The RAND Blog

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The End and Beyond

We don't know yet know how the war in Ukraine may end. Despite heavy casualties, neither side is visibly falling apart or appears ready to back down. While no scenario can be excluded, the unequal strategic situation pushes future war scenarios toward variations of a stalemate.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Ukraine Should Not Close Off Routes to the Negotiating Table

Ukraine and Russia will probably eventually return to the table—perhaps not this month or even this year—and therefore it is important to debate ideas for how to get there, not to dismiss them.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing

Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Remembering Slain LA Bishop David O'Connell and His Tireless Community Work

Bishop Dave left a mark on so many lives, and, even after becoming bishop, remained close to the community he so loved. The world has lost a fearless and compassionate leader.

Kathryn Pitkin Derose

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A Look Back at the War in Afghanistan, National Security Risks, Hospice Care: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the United States “stayed the unfavorable course” in Afghanistan, the Ohio train derailment, state data on gun deaths, and more.

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To Heal Russia, Exorcise Fear

In ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort in the Kremlin have invited disaster on Russia. For centuries, Russia's secret police have caused the country harm and terrorized its people. Only by easing its deadly grip might Russians gain freedom.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Philip Wasielewski

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Bad Idea: Looking for Easy Solutions for PPBE Reform

The means by which the Department of Defense decides how to spend its budget has long been criticized as needlessly complex and incapable of helping policymakers choose among investments to meet strategic goals. Seeking solutions, Congress created the Commission on PPBE Reform in the 2022 defense policy bill. But the reforms the system needs may not be as obvious as they seem.

Jonathan P. Wong @jonpwong

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What Does Russia's War on Ukraine Mean for the International Order?

Russia's war on Ukraine has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. It has also highlighted the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea

There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?

Erik Mobrand

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: NATO's Future

Security issues have again become paramount among NATO members, making the alliance far more relevant. But NATO's southeastern flank is soft and the war in Ukraine has exposed its fault lines.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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The Ukrainian Army Is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

Much has been said about Ukraine's astounding success in the information battlefield. How might the U.S. military emulate Ukraine's success to not only help win wars, but also to address its flagging campaign to recruit new members?

Todd C. Helmus @Helmus

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RAND President and CEO Presenting to House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

RAND President and CEO Jason Matheny appeared on February 28, 2023, before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. His remarks covered advances in synthetic biology and artificial intelligence and their potential impact on national security.

Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: A Bleak Outlook for Russia

Whatever may happen in Ukraine or in Russia, things will never be the same. A Russian failure in Ukraine could lead to escalation and a world-changing wider war, or it could lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make for a very different world.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins