Africa

Mali
commentary
Mali Violence Shows Limits of Intervention
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Nov 22, 2019
RealClearDefense
Each year brings more violence to Mali and its neighbors. Mali and Burkina Faso are rapidly destabilizing; the situation in Niger is less dire, but that is hardly a commendation. Why is the violence in Mali getting worse given the significant efforts by the international community to stem it?
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Politics and Government
commentary
Zimbabwe’s Neighbors Express Solidarity Against a False Enemy
Jon Temin, Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes, Mark Bellamy
Oct 25, 2019
The Washington Post
The notion that sanctions are primarily responsible for the economic collapse in Zimbabwe is a useful fiction promoted by that country's authoritarian elite. In reality, the ruling party, in power for 39 years, has no one to blame but itself.
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China
blog
China's 70th Anniversary, Wargaming, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 4, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on what the future holds for China, the importance of gender diversity in wargaming, how Army families address life's challenges, and more.
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Democracy
commentary
African Dictators Have Been Losing Power—Some to Democratic Governments. Militaries Can Tip the Scales Toward Democracy
Nathaniel Allen, Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Sep 16, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Africa's security forces most often make headlines when they commit atrocities, crack down on protesters, or seize power in coups. But Africa's troops can also contribute to democracy and peace when they lay down their arms or refuse orders to turn their guns against the people.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Why Ethiopia Sailed While Zimbabwe Sank
Hilary Matfess, Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Sep 9, 2019
Foreign Policy
At a time when outside powers are calibrating how they respond to political transitions around the world, the divergent paths of Ethiopia and Zimbabwe illustrate their precariousness and offer lessons for how the international community can support democratization processes in Africa and beyond.
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Information Operations
blog
Social Manipulation, Boko Haram, Citizen Scientists: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 6, 2019
This weekly recap looks at hostile social manipulation, stopping the next Boko Haram, a citizen-science success story, and more.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Counterproductive Counterinsurgency: Is Mozambique Creating the Next Boko Haram?
Hilary Matfess, Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Sep 3, 2019
Lawfare
Despite recent claims of ties to the Islamic State, the threat in Mozambique from the Islamist insurgent group al-Sunnah wa Jamaah appears to be domestic, with scarce evidence of direct ties to international extremist groups. But if the Mozambique government continues to respond in a heavy-handed manner, the threat is likely to grow, with potentially devastating effects for the country and region.
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Counterinsurgency
commentary
Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
David E. Thaler, Yousuf Abdelfatah
Aug 12, 2019
Small Wars Journal
Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.
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Military Facilities
commentary
A Ruling from the Hague Threatens a U.S. and British Military Base in Asia
James Black
Apr 1, 2019
The National Interest
A remote and obscure tropical atoll in the Indian Ocean would seem an unlikely stage for the latest act of the United Kingdom's unfolding Brexit drama and the newest challenge to U.S. global power projection. But a nonbinding verdict in The Hague calls into question the legitimacy of the UK's administration and the major U.S. military presence on the islands' largest atoll, Diego Garcia.
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Libya
commentary
Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?
Nathan Vest
Mar 27, 2019
RealClearWorld
The Libyan Civil War has largely been contained to pockets of violence. Prolonged battles decimated cities such as Benghazi, Derna, and Sirte, but the majority of the country has been spared large-scale destruction. However, that could change soon.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Good and Bad of the Trump Administration's New Africa Strategy
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Dec 20, 2018
The Hill
The Trump administration's Africa strategy combines a turn away from counterterrorism as a priority, emphasis on trade, and working to help Africans solve their own problems, all of which could be opportunities for a more positive relationship. The implied prioritization of great power competition, however, suggests the real risk of a return to Cold War-era approach.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Cameroon's Days as Reliable U.S. Partner May Be Numbered
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Oct 26, 2018
United Press International
The Cameroonian government is becoming more authoritarian under President Paul Biya. His re-election could be bad news for Cameroon and the region, but also for the United States.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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Democracy
commentary
In Africa, Presidential Term Limits Are Working
Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Apr 24, 2018
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
World news regularly features headlines about African power grabs and constitutional coups. Presidents Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia both adhered to term limits, stepping aside after finishing their second terms. Are they part of a broader trend?
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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Africa

Mali Violence Shows Limits of Intervention

Zimbabwe’s Neighbors Express Solidarity Against a False Enemy

China's 70th Anniversary, Wargaming, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap

African Dictators Have Been Losing Power—Some to Democratic Governments. Militaries Can Tip the Scales Toward Democracy

Why Ethiopia Sailed While Zimbabwe Sank

Social Manipulation, Boko Haram, Citizen Scientists: RAND Weekly Recap

Counterproductive Counterinsurgency: Is Mozambique Creating the Next Boko Haram?

Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency

A Ruling from the Hague Threatens a U.S. and British Military Base in Asia

Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?

The Good and Bad of the Trump Administration's New Africa Strategy

Cameroon's Days as Reliable U.S. Partner May Be Numbered

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

In Africa, Presidential Term Limits Are Working

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Expanding the ISIS Brand

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