The RAND Blog

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Ukrainian Refugees, U.S. and Allied Defense Strategy, Threats from AI: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on supporting Ukrainian refugees, the future of U.S. and allied defense strategy, existential threats posed by artificial intelligence, and more.

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Truth Decay and National Security

Even if the U.S. national security apparatus can operate entirely outside of politics, it remains exposed to the effects of Truth Decay—the diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life. Little work is being done to understand how severe the impact of Truth Decay is on national security and, more importantly, how to mitigate it.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill, Caitlin McCulloch

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It Should Not Have Been a Surprise: The Threat from Putin's Russia

The recent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, left the world asking a hard question: “Are we in a new Cold War with Russia?” Our answer is to a different, and harder, and more important question: Is Russia already at war with the West?

Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn, Thom Shanker

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Service Members and Their Families Are Paying for the Air Force's Fiscal Shortfalls

The United States faces the critical task of rebalancing long-term military personnel funding for sustainable workforce development and utilization. Otherwise, it could fail to keep the faith with the U.S. military's most precious asset: people and families.

Kelly Atkinson

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Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, Neurodiversity, Russia's 'Forever War': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on public reports of unidentified aerial phenomena, neurodiversity and national security, Ukraine's path to victory, and more.

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UFOs Are Not the Only Potential Threat in American Skies

How can the United States best monitor its millions of square miles of domestic airspace for unidentified anomalous phenomena—what were once called UFOs—or anything else? Public reporting could help officials identify potential threats—but it'd help if the sightings being reported were actually unknown aerial phenomena and not U.S. military aircraft.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, Ashley Gromis, et al.

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Why the United States Still Needs Ground Forces in Europe

The bulked-up U.S. presence in Europe will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.

Andrew Radin @andrewmradin, Gian Gentile

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Taiwan-Straitjacket

The surging security relationship between the United States and Taiwan is exposing some long-simmering differences, with questions about Taiwan's defense investments atop Washington's list of concerns.

Michael J. Lostumbo

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The EU Can't Treat Ukrainian Refugees Like Short-Term Visitors

Although EU countries, communities, and citizens have been very welcoming to Ukrainian refugees, it is not enough to treat them as short-term visitors, meet their immediate humanitarian needs, and let them wait out the war. By educating and employing them instead, EU countries can enrich their own communities and support Ukraine.

Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson, Thomas S. Szayna

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A Winnable War

Many commentators have likened the current Russia-Ukraine war to the Western Front of World War I. A better historical precedent to understand the current fighting in Ukraine can be found in the U.S. Army's experience fighting against Nazi forces in the hedgerows of Normandy in France in the summer of 1944.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

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Russia's Frontlines, India's 'Power' Moves, Food Security: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on dysfunction on Russia’s front lines, India’s regional diplomacy, stopping mass shooters who seek fame, and more.

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ChatGPT Is Creating New Risks for National Security

Large language models like ChatGPT and Claude offer a wide range of beneficial applications. But there are significant risks associated with their use that demand a coordinated effort among partner nations to forge a solid, integrated defense against the threat of malign information operations.

Christopher A. Mouton

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Fighting in Sudan Is Creating a Rift Among U.S. Security Partners

While the national security community often focuses on strategic competition between the United States and its near-peer adversaries, the conflict in Sudan is a good reminder that regional powers are also engaged in competition for influence and resources.

Alexandra Stark, Michelle Grisé

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All Is Not Well on Russian Front Lines

For now, despite the Kremlin's dysfunctional decisions, Russia's defensive positions in Ukraine are still secure. But for how long? The cumulative pressure of bad choices is mounting and the problems endemic to Russia's campaign in Ukraine are likely to worsen.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

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Early Years Education Reform: Could Life Chances for Children in England Be Significantly Improved?

To ensure equal access to high-quality early years provision in England, it is crucial to learn from successful systems worldwide and implement key recommendations. Prioritizing highly qualified staff, maintaining appropriate staff-to-child ratios, and removing barriers for disadvantaged families are essential steps toward achieving this goal.

Elena Rosa Speciani