Africa

Military Facilities
commentary
A Ruling from the Hague Threatens a U.S. and British Military Base in Asia
James Black
Apr 1, 2019
The National Interest
A remote and obscure tropical atoll in the Indian Ocean would seem an unlikely stage for the latest act of the United Kingdom's unfolding Brexit drama and the newest challenge to U.S. global power projection. But a nonbinding verdict in The Hague calls into question the legitimacy of the UK's administration and the major U.S. military presence on the islands' largest atoll, Diego Garcia.
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Libya
commentary
Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?
Nathan Vest
Mar 27, 2019
RealClearWorld
The Libyan Civil War has largely been contained to pockets of violence. Prolonged battles decimated cities such as Benghazi, Derna, and Sirte, but the majority of the country has been spared large-scale destruction. However, that could change soon.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Good and Bad of the Trump Administration's New Africa Strategy
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Dec 20, 2018
The Hill
The Trump administration's Africa strategy combines a turn away from counterterrorism as a priority, emphasis on trade, and working to help Africans solve their own problems, all of which could be opportunities for a more positive relationship. The implied prioritization of great power competition, however, suggests the real risk of a return to Cold War-era approach.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Cameroon's Days as Reliable U.S. Partner May Be Numbered
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Oct 26, 2018
United Press International
The Cameroonian government is becoming more authoritarian under President Paul Biya. His re-election could be bad news for Cameroon and the region, but also for the United States.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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Democracy
commentary
In Africa, Presidential Term Limits Are Working
Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Apr 24, 2018
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
World news regularly features headlines about African power grabs and constitutional coups. Presidents Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia both adhered to term limits, stepping aside after finishing their second terms. Are they part of a broader trend?
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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Counterinsurgency
commentary
Mali Is France's Afghanistan, but with a Difference
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Dec 1, 2017
War on the Rocks
At first glance the comparison between the French military operations in Mali and America’s involvement in Afghanistan is compelling, and in some important ways, accurate. It also presents some fundamental differences that give reason for optimism in France.
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Civilian and Commercial Drones
commentary
Drones Could Deliver Change to Africa
Shira Efron @ShiraEfron
Nov 17, 2017
Inside Sources
Drones could transform Africa's urban and rural infrastructure and enhance its agricultural productivity. But deployment of drones on the continent faces technological, economic, social, and legal, and regulatory challenges.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Why Africa Could Provide an 'ISIS Renaissance'
Antonia Ward
Nov 15, 2017
The National Interest
ISIS has been one of the most formidable and well-organized terrorist groups in history and it would be naive to assume that ISIS will simply cease operations in the face of recent losses. More likely, the group, along with its many followers, will attempt to disperse to a new base, and parts of Africa are likely targets for a new caliphate.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
What Is the Sahel G5 Force and Why Should the U.S. Support It?
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Nov 6, 2017
The Hill
The French Joint Force G-5 Sahel plan offers the possibility of strengthening the Sahel nations' efforts to combat terrorism. Supporting the French initiative is a worthy undertaking, provided, of course, that everyone understands what it is and is not.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Real Questions We Should Be Asking About Niger
Philip Mudd, Andrew Liepman
Oct 30, 2017
CNN
In the wake of the deaths of four U.S. servicemen in Niger, Americans are embroiled in a pointless political squabble. The focus should be on developing a greater understanding of the risks and benefits of U.S. counterterrorism operations abroad.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
U.S. Helping Niger Halt Spread of Terror in Region
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Oct 25, 2017
The Hill
Niger is at the epicenter of the war on terror, with local and regional violent groups based there and entering the country from nearly every side. U.S. troops are there to train Niger's security services and not to fight. They are also assisting French forces who are fighting there.
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Migrants
commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Amanda Kadlec, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Sep 25, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Sep 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Developments in the Sahel are cause for alarm. Despite the presence of an active French counterterrorism force and a UN peacekeeping mission, al Qaeda groups are thriving. The region would benefit from approaches that combine police and military operations with economic development and improved governance.
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The Leonard Schaeffer Medals

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Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Developing Strategies for Summer Learning

Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs

Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change

Africa

A Ruling from the Hague Threatens a U.S. and British Military Base in Asia

Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?

The Good and Bad of the Trump Administration's New Africa Strategy

Cameroon's Days as Reliable U.S. Partner May Be Numbered

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

In Africa, Presidential Term Limits Are Working

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Expanding the ISIS Brand

Mali Is France's Afghanistan, but with a Difference

Drones Could Deliver Change to Africa

Why Africa Could Provide an 'ISIS Renaissance'

What Is the Sahel G5 Force and Why Should the U.S. Support It?

The Real Questions We Should Be Asking About Niger

U.S. Helping Niger Halt Spread of Terror in Region

Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya

Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance

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