahead, Poland and Ukraine along with NATO will defend Europe's center at the front line. Insights from the West German experience might help them.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Peter A. Wilson

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UFO Research Is Only Harmed by Antigovernment Rhetoric

There is an undercurrent of conspiracy theory and, relatedly, antigovernment sentiment brewing around the issue of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). If it grows, it could prove toxic to any factual and scientific discussion of UAPs.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, Caitlin McCulloch

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Escalation in Ukraine, a Trilateral Imperialist Threat, Disaster Recovery: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the risk of escalation in Ukraine, the threat of a North-Korea-Russia-China partnership, the economics of disaster recovery, and more.

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Cyber Attacks Reveal Uncomfortable Truths About U.S. Defenses

Without government investments and policies to drive transparency and a clear understanding of what cybersecurity tools do, how well they work, and how securely they are built, the United States risks continuing to offer its adversaries the means to undermine its systems and, ultimately, its security.

Chad Heitzenrater

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Taking the Measure of AI and National Security

Transformative technologies should not be abandoned due to their risks. Instead, we should focus on understanding the threats, implementing necessary countermeasures, and utilizing the tools in a safer and more secure manner.

Christopher A. Mouton, Caleb Lucas