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International Diplomacy
commentary
How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 20, 2017
The Cipher Brief
China has key pressure points at its disposal to help deter North Korea from nuclear activities. It could cut off oil supplies or limit other trade, or crack down on illicit finance networks as many of the banks laundering money for the regime are in China. It could also stop shielding Pyongyang at the UN.
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Japan
commentary
Giving Japan a Military
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 20, 2017
The Japan Times
After 70 years, Japan may finally be on the cusp of acquiring its own military. Legally, that is. Prime Minister Abe has proposed a change to Japan's constitution to give legal standing to the Self-Defense Forces, and it's long overdue.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 19, 2017
Newsweek
Terrorism has escalated horizontally, not vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks. The trick will be to predict and prevent new plots.
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Education Policy
commentary
How to Solve a Problem Like Missing Data
Alex Sutherland, Catherine L. Saunders
Jun 16, 2017
Statistics Views
Missing data is a challenge for statisticians, policymakers, and analysts, particularly when a robust evidence base is needed. How can this problem be addressed?
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Syria
commentary
When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 16, 2017
Defense One
The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael Chase, Logan Ma
Jun 14, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
U.S. Interests and World Community
Michael J. Mazarr
Jun 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Evidence shows that many countries consider themselves part of an emerging global community. This represents America's most potent competitive advantage. U.S. strategy is stronger when it works to reflect and build such a community.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
The Diplomat
Being a proactive contributor to peace involves risk if a country is serious about gaining real-world experience. Pulling out of South Sudan deprives Japan's Self-Defense Force of crucial operational experience and sends a confusing message to the United States and the international community.
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North Korea
blog
Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia
Jun 8, 2017
The increasing tempo of developments in North Korea is of growing concern not only to South Korea but also to the U.S., Japan, and even China. At a RAND event, senior researcher Bruce Bennett discussed how complex the situation is and what options the U.S. has going forward.
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North Korea
commentary
End the Korean War, Finally
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
New York Times
Sixty-four years ago, the Korean War was suspended by a cease-fire. A peace treaty was never signed. Standing ready to formally end this old war may be the key to dismantling North Korea's nuclear program without starting a new one.
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Bioterrorism
commentary
A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a Second Look
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Jun 7, 2017
The Hill
President Trump's proposed budget would close a laboratory dedicated to countering bioterrorism and providing the science behind bioterrorism response and recovery. Policymakers should assess whether the lab's capabilities are worth the price when weighed against the potential cost of a bioterror attack.
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Information Operations
commentary
NATO: Prepared for Countering Disinformation Operations in the Baltic States?
Marta Kepe @martakepe
Jun 7, 2017
European Geostrategy
NATO alliance countries deploying to the Baltics should prepare to deal with increasing levels of disinformation. An open and robust communication strategy could be crucial in tackling a sophisticated Russian disinformation campaign aimed at disrupting support for these deployments.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye, Jeffrey Martini
Jun 7, 2017
The National Interest
Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.
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Violence
commentary
Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 7, 2017
Fortune
The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
London Bridge Attack: The Latest Example of 'Pure Terror'
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 5, 2017
The Hill
Terrorists can attack anything, anywhere, any time. Preventing all pure terrorism is impossible, but seeking ways to divert vulnerable people from the terror path as Prime Minister May has discussed is a worthy step in that direction.
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The RAND Blog

How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea

Giving Japan a Military

Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?

How to Solve a Problem Like Missing Data

When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?

Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context

U.S. Interests and World Community

Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal

Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia

End the Korean War, Finally

A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a Second Look

NATO: Prepared for Countering Disinformation Operations in the Baltic States?

Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides

Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?

London Bridge Attack: The Latest Example of 'Pure Terror'

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